The.Big.Short字幕

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原字幕来源：aceusub 校调：eees.liao 后期：包大人

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根据真实事件改编
Based on a true story.

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不懂的事情，你自然会多加小心
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.

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惹祸上身的是你自以为懂的事 -马克吐温
It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

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（淹死的都是会水的）
Mark Twain

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弗兰克，老婆孩子还好吧？
Hi ya Frank, how are the wife and kids?

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你考虑过买国库券或事业公司股票吗？抽烟吗
you know, shouldn't y'all be considering
treasury bonds or utility stocks? Smoke?

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在70年代后期
in the late seventies

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银行业并不是赚大钱的行业
banking wasn't a job you went into
to make large sums of money.

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绝对废柴行业！
It was a fucking snooze!

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到处是穷鬼！
Filled with losers!

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都是来卖保险，做帐的
Like selling insurance, or.... accounting

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如果银行业废柴的话
And if banking was boring...

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证券部门就是植物人呆的地方
then the bond department at the bank
was straight up comatose.

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大伙都知道证券是怎么回事
We all know about bonds....

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把证券当礼物送给你的15岁小屁孩
You give em to your snot nosed kid
when he turns fifteen

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到他30了，能拿到一百来块钱
Maybe when he's thirty
he makes a hundred bucks.

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累不累啊？
Boring!

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千呼万唤，所罗门兄弟公司的刘易斯驾临
That is until Lewis Rainieri
came on the scene at Salomon Brothers

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这名不经传的人物，对你的影响…
You might not know who he is

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比起乔丹、iPod、视频网站加起来还要大！
But he changed your life more than Michael Jordan,
the I-Pod and Youtube put together!

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先生们，咱们一起发财吧！怎么样？
Hey Gentlemen, let's get some money in here.
Let's make some money! What do you say?!

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可能当时刘易斯还不知道
但其实他已经改变了历史
You see, Lewis didn't know it yet,
but he already changed banking forever

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就用最简单的这个点子
with one simple idea.

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房贷证券(MBS)
The mortgage backed security.

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或者私营房贷证券
or... Private Label MBS

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你们都背着普通的房贷
You got your average persons mortgage

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固定利率，30年还清，没意思！
定额小笔钱偿还，就这样了
fixed rate, thirty years, boring!
Same, small payoff. Right!

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但是…
But......

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如果你把上千个房贷打包起来
when you add thousands of them
all bundled together

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忽然回报率上升了，但风险还很小
suddenly, the yield goes up, but the risk is still small,
because....

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因为它们是房贷，哪个神经病不还房贷呢？
Well, they're mortgages,
and who the hell doesn't pay their mortgage?

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这种证券评级怎么样？
What exactly is the credit-rating on this bond?

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证券评级…是AAA级别！
This bond gentlemen...
Is AAA-Rating!

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这就是我们密西根州养老基金一直找的啊！
This is exactly what the Michigan State Pension fund
has been looking for!

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  • 我买两千万！- 别扫兴啊，放开点！
    I'll buy twenty million!
    -Oh come on, live a little!

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两千五百万！
Twenty five million!

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钱就像下雨一样来了！
The money came raining down!

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银行家破例从乡村具乐部跑到了脱衣舞夜总会
And for the first time,
the banker went from the country-club to the strip-club.

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很快，股票和存款都没人考虑了
Pretty soon, stocks and savings
were almost inconsequential.

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每年大伙都买卖5百亿，1千亿，2千亿的房贷证券
They were doing fifty, a hundred,
two hundred billion in mortgage bonds

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还有几十种其他证券
and dozens of other securities a year.

