Getting a handle on

Getting a handle on

丑闻处理

Corporate crises drive the media and politicians wild.But do they damage shareholder value?

企业危机令媒体和政客疯狂，但 它们会损害股东价值吗？

 

A POPULAR riff doing the rounds in tech circles is that, if data are the new oil, then Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica fiasco(惨败) is the equivalent of Deepwater Horizon. That was the name of an oil platform that exploded in April 2010, coating(coat 外套，涂抹) the Gulf of Mexico and the reputation of BP, the firm responsible(涉事的), in a toxic（有毒的） slick.(圆滑的, 油滑的)

科技业界广为流传的一个说法是，假如数据是新的“石油”，那么Facebook在“剑桥分析”那儿栽的大跟头就相当于当年的墨西哥湾漏油事件。名为“深水地平线”的石油钻探平台在2010年4月爆炸，泄露的厚厚一层“毒油”覆盖了墨西哥湾海面，也让涉事的英国石油公司蒙羞。

Deepwater Horizon

英国石油漏油事故，是2010年4月20日发生的一起墨西哥湾外海油污外漏事件。

起因是英国石油公司所属一个名为“深水地平线”（DeepwaterHorizon）的外海钻油平台故障并爆炸，导致了此次漏油事故。爆炸同时导致了11名工作人员死亡及17人受伤。

据估计每天平均有12,000到100,000桶原油漏到墨西哥湾，导致至少2,500平方公里的海水被石油覆盖着。专家们担心此次漏油会导致一场环境灾难影响多种生物。此次漏油还影响了当地的渔业和旅游业。

 

 

Yet just how damaging are“Deepwater”incidents for firms and their owners over time? Perhaps they cease to matter after the initial burst of media purgatory(炼狱, (在炼狱中的)涤罪adj. 净化的), grovelling(匍匐；卑躬屈膝) by executives, celebratory cant(行话 假仁假义的) from competitors and politicians’grandstanding(为博取观众喝彩而卖弄(技巧),哗众取宠).To answer this,Schumpeter has looked at eight of the most notable corporate crises since 2010,including those at Uber and Wells Fargo. The evidence shows that these episodes were deeply injurious to the companies financial health, with the median firm losing 30% of its value since its crisis, when compared with a basket of its peers. Facebook should beware.

然而随着时间推移，这类“深水”事件对企业及其股东的损害究竟有多大？也许，在最幵始的媒体炮轰、高管谦卑道歉、对手幸灾乐祸、政客借题发挥过后，事件的影响就逐渐消弭了。

为回答这个问题，本专栏研究了自2010年以来八宗最受瞩目的企业危机，包括优步和富国银行的丑闻。证据表明，这些事件严重影响了企业的财务健康。与同行相比，危机发生后这些公司的中位数市值损失为30%。Facebook要当心了。

 

When a scandal first breaks, executives at the top of a firm and securities analysts outside it are often myopic((近视的,引申为目光短浅), viewing it as a public-relations blip(n.变故；暂时性问题；（电子装置发出的）短促尖声v.发信号) that will not alter a firm’s operations(运营) or its competitive position. In the case of Facebook, 44 of the 48 Wall Street analysts who cover it still rate it a "buy”,according to Bloomberg. Many have downplayed(v.对…轻描淡写；低估；低调处理) the scandal, even though Facebook s shares have dropped by 18% since the news broke（新闻曝光）on March 17th.

Of course, speculators and the media do frequently overreact to bad news. Credit Suisse, a bank, analysed 5,400 instances of American firms’ shares dropping by over 10% in one day, between 1990 and 2014. On average the shares regained two-thirds of the lost value within the subsequent 90 days. But big corporate scandals are in a different league. They capture the public imagination and lead to heat from politicians and regulators. Infrequent and idiosyncratic(特质的；特殊的), they defy easy analysis.

