销量预测结果记录
baseline:
rmsle1=0.0454 rmsle3=0.0450 rmsle7=0.0433
1、只使用销量
rmsle=0.0392
2、销量、weekday
rmsle=0.0373
预测周销量:
baseline:
rmsle2: 0.029815477426626328 (最近两周销量的平均)
1、销量、weekday
rmsle = 0.0294
2、销量、weekday、monthday
rmsle = 0.0238
3、销量、weekday、monthday、差值
rmsle = 0.0232
4、训练的时候处理异常点,测试的时候,样本不处理异常点
效果不好,异常点都要保留
5、训练结束后直接预测商品“红茶玛奇朵” ,注意,归一化要统一
rmsle14=0.0397
model =0.0356
===不进行归一化===
fine tuning (学习率下降到0.001,batch_size到64)
rmsle14=0.0397
model = 0.0329
===不进行归一化===
rmsle14 = 0.1404
model = 0.1259,0.1215, 0.1202 mape=0.1539
loss=0.6187
6、增加7天平均作为滑动窗口
rmsle14=0.1404 mape14=0.2271
model = 0.1213 mape=0.1578
model = 0.0989 mape=0.0989
======修正数据后=====
base14 = 0.1709
model = 0.1352