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1970年代末，Christie Brinkley模特演员，因泳装封面照出名
1970, Christie Brinkley

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1980年9月22日，里根总统对古巴裔美国人演讲
1980 Ronald Reagan

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1980年6月20日，《福禄双霸天》喜剧电影
1980 The Blues Brothers

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1984年1月24日，第一代苹果电脑
1984 First Mac

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1986年8月20日，吉姆•贝克“传承会”教会演讲，后因其性丑闻组织破裂
1986 Tammy Faye Messner and Jim Bakker

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1980年代，世贸大厦建筑群建成
1980 World Trade Center complex

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1982 巴斯奎特作品《Self Potrait As A Heel》, 1988年去世
1982 Jean-Michel Basquiat

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1986 电影《壮志凌云》
1986 Top Gun

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1981-1989 老布什担任总统
1981-1989 George H. W. Bush

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1980 毒品。80年代军方加入禁毒力量。
1980 Drugs

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1989年8月19日，柏林墙倒塌
1989 Fall of the Berlin Wall

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1990 说唱歌手LL Cool J歌曲《Mama Said Knock You Out》
1990 LL Cool J - Mama Said Knock You Out

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1998年 克林顿 莱温斯基绯闻
1998 Monica Lewinsky and Bill Clinton

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1998年8月15日 iMac G3, 第一台苹果一体机，精简型电脑的鼻祖。
1998 iMac G3

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2001 小布什总统上台
2001 George Walker Bush

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1995年4月19日 俄克拉何马城爆炸案
1995 Oklahoma City bombing

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1990年代 歌手Snoop Doggy Dogg和Tupac
1990 Snoop Doggy Dogg and Tupac

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1997 《南方公园》首播
1997 Eric Cartman in South Park

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1998 谷歌公司成立
1998 Google

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1994 辣妹合唱团
1994 Spice Girls

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2000 美国LGBT同志权利运动
2000 Rainbow flag, LGBT movement

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2002 科恩《AliG个人秀》上映，也是《波拉特》主演
2002 Da Ali G Show

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美国人都没注意到金融行业已经成为领头羊
And America barely noticed that it's number one industry
became boring old banking

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然后三十年后，08年的一天
And then... one day,
almost thirty years later, in 2008

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一切轰然倒塌
It all came crashing down!

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贝尔斯登公司陷入泥潭，美联储帮忙救急
Bear Stearns was in a death spiral
and the FED brokered it's sale.

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现代历史上最严重的经济危机
The worst financial crisis in modern times

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几十年以来最大的金融海啸
The largest financial disaster in decades

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很可能是整个时代最糟的情况了
And perhaps the end of the era

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5百万人丢了工作
5 million unemployed

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到最后，刘易斯的房贷证券
异变成了摧毁全球经济的怪物
In the end Lewis Rainier's mortgage backed security
mutated into a monstrosity that collapsed the whole world economy

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专家、领导人或者电视上的权威都没能预料到
And none of the experts, or leaders,
or talking heads had a clue it was coming.

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驱逐通知
Eviction Restoration Notice

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我估计你们也没弄明白发生了什么事情
and I'm guessing most of you
still don't really know what happened.

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是啊，大家也就是人云亦云一下…
Yeah, you got a sound bite you repeat
so you don't sound dumb, but come on....

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(美国财政部长）我们的金融机构是强有力的！
(Henry Paulson) Our financial institutions are strong!

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不过确实有人预料到这事儿发生
But there were some who saw it coming.

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整个世界都在虚假狂欢
少数的局外人和怪才却独具慧眼
While the whole world was having a big old party,
few outsiders and weirdos saw what no-one else could.

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不是我，我才不怪呢，等会再跟你说我的酷事儿
Not me, I'm not a weirdo, I'm pretty fucking cool,
but... we'll meet again later!

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这些人发现了经济中心的弥天大谎
These outsiders saw the giant lie
at the heart of the economy

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方法不难，只是随大流的人永远不会去做：
and they saw it by doing something
the rest of the suckers never thought to do.

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亲自去了解
They looked

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《大卖空》
翻译:aceusub
The Big Short. eng:AnanGram. chs: aceusub

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邮箱: aceusub@126.com
by aceusub aceusub@126.com

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贯穿整个20世纪30年代…
Through the nineteen thirties....

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房产市场…全国性的崩溃
The housing market collapsed...
nationwide.

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大概80%都完了
By roughly 80 percent.

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其中有一半的房贷都违约了
And half of all .. eh ... mortgage debt
was in default.

