What I Learned In 2023 - Alexandr Wang

一篇共鸣的博文：https://alexw.substack.com/p/what-i-learned-in-2023

小小年纪，已悟到这个层次，实至名归。

 

 

每年年底，我都会写下过去一年的主要经验教训并发送给At the end of every year, I write up the major lessons of the past year and send it to the Scale AIScale AI团队。今年，鉴于人工智能已经成为一个全球性话题，我想广泛地分享它。 team. This year, given the degree to which AI has become a global topic, I wanted to share it broadly.

  1. The conceit of an expert is a trap. Strive for a beginner’s mind and the energy of a novice.

Experience can often be a curse—the past is only mildly predictive of the future, and every scenario requires new techniques and insight. In novel situations, the novice tends to be at an advantage—their vitality and beginner’s mind lend themselves to faster adaptation.

  1. Winning requires an incredible level of discomfort. It’s not for the faint of heart.

Every athlete knows this. Winning comfortably is an oxymoron. Build pain tolerance if you want to win.

  1. Focus is the only strategy in a power law regime.

Power laws dictate that there’s always one outlier that will trump everything else in importance. If that’s true about what you’re working on, then 80% of the battle is finding the right thing to focus on.

  1. Advice tends to be 90% wrong and 10% right.

Most advice is horribly wrong. But there are always nuggets of truth which can be extremely helpful. The key to advice is to find the nuggets.

  1. Be prolific. No great person was lazy.

Every great human throughout history was incredibly prolific. They were constantly producing, practicing, and perfecting. You will be no different—get building.

  1. Startups innovate by idea recombination and evolutionary pressure. They win by being fast. Big companies must innovate through a clear and executable mission. They win by being right.

In the AI startup big bang of 2023, virtually every AI idea is being tried. This Darwinian process will result in a few big winners. Big companies do not have the luxury of nimbleness. The big company winners of 2023 are executing against plans laid years ago (long before the AI hype cycle!)—they are the ones who most successfully predicted the future.

  1. Momentum trumps manpower.

The story of AI in 2023—small teams with momentum punched far above their weight. Momentum is a strong force—harness it and you’ll be unstoppable.

  1. Paranoia is an adaptive trait.

Your therapist might tell you it’s unhealthy to be anxious. But, as per Andy Grove, only the paranoid survive.

  1. When the future is being built, small decisions have monumental impact.

In 2030, we will look back at many of the major touchstones of how AI has affected humanity and realize that they were each determined by decisions that seemed small and insignificant in 2023. The future will amplify every decision we make today—we must act wisely.

  1. Fight for exceptional people. Every exceptional person is the product of unique circumstance, and they deserve to be fought for.

Exceptional people working together is the closest thing we have to a philosopher’s stone. Great teams are akin to true alchemy—creating something from nothing. Fight for them. It’s always worth it.

  1. The future is defined more by opportunism than by planfulness.

Opportunism has driven every major AI change. Every week there is another move made by a startup, government, or big company to gain ground in the arena. Every move—regulation, de-regulation, open-sourcing, closed-sourcing, etc.—is a tactic in the larger AI chess game.

  1. Everything interesting is only apparent in the finest of details. You have to be deep in the weeds to recognize the extraordinary.

The world will train you to not study things too deeply; it seemingly rewards breadth over depth. The exact opposite is true—extraordinary discoveries come from extreme depth and a curious, borderline obsessive, analysis of fine details.

  1. Focus on compounding activities. Avoid perishable pursuits.

Humans often compete over perishable rewards (status, fame, etc.) versus compounding ones (technology, teams, etc.). If you avoid this mistake, you will be unstoppable in 5+ years.

  1. Find your superpowers and never let go of them—they will carry you your whole life.

We often fall into the trap of shoring up our weaknesses rather than doubling down on our strengths. If your story for how you win does not involve your superpowers, then it is likely wrong. We win through strength, not lack of weakness.

  1. Mirage opportunities always feel just out of reach. Real opportunities slap you in the face.

Pure theory has led many brilliant minds astray in search of opportunity. In practice, identifying a real opportunity will feel like grabbing a tiger by its tail. It will pull you violently and quickly.

  1. The search for new miracles is an insatiable human desire.

Despite all of the potential concern surrounding the advancement of AI and other breakthrough technologies, progress rages ahead. Humanity will always pursue miracles, and we are at the start of a golden age.

