td回撤之绝对回撤
td回撤中有提到绝对回撤,指的是在原有的td回撤或斐波那契回撤中添加上时间的因素,eg.38.2%在下降趋势中用了n天,画一条n天的弧,直至股价接触到这条弧,即当股票“时空”两因素满足的情况下,股票在这个点回调38.2%,如下图描述
根据http://wealthv.com/learn/chartfilter/td_arcs.htm的描述,弧与预测的阻力线与支撑线之间存在先后关系
1)股价先达到阻力线或支撑线,后到弧,表明此时市场动能或趋势强劲,将更可能突破到更高水平的阻力线/支撑线
2)同时到达,表明市场动能耗竭,不大可能突破后期阻力线或支撑线。
原文描述:
If the price retraces 38 percentage points of the previous move in less than 38% of the period that generated the last move, the price has a greater chance of retracing further to the 62% level.
The key to TD Arcs is the speed with which the first retracement level is reached and broken (or not) by the price. If the 38% level is reached and broken before the 38% Arc, there's a strong tendency for the momentum to carry the price up through the next retracement level at 62%. As the example above demonstrates, however, if this doesn't occur quickly enough (before the price reaches the 38% Arc) the momentum tends to lag, the retracement becomes exhausted, and the market once again follows the overall long-term trend.