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那时候有…
There were.. Very......

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明确的鉴别指标，相当好认
Specific identifiers. Extremely recognizable.

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麦克•贝利，赛恩对冲基金经理
Michael Burry

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稍等，比方说
wait... for instance

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狂热的标志之一
W-w-w-w one of the hallmarks of mania.

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是快速上升的复杂性和欺诈性的利率
is that rapid rise and complexity,
and the rates... they frauded

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居然在上升！
Did you know....
They're going up!

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我这人习惯自己呆着
I've always been.. more comfortable.. when alone.

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可能是我玻璃假眼的原因吧
I believe... maybe... it's because of...
my glass eye.

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小时候得过病，眼睛坏了一边
i lost the eye...
in a childhood illness.

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我就不再合群了
separates me from people.

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…利率居然在上升！
Did you know... They're going up!

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…欺诈性的利率达到了30年代最高点
Highest fraud rates since the nineteen thirties.

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我还真不了解
-No, I didn't know that.

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我…是说1933年
I mean.. ghe ghe ghe...
nine ... nineteen thirty three

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大萧条的第四年
the fourth year of the great depression

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儿子你表现的一直很好，教练都表扬你了
-You were playing so great son,
even heard the coach say it!

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我想回家
Can we just go home?

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所有社交活动，都会让我和对方不舒服
All social interf.. actions
are awkward for me and for the.... person

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哪怕我想夸夸别人，也词不达意
Even when i try to compliment...
it somehow... it comes out wrong....

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你头型不错啊，你自己理的吗？
You have a very nice haircut,
you do it yourself?

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哦…你说啥？
-huh, What?

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不是我…嗯…
-No, i eh....

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抱歉，别往心里去
I'm sorry... please...

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我老是这样，我老婆让我多和别人交流
I'm going on and on.
My wife told me i need to share more.

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听起来挺好的建议
-That seems healthy.

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那我就在这儿干了？我觉得我能帮你筹款
So .. I get the job?
I really think i could help you fund.

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好啊，那太好了
Yeah....
Yeah... sure!

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  • 你叫？… - 大卫，太棒了
  • You're -David!...
    David.... Great!

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那我去找个位子，有什么我能上手帮到你的工作吗？
I guess I'll go find a desk.
Is there anything you want me to work on for start?

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…有
ehh..... Yeah.

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你回头找我也行！
-You could let me know later!

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赛恩资本
Scion Capital

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你…你…觉得
D... d... d... did ya... did you

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你觉得当时奇怪吗…
Think it was strange when...

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那时…
Ehm...

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2001年互联网泡沫破裂的时候…
the tech-bubble burst in 2001

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硅谷的房价…
And the housing market in San- Jose.

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世界科技中心的房价…
Tech-Capital of the world....

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却逆势上涨…
Went up.....

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有点…不，不奇怪！
it's strange...
-No, no!

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这是房产…房产一直很稳定，风险也低
it's housing...
housing is always stable... low-risk.

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我说的就是这点很奇怪
That's the idea ... yeah.

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我要你帮我找到…
I want you to get me....

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卖的最火的20个房贷证券
The ... eh....Top-20 selling mortgage bonds

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你想要知道最火的20家是哪些？
-So, you want to know
what the top-20 selling mortgage bonds are?

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不不不，我要知道每一家的所有房贷数据
No, no, no, i want to know
what mortgages are in each one

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2005年3月
2005 Mar

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稍等稍等…这些房贷不是…
-Wha.. wait...
-Aren't those mortgages made up of

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这些房贷证券不是成千上万个房贷组成的吗？
-Wait... aren't those bonds made up of
thousands and thousands of mortgages?

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是啊
Yeah...

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我这就去办，贝利博士
Right away, Dr. Burry.

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证券交易委员会房贷证券商
SEC mortgage brokerage firm

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盈利38% 赛恩净值
SCION VALUE

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证券交易委员会 房贷证券商违规
SEC mortgage brokerage firm violations

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没有找到任何匹配网页
did not match any documents

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bgm 《Blood and Thunder》by Mastodon
BGM ¡°Blood and Thunder¡± by Mastodon

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我人不错，整天乐呵呵的
a nice guy... all day long.

