To celebrate the New Year, I've put together some thoughts and prognostications for the next 12 months. Things actually look pretty cheery all around, with just a few dark clouds that could spoil our technology fun.
1. Microsoft will enjoy a profitable 2011. It won't be due to any recent genius strategy or new products by the company, but instead thanks to Windows 7 and Office upgraders. Most big companies just aren't ready to move to the cloud yet, and the non-Microsoft solutions seem too traumatic for many of their customers to contemplate. Google Docs will make some inroads against Office, but the new Office 365 will be appealing enough to prevent mass defections -- at least in the near term -- as people figure they might as well give Microsoft's cloud solution a spin.
2. The me-too strategy will work better than expected for Microsoft. They will continue to open new retail stores, and perhaps even an app store for PC products. Certainly they are blatantly copying Apple with the concept and execution, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Compare the experience of buying an Apple computer to that of buying a Windows PC at a big-box retail store like Best Buy. When the salescritter at a retail store wants to charge $30 extra for a "PC Tuneup" package that removes the crapware installed by the computer's own maker, you know that Windows is in trouble. With their own stores, Microsoft has the ability to instead provide an Apple-like experience and showcase the best of Windows.
3. "Windows 8" will be revealed, but it won't look that attractive without the kimono. Microsoft will doggedly try to stick to its one-OS-core-fits-all design just one last time as it upgrades Windows 7, but they'll add various trimmings in the hopes it might fit onto platforms like tablets. At the same time, the company will be working on an upsized version of Windows Phone 7, running on ARM processors, to be their true answer for tablets like the iPad. They didn't license the rights to ARM architecture for nothing.
4. Tablets will hurt netbooks a lot more than notebooks. People who want a "real" computer with a keyboard will still opt for a full-sized notebook, running Windows 7. The netbook market will suffer at the hands of the tablet; an on-screen keyboard isn't that much worse than a cramped chiclet one, and besides the browse-to-type ratio is high on either device. This isn't a bad outcome for Microsoft, which couldn't sell real Windows 7 on low-end netbooks anyway and would prefer to deliver an ARM-based Windows for tablets that can be priced independently of Windows 7. They just need to deliver that solution ASAP.
5. IE6 will finally die, but IE9 may not be a great success. As XP declines in preparation for its final burial in 2014, usage of Internet Explorer 6 will drop to levels that finally justify major Internet sites treating it as a pariah. Although IE9 is a significantly good browser and will be released in 2011, it will be the first release of Internet Explorer that doesn't coincide with a new version of Windows. IE8's market share has been helped by the adoption of Windows 7, but IE9 won't get that automatic boost. To compensate, Microsoft will try an aggressive upgrade push but many users will hold back. Windows Mobile 7 will have its browser upgraded from the IE7-ish variant it currently runs to IE9, finally bringing that platform into feature parity with the Webkit-based browsers used by all the other major players.
6. Solid-state drives (SSDs) become standard on nearly all notebooks and tablets. With so much user data being stored in the cloud, there's not as much of a need for large drives. This transition will be a bit of a finesse for PC makers, since they generally like to upsell larger drives at outrageous prices. Expect to see notebook makers de-emphasize storage size and instead tout the better battery life you'll get by using SSDs. And of course, you can still get a really large SSD, it will just cost you an arm and a leg -- especially if it's the manufacturer's upgrade price.
7. Hand-wringing will far outpace action on Net Neutrality. Mobile carriers in particular will step far beyond the role of a bit pipe, justifying traffic discrimination and bandwidth limits by saying their networks are unable to handle the growing smartphone data deluge. Some content providers will announce deals to play ball with carriers and slip them a bribe; others will loudly fight the seeming inequity of these deals. The government will "study" this intently during 2011 but let most of the deals stand.
8. Mobile development moves towards the browser. Android, Apple, RIM, and Windows Phone 7 all have different native development environments, which means it's expensive to develop an app that serves them all. But they all support a browser, and except for Windows Phone it's a Webkit-based browser. Browser-based apps can be much more portable, and much less costly to develop since they require less platform-specific knowledge.
9. Android will continue to gain on Apple. Thanks to a wide spectrum of inexpensive new handsets and tablets, Android will offer strong competition to iPhone and iPad. Verizon's long-rumored iPhone will provide a boost to iPhone sales if it happens, but it will be short-lived since any true Apple fan willing to move already has. The Android-Apple dynamic duo will deplete BlackBerry share, scare HP into giving up a serious WebOS relaunch, and ensure that Windows Phone 7 has a hard time growing. Microsoft won't give up in 2011, though; they'll keep on plugging like they have with Zune and not pull the plug quickly like they did with Kin.
10. The moribund Google Checkout product will resurrect itself as a mobile app. Google's new Nexus S phone is one of the first to include a Near-Field Communication (NFC) technology that allows the phone to be used as a "digital wallet" to make payments. By the end of the year just about every smartphone will have NFC, and Google will be positioning itself as the conduit for making those payments. NFC-based payments could experience incredible growth rates, especially if the economy continues to improve this year. Oh, and be extra careful not to lose your phone in 2011.
11. Augmented reality will target businesses. The first practical augmented reality apps such as Word Lens do awesome things like translate signs in-place and in real time, but they have been oriented towards consumers. In 2011, we'll see some business-to-business applications, maybe in the form of paper presentations that spring to life when you shoot them with your cell phone's camera. Perhaps it's a bit of a gimmick, but the novelty factor will ensure that you get people's attention.
12. Your company will start to use IPv6, and it may be painful. Despite a lot of IPv6 groundwork being laid by the industry over the past ten years, IPv6 is still a tough sell for many organizations. But it's no false alarm that the world is running out of IPv4 addresses, so a serious transition must start to happen this year. This will open up multiple worm cans of security, performance, application, and network management issues. Network administrators will be earning their pay in 2011 for sure.
13. A really major newspaper will stop publishing on paper, and go digital-only. Perhaps this is too apocalyptic, but the next 12 months will tell. The newspaper industry has been shrinking faster than Biggest Loser contestants. Everyone sees it coming, but nobody wants to face the problem. This year, a big newspaper in the class of Washington Post or New York Times will decide to cut their losses and give up on paper. Perhaps they'll keep a Sunday edition around longer, who knows.