丑闻爆发之初，公司高管和外部证券分析师们往往目光短浅，觉得这只是个公关小插曲，不会影响公司的运营或竞争地位。据彭博拫道，针对Facebook事件，48名华尔街分析师中仍有44人将其评级定为“买入”。许多人“此丑闻不以为意，尽管自3月 1 日消息曝光以来，Facebook的股价已跌去18%。当然，投机者和媒体往往对坏消息反应过度。瑞信银行分析了1990年至2014年期间美国企业5400次股价在一天内下跌超过10%的情况。平均来说，这些企业在之后的90天内恢复了三分之二的损失价值。但大公司丑闻却另当别论。它们备受公众揣测，引来政客和监管机构关注。这类事件相对少见又特殊，分析起来颇具难度。

 

Consider two infamies(声名狼藉；恶名；恶名昭彰) from the 1980s. In 1982 Johnson & Johnson had to withdraw(召回) 31m bottles of the painkiller({医}止痛药，斩妖除魔；猎魔者) Tylenol from shops after seven people were poisoned in Chicago.Seven years later, the Exxon Valdez, a ship run by Exxon, struck(“strike”的过去式和过去分词,罢工、撞击) a reef(礁) in Alaska’s Prince William Sound and spilled 11m gallons of oil. Yet both firms’share prices recovered within a few weeks, and today they remain among the world’s most valuable companies.

以上世纪80年代的两宗丑闻为例。1982年，芝加哥有七人服用强生公司生产的止痛药泰诺后中毒，强生公司不得不召回3100万瓶泰诺。七年后，由埃克森美孚公司运营的埃克森-瓦尔迪兹号油轮(Exxon Valdez)在阿拉斯加(Alaska)的威廉王子湾（Prince William Sound）触礁并溢出 1100万加仑石油。然而，这两家公司的股价在几周内就收复失地，而且它们至今仍位列全球最高市值企业的行列。

 

美国强生(Johnson & Johnson)

Johnson & Johnson is an American multinational medical devices, pharmaceutical and consumer packaged goods manufacturing company founded in 1886. Its common stock is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the company is listed among the Fortune 500.

美国强生(Johnson & Johnson)成立于1886年，是世界上规模最大，产品多元化的医疗卫生保健品及消费者护理产品公司。强生公司是世界上最具综合性、分布范围最广的卫生保健产品制造商、健康服务提供商。公司创建于1886年，产品畅销于175个国家地区，生产及销售产品涉及护理产品、医药产品和医疗器材及诊断产品市场等多个领域。强生作为一家国际性大型企业，在全球57个国家建立了230多家分公司，拥有11万6千余名员工。旗下拥有强生婴儿、露得清、可伶可俐、娇爽、邦迪、达克宁、泰诺等众多知名品牌。

 

埃克森美孚公司（Exxon Mobil Corporation），是世界最大的非政府石油天然气生产商，总部设在美国德克萨斯州爱文市。在全球拥有生产设施和销售产品，在六大洲从事石油天然气勘探业务；在能源和石化领域的诸多方面位居行业领先地位。埃克森美孚见证了世界石油天然气行业的发展，其历史可以追溯到约翰·洛克菲勒于1882年创建的标准石油公司，至今已经跨越了125年的历程。埃克森美孚通过其关联公司在全球拥有8万多名员工，其严谨的投资方针以及致力于开发和运用行业领先技术及追求完善的运营管理，使之在全球位居行业领先地位。此外，它是全球第一家市值超过4000亿美元的公司。2016年7月20日，《财富》世界500强排行榜，埃克森美孚公司名列第六名；2017年6月7日，2017年《财富》美国500强排行榜发布，埃克森美孚公司排名第4位；

 

Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, plenty has changed. Social media mean that news of scandals spreads faster than ever and often in an exaggerated fashion. But consolidation has muted competition in many industries and made firms bigger and more resilient（可迅速恢复的；有适应力的；有弹性的）. Western governments may be willing to protect or bail out(保释(被告)；摆脱困境；纾困) big firms, not just banks, because they worry about job losses.