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你去问别人，大伙都愿意和我相处
hmm.. ask anyone...hmm,
I'm a pleasure to work with.

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可是我儿子只要办砸了事儿
But the second my son screws up

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我…
and...

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我就对他吼，就像我爸对我一样…
yelling at him...
just like my dad did to me.

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感觉自己控制不住自己的嘴…
You hear the words that are coming out of my mouth.

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抱歉我迟到了，没出租车！
Sorry I'm late, no cabs!

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啊
Aaaahh

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你们评评理
So get this....

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昨天我和私人银行的一个人聊
I met with this retail banker yesterday..

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00:10:01,570 --> 00:10:03,820
本来是让他投资我的基金
I'm supposed to be getting him to invest in a fund,

159
00:10:04,260 --> 00:10:07,870
结果我开始和他较真有关透支的问题
instead, i start drilling him about overdraft analysis

160
00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,700
他的银行让客户写了十几个支票
and how his bank will let customers
write ten... twelve cheques

161
00:10:11,980 --> 00:10:12,950
还不告诉客户已经透支了
Before telling them they're overdrawing.

162
00:10:13,180 --> 00:10:14,160
这个小人…
and this creep....

163
00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,630
用这种卑鄙的方式赚了十亿多
is making billions off
screwing over people this way.

164
00:10:16,750 --> 00:10:19,710
我越来越压不住火，我问他
And I'm getting madder and madder,
and i ask him.

165
00:10:19,830 --> 00:10:21,720
瞪着他，质问他
I look him in the face and i say:

166
00:10:22,140 --> 00:10:27,180
你晚上睡得着觉吗？不怕鬼叫门吗
How can you sleep at night, knowing...
that you're ripping off working people.

167
00:10:27,770 --> 00:10:29,490
你猜怎么着…他扭头走了！
And know what he did....
He left!

168
00:10:29,730 --> 00:10:32,130
也不理我，直接走人
He just walks out of the lunch,
doesn't say a word.

169
00:10:32,530 --> 00:10:35,120
这他妈是什么玩意？好像我惹着他了
What the fuck is that?
Who's fucked up in that scenario?

170
00:10:35,420 --> 00:10:37,110
错在我？还是这个傻逼？
Am i?
Or is this douche-bag?

171
00:10:37,230 --> 00:10:40,300
把我晾在那儿，谁更操蛋？
who leaves me hanging...
Is he the fucked up one?

172
00:10:40,420 --> 00:10:42,520

  • 还给我脸色看！- 咱们以前说过几次了
    Trying to make me feel bad about myself!
    -We have talk about this numerous times

173
00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:46,020

  • 让他去死吧 - 你不能迟到了就抢别人的话
    Fuck him!
    -You can't come in late and hijack the entire session!

174
00:10:46,270 --> 00:10:47,530
你说什么啊，我没抢啊
What do you mean, i didn't hijack the meeting.

175
00:10:47,670 --> 00:10:49,000

  • 我抢话了吗？- 抢了
    Did i hijack this session?
    -Yeah

176
00:10:49,100 --> 00:10:50,300
(这是团体心理治疗)
group therapy

177
00:10:50,500 --> 00:10:51,170
你干啥的？
What do you do?

178
00:10:51,420 --> 00:10:52,320
我做商品期货的
I'm in commodities.

179
00:10:52,710 --> 00:10:53,700
我等着看你的好戏！
Good luck with that!

180
00:10:54,540 --> 00:10:54,860
马克…
Marc...

181
00:10:55,330 --> 00:10:58,120
我知道你刚失去了亲人
I know you've suffered a terrible loss,

182
00:10:58,240 --> 00:10:59,410
你想要聊聊吗
Do you want to talk about that?

183
00:10:59,530 --> 00:11:00,500
这事儿我不会开口
I don't talk about that.

184
00:11:00,620 --> 00:11:00,990
稍等…
Hold on...

