2020年10月26日Britain suggests it may overturn parts of the EU withdrawal agreement
Britain suggests it may overturn parts of the EU withdrawal agreement
If this is a negotiating tactic, it is unlikely to work
IT HAS LONG been clear that trade negotiations between Britain and the European Union are making no progress. On the main sticking points, access to British fisheries and the EU’s wish to constrain state subsidies to ensure fair competition, neither side seems ready to compromise. But the British government has now dropped a new bombshell by apparently planning to publish a new bill on September 9th that will, if no trade deal is agreed on by the end of the year, override parts of the withdrawal agreement, a treaty signed earlier in 2020, relating to trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland was the biggest problem in the first lot of Brexit negotiations, because both sides wanted to avoid border controls with the Irish Republic that might upset the Good Friday peace agreement of 1998. After Boris Johnson took over from Theresa May as prime minister last year, his solution was to keep Northern Ireland alone in line with the EU’s customs code and single-market rules. The withdrawal agreement makes clear that this means customs checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Yet Mr Johnson has repeatedly denied that there will be a border in the Irish Sea. His new bill—reported in the Financial Times and described as a tidying-up exercise by officials—seeks to overturn the withdrawal agreement’s requirement for export declarations on goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain, and also to scrap a provision that Britain must provide details of state subsidies for firms operating in the province.
Why is Mr Johnson doing this now? The charitable explanation is that he still wants a trade deal, and is merely trying to ratchet up the pressure on EU leaders to make enough concessions to get one. His talk of October 15th as a deadline for agreeing to a deal, after which he would walk away, and his insistence that no deal would be good for Britain are all part of the same tactical game. His unsubtle message is that, unlike Mrs May, he will not blink at the last minute, since for him no trade deal (or, as his government likes to call it, trading on Australian terms) is an acceptable outcome.
Yet if this is tactical manoeuvring, it seems unlikely to work. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, has already said that, unless existing agreements are respected in full, there can be no future deal between the EU and Britain. As the smaller partner facing a much bigger market, Britain has more to lose from the failure to reach a trade deal, which would mean not just new non-tariff barriers but tariffs too. Experience suggests that the EU, the world’s biggest market, does not respond well to threats from those it is negotiating with.
Moreover, by casting doubt on the implementation of an existing treaty, Britain is inviting not just the EU but the world to see it as an unreliable partner. Its chances of securing a trade deal with America would surely disappear: congressional leaders have already said that, if Brexit upsets the Good Friday agreement, they would veto any free-trade agreement. Other countries can be expected to be similarly dismayed. As Brexit itself has shown, the right way to change a treaty is to negotiate with its signatories, not to pass unilateral domestic legislation in breach of it. The government’s bombshell is making a deal at the end of the year ever more unlikely.
英国表示它可能推翻部分脱欧协议
（v.表明；建议；暗示；启发；这里指的是：表明，表示）
（the EU withdrawal agreement，脱欧协议，withdrawal：撤退；提款；退出）
如果这是一种谈判策略，就不太可能奏效。（If this is a negotiating tactic, it is unlikely to work）
很明显（it has long been clear that:早就明确了），英国和欧盟之间的贸易谈判没有任何进展。在主要症结上（on the main sticking points）,英国渔业准入（access to British fisheries）和欧盟希望限制国家补贴（constrain state subsidies)以确保公平竞争。双方好像都不准备妥协（neither side seems ready to compromise）。
但是英国政府已经放弃了一个新的炸弹（dropped a new bombshell）,显然打算将于9月9日发布一项新的法案（bill），如果到年底没有达成贸易协议，那么将重写（override)部分退欧协议，于2020年初签订的关于大不列颠和北爱尔兰之间贸易的协议。
在英国脱欧谈判的第一轮中（in the first lot of Brexit negotiations，lot：这个词不仅表示量词，还可以指“轮，批次”；Brexit:英国脱欧的简称），北爱尔兰事最大的问题，因为双方都想避免与爱尔兰共和国的边境管制。这可能会破环1998年的耶稣受难日和平协议。
去年，鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)接替（took over from）特里萨·梅(Theresa May)担任英国首相，他的解决方案是让北爱尔兰独自遵守欧盟的海关法规（customs code）和单一市场规则(single-market rules)。（keep in line with :保持一致，这里的keep Northern Lreland alone in line with,让北爱尔兰独自保持和...一致 ----> 让北爱尔兰独自遵守...）。退出协议明确表示，这意味着北爱尔兰和英国之间要进行海关检查。然而，Mr Johnson曾反复否认（has repeatedly denied that）爱尔兰海会有边境。他的新法案——发布于金融时报，被官方描述为整理工作（tidying-up exercise）——试图撤回协议对北爱尔兰到英国的货物进行出口申报的要求（export declarations on），此外，并且废除了英国必须为在该省经营的公司提供国家补贴的细节的规定。（scrap a provision：废除一项条款）。
为什么Mr Johnson 要这么做呢？一个比较慈善的解释（The chatitable explanation ）是他仍然想要达成一项协议，仅仅只是试图（is merely trying to）施加更多的压力(ratchet up the pressure)在欧盟领导人上以获得足够的让步(concessions)来达成一项协议。他说10月15日的讲话是达成协议的最后期限，此后他将辞职（after which he would walk away）,他坚持没有协议对英国有利，这些都是统一场战术游戏的一部分。
然而，如果这是一种战略策略，似乎不太可能会奏效。（Yet if this is tactical manoeuvring, it seems unlikely to work）。冯德莱恩，欧盟委员会主席，已经说过了除非现有协议得到充分尊重（unless existing agreements are respected in full）,欧盟和英国之间没有任何未来的协议（there can be no future deal between the EU and Britain）。作为一个面对更大市场的小伙伴，如果不能达成贸易协议，英国将损失更大，这不仅意味着新的非关税壁垒，而且也意味着关税。（which would mean not just new-tariff barriers but tariffs too）。经验表明，作为世界上最大的市场，欧盟并不能很好的应对莱斯谈判对手的威胁。（does not response well to threats from those it is neogotiating with）.
此外，通过对现有条约执行情况的质疑，英国不仅是在邀请欧盟，也是在邀请全全世界把她视作一个不可靠的伙伴。（Moreover, by casting doubt on the implementation of an existing treaty, Britain is inviting not just the EU but the world to see it as an unreliable partner， cast doubt on :引起对...的质疑；对...产生怀疑）它和美国
达成贸易协议的机会肯定会消失：国会领导人已经表示（congressional leaders），如果脱欧破坏了《耶稣受难日协议》（Good Friday agreement）,他们将否决任何自由贸易的协定。可以预计的是其他国家也会感到沮丧，正如英国脱欧本身所表明的那样，改变条约的正确方式是与签署国谈判（is to gegotiate with its signatories），而不是单方面通过违反条约的国内立法（not to pass unilateral单方面 domestic本国内 legislation立法 in breach of（违反...:in breach of...）。政府的重磅炸弹使得年底达成协议的可能性更小。