自2008年至2009年金融危机爆发以来，许多事情已经发生改变。社交媒体的盛行让丑闻的传播速度比以往任何时候都更快，且往往被添油加醋。但企业合并(consolidation)令许多行业的竞争减弱，公司规模更大，也更有复原力。西方政府因为担心失业的问题，可能也愿意为银行之外的大公司提供保护或纾困措施。

 

The eight firms in the sample have all been seared(烙印，烧焦) by scandal. All were large before their calamity(灾难), with a market value of at least $15bn. Their problems were different, but all led to a media scrum((橄榄球赛中双方球员)争球,敏捷软件开发) and prompted politicians and regulators to intervene. In all but one case, the firm’s boss left as a result. The figures measure returns in dollars, including dividends (for Uber, reports of private market valuations are used).

本研究涉及的八家公司都受到丑闻拖累。在“灾难爆发前，它们都是市值不低于150亿美元的大企业。虽然问 =题各不相同，但都引来媒体争相报道，促使政客和监管机构插手干预。其中七家公司均以总裁辞职收场。相关数据以美元计算回报，包括股息〔有关优步的数据来自对私人市场估值的拫道）。

As well as BP, the infamous eight include another energy firm,Petrobras, a Brazilian giant at the centre of the "car- wash”corruption scandal that erupted in 2014.Two firms beginning with "V”are included for their antics（滑稽搞笑的动作；愚蠢的） in 2015: Volkswagen, which admitted fiddling emissions tests, and Valeant, a drugs firm accused of price gouging and publishing inaccurate accounts. Wells Fargo is included for a mis-selling scandal that blew up in 2016, as is Uber, where the wheels came off in 2017- The last two firms are Equifax, a credit bureau which last year said hackers had gained access to data on 143m clients, and United Airlines, which set new lows for airline conduct when it asked security staff to remove a passenger from an overbooked(超售) flight, who was injured in the process.

 

除了英国石油公司外，这八家蒙羞的公司中另外还有一家能源企业巴西的巨头企业Petrobras，它在2014年的“洗车”贪腐丑闻中成为众矢之的。两家名字以字母V开头的公司因为2015年爆出的不当行径位列其中：大众汽车和瓦伦特制药。前者承认排放测试造假，后者被指控哄抬药价和发布虚假财务信息。富国银行则是在2016年被爆出违规销售的丑闻。优步也因违规操作在2017年遭遇滑铁卢。剩下的两家公司是征信公司叫Equifax和美国联合航空公司(United Airlines 美联航)，前者在去年披露自己的1.43亿客户资料被黑客窃取，后者则因超售机票并动用安保人员把一位乘客强行拖下飞机致其受伤，刷新了航空业操守下限。危机袭来后，所有这些公司的股价均出现绝对下跌。

 Volkswagen(德语) 大众牌汽车(西德生产的一种廉价小型汽车)

上汽大众成立于1985年，是一家中德合资企业，也是国内大规模的现代化轿车生产基地之一。总部位于上海安亭，目前拥有朗逸、途观、桑塔纳、帕萨特和斯柯达品牌等系列产品。

 

 

 

 

 

After their crises struck all these firms suffered an absolute drop in their share prices. At the lowest point the median share price was down by 33%, although it took anywhere from two weeks to two years for different firms to reach this nadir(最糟糕的时刻；最低点). In most cases the companies have clawed back the absolute losses they suffered. However, what matters is their relative performance compared with a basket of industry peers over the same time period. On this basis the median firm is worth 30% less today than it would have been had the scandals not happened. For the eight the total forfeited value is a chunky(粗重的；厚实的；结实的) $300bn.

forfeit

n(权利,名誉,生命等的)丧失；没收物；罚物游戏

v.(因被罚而)丧失(所有权)；(因犯罪等而)失去(职位,生命等)

 

股价中位数最多下降了33%，但滑落的速度不一，跌至低点所经历的时间从两周至两年不等。在大部分情况下，这些公司最后都能收复绝对损失。然而，重要的是在同一时期它们相对于同业公司的表现。以此来衡量，中位数公司的市值相比假设未发生丑闻的情况下要低30%。八家公司损失的总价值高达3000亿美元