185
00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:05,240
稍等…靠，我得接电话了，抱歉！
Hold on..
Shit.. let's take this, sorry!

186
00:11:05,510 --> 00:11:06,000
对不起了！
Sorry!

187
00:11:07,450 --> 00:11:08,990
伯特，你怎么做我不管
I don't care Porter...

188
00:11:09,050 --> 00:11:09,590
（马克•鲍姆）
Mark Baum

189
00:11:09,610 --> 00:11:12,950
这家伙赚的钱是刮人骨头来的，能撑多久
This guy's whole business is build upon
ripping people off,how long can that last?

190
00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:15,250
大伙再见！
Bye everybody!

191
00:11:16,700 --> 00:11:17,320
85…
85...

192
00:11:18,260 --> 00:11:20,530
这个逾期30天，这个60天没交了
That's 30 days late, that's 60 days late.

193
00:11:20,730 --> 00:11:22,700
(期末余额；初始余额；损失)
EndSchedBal, OriginalBalCalc, ActiveLoss

194
00:11:22,890 --> 00:11:24,430
按时还贷
Pay on time.

195
00:11:28,110 --> 00:11:29,350
这些FICO信用评分…
These Fico-scores

196
00:11:33,750 --> 00:11:35,750
盈利38.0% 赛恩净值
38.0

197
00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:38,750
你们这下现原形了…
They're caught up with their pants....

198
00:11:38,980 --> 00:11:40,160
30天逾期
30 days late...

199
00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:41,790
贷款价值比…大概是5
Loan to Value.... maybe 5

200
00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:42,790
可能是9
maybe 9

201
00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:45,220
60天逾期，天哪
60 days late, jeez!

202
00:11:46,530 --> 00:11:47,530
闻所未闻
I've never heard of that.

203
00:11:47,530 --> 00:11:48,440
30天逾期
30 days late

204
00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:57,830
他一天都没动窝了
He hasn't move all day.

205
00:11:58,230 --> 00:11:59,790
他每隔几天都这样一次
He does this every few days.

206
00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,430
他雇了我以后就没再理过我
Hasn't spoken to me since he hired me.

207
00:12:05,730 --> 00:12:08,230
房贷公司本息已垫付
（这是放贷者有信心收回房贷时的做法）
Servicer Advanced

208
00:12:09,050 --> 00:12:10,350
麦克，你还好吗
Michael, how are you guy?!

209
00:12:10,470 --> 00:12:13,110
劳伦斯，我找到了有意思的东西
Lawrence, I've put out something really interesting...

210
00:12:13,430 --> 00:12:16,800
麦克你干的好，你每次找到有意思的东西
我们就能躺着赚钱了
Great Michael, whenever you find something
interesting, we all sit to make money.

211
00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:18,080
看上哪个股票了
What stock are you vowing?

212
00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,950
不不不…不是股票，我要做空房地产市场
No, no , no no.. I wanna,
i wanna short the housing market.

213
00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,280
是吗？房地产市场可是坚如磐石
Really?
But the housing market is rock-solid!

214
00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,870
格林斯潘说过，泡沫是局部现象，断供的很少
Greenspan just said:
"Bubbles are regional, defaults are rare!"

215
00:12:30,560 --> 00:12:32,220
告诉他们我一会就到
Tell em I'll be there in a minute

216
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:33,470
你再说一遍
Say again!

217
00:12:33,780 --> 00:12:36,250
听好了，格林斯潘说错了！
Look...
Greenspan's wrong!

218
00:12:36,490 --> 00:12:38,680
我知道你不是故意的
Look, i don't think you mean to do this,
but eh..

219
00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,750
可你有时候说话太瞧不起人
sometimes you sound very
dismissive and superior.

220
00:12:42,410 --> 00:12:45,440
事情本来就是这样，格林斯潘错了
你让我怎么说…
It's a fact, Greenspan's wrong.
I don't know how if you want your thr....

221
00:12:46,030 --> 00:12:47,310
麦克…
Look, Michael...

