《the psychology of money》金钱心理学-英文原版书籍-读书笔记

———————————————————— introduction ———————————————————— 2024.01.20

尽管我们周围的世界充满了明显的事物和现象，但人们往往忽视它们

“soft skills”
financial success is not a hard science. It is a soft skill, where how you behave is more important than what you know
soft skills are more important than the technical side of money

“health and money”

“money industry investing, personal finance, business planning”

taught about money in ways that are too much like physics (with rules and laws) and not enough like psychology (with emotions and nuance)

no one could accurately explain what happened to financial crisis

I realized that you could understand it better through the lenses of psychology and history, not finance

“interest rates”

you don’t need to study interest rates; you need to study the history of greed, insecurity, and optimism
To get why investors sell out at the bottom of a bear market you don’t need to study the math of expected future returns
you need to think about the agony of looking at your family and wondering if your investments are imperiling their future.

History never repeats itself; man always does

each chapter describing what I consider to be the most important and often counterintuitive features of the psychology of money

总结：
作者举了三个人的例子来说明财务的积累与受教育程度和聪明/专家无关，与钱的行为更重要的是软技能，更好的研究尺度是“历史和心理”，而不是类似于物理学科，或者与经济金融话题相关的硬知识（专业术语、计算）

———————————————————— no one’s crazy ———————————————————— 2024.01.20

Your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.00000001% of what’s happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works.

what you’ve experienced is more compelling than what you learn second hand.

The challenge for us is that no amount of studying or open-mindedness can genuinely recreate the power of fear and uncertainty.

We all think we know how the world works. But we’ve all only experienced a tiny sliver of it.

In 2006 economists Ulrike Malmendier and Stefan Nagel from the National Bureau of Economic Research dug through 50 years of the Survey of Consumer Finances—a detailed look at what Americans do with their money

The economists wrote: “Our findings suggest that individual investors’ willingness to bear risk depends on personal history.”

Take stocks.If you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10- fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That’s an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation

Or inflation. If you were born in 1960s America, inflation during your teens and 20s—your young, impressionable years when you’re developing a base of knowledge about how the economy works—sent prices up more than threefold. That’s a lot. You remember gas lines and getting paychecks that stretched noticeably less far than the ones before them. But if you were born in 1990, inflation has been so low for your whole life that it’s probably never crossed your mind.

Compare that to the U.S., where the stock market more than doubled from 1941 through the end of 1945, and the economy was the strongest it had been in almost two decades.

Mostly poor people buy lottery tickets.

The 401(k)—the backbone savings vehicle of American retirement—did not exist until 1978.

Yet here we are, with between 20 and 50 years of experience in the modern financial system, hoping to be perfectly acclimated

补充：
Ulrike Malmendier和Stefan Nagel的研究《Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?》探讨了个人宏观经济经历对其风险态度的长期影响。该研究利用1964年至2004年的消费者财务调查数据，发现经历过较低股票市场和债券回报的人表现出较低的金融风险承受意愿，他们参与股票和债券市场的可能性较小，并且倾向于在股票和债券中投资较小比例的流动资产。研究还显示，较近期的经济体验对财务行为的影响更强，但早期生活经验在几十年后仍具有重要影响。这项研究为理解个人所经历的宏观经济条件如何影响其财务决策和风险承担行为提供了洞察。

思考问题：
🤔：国家为什么不以销毁货币的方式来抑制通货膨胀？
https://www.zhihu.com/question/346862321
钱本身只是一张纸而已，它的价值来自于它所能够交换到的资产。
最终的目的都是让真实财富的生产（一般用GDP来度量）和流动性的增长保持某种意义上的同步关系（并非同比例）。

🤔：401(K)是什么？会给养老带来哪些问题？提前存入的养老金是否会遇到通缩的影响？

总结：
作者在这个章节中表达的主要观点是，个体是时代的产物，个体的经历影响金钱的决策，通货膨胀、利率对个人投资方式的重大影响；
养老金的产生，现代金融市场的成立，对于目前的人来说，在这方面的经验不足够