 

 

  • 专家的自负是一个陷阱。追求初学者的心态和新手的精力。
    • 经验往往是一种诅咒——过去只能轻微地预测未来，每种情况都需要新的技巧和洞察力。在新颖的情况下，新手往往处于优势地位——他们的活力和初学者的心态有助于更快地适应。
  • 获胜需要极大的不适。这不是胆小鬼的事情。
    • 每个运动员都知道这一点。舒适地获胜是一个矛盾的说法。如果你想赢，就要建立疼痛耐受力。
  • 在幂律体制中，专注是唯一的策略。
    • 幂律规定，总会有一个离群值在重要性上超过其他所有东西。如果你正在处理的事情是这样的，那么80%的战斗就是找到正确的焦点。
  • 建议往往是90%错误和10%正确。
    • 大多数建议都是非常错误的。但总会有一些真理的金子，它们可以极其有用。建议的关键是找到这些金子。
  • 要多产。没有伟大的人是懒惰的。
    • 历史上的每个伟大人物都是非常多产的。他们不断地创作、练习和完善。你也不例外——开始建设吧。
  • 创业公司通过思想重组和进化压力进行创新。他们通过快速获胜。大公司必须通过明确的可执行任务进行创新。他们通过正确获胜。
    • 在2023年的AI创业公司大爆炸中，几乎每个AI想法都在尝试。这种达尔文式的过程将导致一些大赢家。大公司没有灵活性的奢侈品。2023年的大公司赢家正在执行多年前制定的计划（远在AI炒作周期之前！）——他们是最成功预测未来的人。
  • 动量胜过人力。
    • AI的故事在2023年——小团队的动量远远超过了他们的体重。动量是一种强大的力量——利用它，你将无法阻挡。
  • 偏执症是一种适应性特征。
    • 正如英特尔前CEO安迪·格鲁夫曾经说过的那样，“只有偏执狂才能生存
  • 当未来正在建设时，小决策具有重大影响。
    • 在2030年，我们将回顾AI如何影响人类的许多重要里程碑，并意识到它们都是由2023年看似微不足道的决策决定的。未来将放大我们今天做出的每个决策-我们必须明智地行动。
  • 为卓越的人而战。每个卓越的人都是独特环境的产物，他们值得为之而战。
    • 卓越的人共同工作就像真正的炼金术-从无到有创造出一些东西。为他们而战。这总是值得的。
  • 未来更多地由机会主义而不是计划性定义。
    • 机会主义推动了每一次重大的AI变革。每周都有一家初创公司、政府或大公司采取行动来在竞技场上获得优势。每一步-监管、去监管、开源、闭源等-都是更大的AI棋局中的策略。
  • 所有有趣的事情只有在最细微的细节中才能显现出来。你必须深入其中才能认识到非凡之处。
    • 世界会让你不要过于深入研究事物；它似乎更注重广度而不是深度。恰恰相反-非凡的发现来自于极度深入和对细节的好奇、近乎痴迷的分析。
  • 专注于复合活动。避免易逝的追求。
    • 人类经常在易逝的奖励（地位、名声等）与复合奖励（技术、团队等）之间竞争。如果你避免了这个错误，你将在5年内无法阻挡。
  • 找到你的超能力，永远不要放手-它们将伴随你的一生。
    • 我们经常陷入这样的陷阱：弥补我们的弱点而不是加倍利用我们的优势。如果你赢得的故事不涉及你的超能力，那么它很可能是错误的。我们通过力量而不是缺乏弱点获胜。

  • 幻觉机会总是感觉就在眼前。真正的机会会狠狠地打在你的脸上。

    • 纯理论已经让许多杰出的人才在寻找机会时误入歧途。在实践中，识别真正的机会会感觉像抓老虎的尾巴。它会猛烈而迅速地拉你。

  • 寻找新奇迹是人类一种无法满足的渴望。

    • 尽管AI和其他突破性技术的进步可能引起潜在的担忧，但进步仍在不断推进。人类将永远追求奇迹，我们正处于一个黄金时代的开端。

 

posted @ 2024-01-05 08:14  郝壹贰叁  阅读(43)  评论(0)  编辑  收藏  举报