222
00:12:47,430 --> 00:12:50,780
四年前你还是个博士，只有个破网站和一点继承来的钱
Metro Capital backed you four years ago
when you were a Doctor with a

223
00:12:50,900 --> 00:12:53,360
我们全球国际资本就力挺你了
dinky web page
and some inheritance money,

224
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,780
一直以来业绩也不错…你继续做股票…
We've all done very well, look...
Why don't you just stick with stocks....

225
00:12:55,900 --> 00:12:58,100
你了解我这个人…我…我
You know me....
I, I, I, I,

226
00:12:58,220 --> 00:13:02,060
我的风格就是找能赚钱的地方
I look for value,
wherever it can be found.

227
00:13:02,180 --> 00:13:02,990
情况就是
The fact is

228
00:13:03,370 --> 00:13:05,410
这些房贷证券…
That these mortgage backed securities

229
00:13:05,530 --> 00:13:09,560
里面有相当高风险的可调利率房贷
Are filled with extremely risky
sub-prime adjustable rates.

230
00:13:09,860 --> 00:13:14,380
等这部分到07年左右开始发作
and when the majority of these
adjustable rates kick in.... in '07

231
00:13:14,830 --> 00:13:16,090
市场就会衰退
They will begin to fail

232
00:13:16,210 --> 00:13:19,850
如果最终能占到15%以上
整个房贷证券市场就毫无价值
and if they fail above 15 percent
the whole bond is worthless.

233
00:13:19,970 --> 00:13:23,230
麦克，停下来再想想，回头我再找你聊
-Michael, just take a beat,
we'll talk about this later!

234
00:13:23,350 --> 00:13:26,150
劳伦斯，别给我来这套…如果…
Lawrence please, don't patronize me,
if ... it .. is...

235
00:13:26,270 --> 00:13:30,380
房贷证券，次级贷，份额…
-Mortgage backed securities,
sub-prime loans, tranches....

236
00:13:31,250 --> 00:13:32,810
名词让人头疼是吧？
Is pretty confusing right?

237
00:13:32,930 --> 00:13:34,900
是不是让你觉得智商特别低
Doesn't it make you feel bored....
or stupid....

238
00:13:35,460 --> 00:13:36,860
这就是它的本意
Well... it's supposed to.

239
00:13:38,020 --> 00:13:42,040
华尔街特别爱用玄乎的词儿，让你觉得只有他们才能做的来
Wall-street loves to use confusing terms, to make you think only they can do what they do.

240
00:13:42,730 --> 00:13:44,010
或者你撒手不管
Or even better.....

241
00:13:44,130 --> 00:13:45,880
他们就更高兴了
for you just to leave them the fuck alone.

242
00:13:46,180 --> 00:13:49,010
我们让演员玛格在泡泡浴里解释给你听
So... here's Margot Robbie
in a bubble-bath to explain.

243
00:13:49,970 --> 00:13:55,050
大概意思就是，刘易斯的房贷证券
让大银行疯狂赚钱
Basically, Lewis Rainieri's mortgage bonds
were amazingly profitable for the big banks.

244
00:13:55,250 --> 00:13:59,750
他们从2%的买卖提成中赚了几十亿
They made billions and billions off of their 2% fee they got for selling each of these bonds

245
00:14:01,530 --> 00:14:04,960
但慢慢房贷不够用来组成证券了
But then they start ranning out of mortgages to put in them.

246
00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:10,390
毕竟房子和能买房的人都是有数儿的，对吧？
After all, there are only so many homes and so many people with good enough jobs to buy them... right?

247
00:14:11,630 --> 00:14:15,750
银行就开始把风险越来越高的房贷做成证券
So the banks started filling these
bonds with riskier and riskier mortgages

248
00:14:16,050 --> 00:14:17,030
谢了，亨利
Thank you Hendry

249
00:14:17,650 --> 00:14:21,060
这样的话，机器就能一直转着了
That way, they can keep that
profit machine churning right?

250
00:14:21,650 --> 00:14:25,740
对了，这些高风险的房贷，就叫：次级贷
By the way, these risky
mortgages are called: Sub-Prime.