 

Fines and legal costs explain only a small part of this. A big scandal distracts management, leads to other kinds of painful regulatory scrutiny(审查) and, if a firm has a stretched balance-sheet, forces it to shrink. BP has spent years trimming its budgets while its longtime rival, Shell, stole a march(三月，急行军) on it by buying BG, a gas firm. Wells Fargo faces a cap on its size imposed by the Federal Reserve. Equifax may become more heavily regulated. Uber has lost market share to a reinvigorated(再活化 使恢复生气) domestic competitor, Lyft.

罚款和法律支出只造成了损失的一小部分。大型丑闻会分散管理层的注意力，招致其他方面的严厉监管审査。如果涉事公司的资产负债表情况不妙，丑闻还会迫使它收缩资产规模。英国石油公司多年来一直在削减预算，而其老对手壳牌趁机抢先收购了英国天然气集团。富国银行面临美联储施加的资产规模限制。Equifax则可能受到更严格的监管。优步的市场份额有一部分已被再获融资的国内竞争对手(domestic competitor,比如滴滴)夺取。

Shell 壳牌

1907年由荷兰皇家石油公司（1890年成立）和英国壳牌运输和贸易公司（1897年成立）联合而成，分别占股60%和40%。壳牌公司总收入仅次于美国通用汽车公司和埃克森公司而居世界第三位。主要业务范围为石油和天然气的勘探开发、石油炼制、石油化工以及油品和化学品的贮运、销售。1983年石油和天然气产量占资本主义国家总产量的8%,生产石油化工产品，包括烯烃、芳烃、溶剂、洗涤剂、杀虫剂、塑料、树脂、合成橡胶等共3000余种，此外还生产和经营煤炭、金属和少量核能。

 

Two firms out of the eight come out relatively well.For Petrobras, the explanation is that its share price had already sunk before the car-wash affair began in earnest, reflecting cost overruns that were an augury(预兆) of the epic(史诗、壮举) mismanagement that the scandal revealed. Volkswagen is the only standout. It got hit by a huge $30bn bill for fines, product recalls and legal costs for“dieselgate”, but reacted to its crisis by putting in place an efficiency drive and a big bet on new car models. Even so, it and the other six listed firms in the sample are valued on low multiples of profits compared with their peers, suggesting that investors remain nervous.

八家公司中有两家的情况相对较好。巴西石油在洗车事件被炒得沸沸扬扬之前，已经因为成本超支的问题（预示了后来丑闻揭露出的严重管理不善）而导致股价下跌。大众汽车在这些公司中一枝独秀。这家公司因“柴油门”上缴的罚金加上产品召回及法律费用，损失高达300亿美元，但通过实施效率驱动方案，并大力研发新车型，顺利渡过了危机。即便如此，大众与其他六家上市公司的利润乘数(PE之类的指标)也还是低于同行水平，表明投资者仍放不下心。

 

Messing up, then fessing up

知耻近乎勇

Messing up

na.陷入困境；弄糟(计划等)；粗暴处理

The aftermath(创伤) of a scandal is unpredictable. In Facebook’s case the absence of established laws and regulations covering social media make it even harder than normal to predict how harsh the backlash will be. Its biggest advantage is its strong balance-sheet, which has $42bn of net cash. Its weakness is a management team that seems keen to downplay the severity of what has just happened. Recent experience suggests that is a mistake.

一桩丑闻的后果是不可预测的。对于此次Facebook泄密事件，由于有关社交媒体的法律法规并不完备，要预测后果的严重性比一般情况还要更难。Facebook的最大优势是它那强大的资产负债表，其中净现金达420亿美元(由于扎克伯格的影响力，代理问题是否会小点？)。它的弱点是管理团队似乎对事件的严重性一昧轻描淡写。最近的经验表明这是错误之举。

来自为知笔记(Wiz)