251
00:14:26,220 --> 00:14:29,260
下回，听到次级贷这个词，你就想：狗屎贷
So... whenever you hear sub-prime...
think: Shit

252
00:14:30,150 --> 00:14:32,570
麦克老兄发现…
Our friend Michael Burry found out,

253
00:14:32,690 --> 00:14:34,190
这些房贷证券
that these mortgages bonds

254
00:14:34,310 --> 00:14:39,250
本来应该至少有65%的3A评级
但其实里面就是一坨屎
that were supposedly 65 percent AAA,
were actually just, basically full of shit.

255
00:14:40,850 --> 00:14:43,380
所以他要做空房贷证券
So now he's going to short the bonds

256
00:14:43,500 --> 00:14:45,020
也就是…赌房产市场跌
which means.... Bet against.

257
00:14:46,850 --> 00:14:49,530
懂了吧？太好了
Got it?....
Good!

258
00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:53,480
别看姐洗澡了！
Now fuck off!

259
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:57,650
很快人们就会发现这个机会的，咱们得快点干
It's only a matter of time before someone
else sees this investment, we have to act now.

260
00:14:57,770 --> 00:14:59,740
你怎么就知道这些证券不值钱？
How do you know the bonds are worthless?

261
00:15:00,340 --> 00:15:03,800
这里面不是他妈的有上千页房贷吗？
Aren't they filled with fucking
thousands of pages of mortgages?

262
00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:04,680
我都看了
I read them!

263
00:15:06,060 --> 00:15:07,660

  • 你都看了？ - 我都看了
    -You read them?
    I read.... Yeah!

264
00:15:08,010 --> 00:15:11,680
没人这么脑子进水，打包房贷的证券律师才不得不看
No-one reads them, only the lawyers
who put them together read them!

265
00:15:12,190 --> 00:15:15,570
我觉得他们也不懂纸里包的是什么
I don't think they even know what they've made

266
00:15:16,220 --> 00:15:21,120
有这些垃圾贷款，房地产注定火不起来
The housing market is
propped up on these bad loans.

267
00:15:22,450 --> 00:15:24,490
定时炸弹在，我要做空房产市场
It's a time-bomb and i want to short it.

268
00:15:24,610 --> 00:15:26,740
凭藉什么做空？
Through what instrument Michael?

269
00:15:26,990 --> 00:15:30,100
现在还没有做房贷证券的保险或期权
There are no insurance-contracts
or options for mortgage bonds.

270
00:15:30,220 --> 00:15:31,590
这证券太稳定没人做！
The bonds are too stable!

271
00:15:31,710 --> 00:15:32,980
劳伦斯…
Lawrence....

272
00:15:36,300 --> 00:15:37,750
我打算这么干…
This is what I'm gonna do....

273
00:15:37,870 --> 00:15:41,690
我要让银行，专门为我做一个金融工具
I am gonna get a bank to make me one.

274
00:15:42,910 --> 00:15:43,690
然后…
Then.....

275
00:15:45,470 --> 00:15:46,660
我再买下来
I'm gonna buy it.

276
00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:49,480
我不做这种买卖
I don't want that kind of business!

277
00:15:50,580 --> 00:15:52,680
这钱不干净，是黑心钱
Money is not money!
That's bad money!

278
00:15:53,750 --> 00:15:55,960
嘿！看着点！
Hey... Excuse me!

279
00:15:57,390 --> 00:16:02,360
我问你，什么公司这么玩弄客户
还能做大？
Let me ask you this: What company
treats its customers that shittily and succeeds?

280
00:16:03,700 --> 00:16:05,090
好吧…高盛银行…随便你
Fine. Okay, Goldman. You're right.

281
00:16:05,510 --> 00:16:10,540
马克之所以成功 是因为他从不为任何不合法的生意做担保
Mark Baum had built his career on never
assuming anyone or any company
was legit without proving it.

282
00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,210
他小的时候在犹太学院学法典时
When he was a kid he excelled
at studying the Talmud and Yeshiva.

283
00:16:14,330 --> 00:16:17,330
废话少说，有天他老师对他妈说
Whatever!
But, one day his Rabbi told his mom why.

284
00:16:17,670 --> 00:16:22,720
保罗不错，马克学习法典也成绩优异
Paul is a fine boy and Mark is an
excellent student of the Torah and Talmud

285
00:16:23,790 --> 00:16:25,080
那还有什么问题，老师？
Then what's the problem Rabbi?

286
00:16:25,900 --> 00:16:28,570
是因为马克努力学习的理由
It's the reason Mark is studying so hard.

287
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:33,370
他是想要找到上帝福音中的矛盾之处！
He's looking for inconsistencies
in the word of God!

288
00:16:35,990 --> 00:16:37,290
那他找到了吗？
So has he found any?

289
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,630
以后，马克就在华尔街成立了自己的基金
Later Baum started his own fund on Wall-street.

290
00:16:42,220 --> 00:16:43,790
他对屁话可是有狗一样嗅觉
He had an amazing nose for bullshit.

291
00:16:43,910 --> 00:16:47,200
哪里有蠢蛋在胡说，他都会给大伙指出来
He wasn't afraid to let anyone know,
when and where the bull had gone number 2.

292
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,830
后来马克经历了不幸，整个世界观都阴暗了
Then a tragedy happened to Mark
and it turned his whole world really dark

293
00:16:51,950 --> 00:16:53,920
开始觉得整个金融系统都是骗局
and ready to believe the whole system was a lie.

294
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:54,890
稍等
Hold on!

295
00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,800
辛西娅找我，我20分钟到办公室
It's Cynthia,
I'll be in the office in twenty minutes.

296
00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:00,760
亲爱的
Hi Honey!

297
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,800
咨询师打电话给我，你怎么又这样了
The therapist called....
You did it again!

298
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,090
没出租车有什么办法
There were no cabs...
What was i supposed to do?

299
00:17:09,210 --> 00:17:11,040
我很担心你的状态
I worry about you Mark!

300
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:11,880
我至少去报到了
At least i went

301
00:17:13,930 --> 00:17:17,110
你这样，像是想把全世界都理顺了
You're running around like you
have to right every wrong in the world.

302
00:17:17,230 --> 00:17:19,090

  • 好吧… - 一直气鼓鼓的
    -Ok... -How angry

303
00:17:19,340 --> 00:17:22,370
你说的对！我就是心眼小，现在还生气了！
Fine! You know what...
I'm a mean guy and I'm pissed off!

304
00:17:23,390 --> 00:17:28,750
可我这个圈子，留下烂摊子
擦屁股走人的太多
But... It is a shitstorm out here sweetie.
You have no idea the kind of crap people are pulling.

305
00:17:28,870 --> 00:17:32,110
大伙还脸上自带拍恩雅MTV的表情
and everybody is walking around like they're
in a goddamn Enya-video.

306
00:17:33,190 --> 00:17:34,430
以后他们全被玩完
They're all getting screwed you know!

307
00:17:34,550 --> 00:17:37,200
他们关心什么？关心球赛！
You know what they care about?
They care about the ballgame!

308
00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:39,970
关心哪个女演员去戒毒了！
Or they care about what
actresses went into rehab!

309
00:17:40,250 --> 00:17:42,470
你得让医生给你开点药了
I, I think you should try medication!

310
00:17:42,590 --> 00:17:45,460
不行，咱俩商量过，影响工作的药不能吃
No, no, we agreed,
if it interfered with work.

311
00:17:45,690 --> 00:17:48,120
你这么恨华尔街，消消气就别干了
you hate Wall-street,
but maybe it's time to quit?

312
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,250

  • 我爱这一行！- 你恨这一行！
    I love my job!
    -You hate your job!

313
00:17:50,370 --> 00:17:52,170

  • 我爱这一行！- 你都这么郁闷了！
    I love my job!
    -You're miserable!

314
00:17:52,290 --> 00:17:54,990
我爱我的工作，真的！
I love my job,
I love my job honey!

315
00:17:55,210 --> 00:17:55,900
马克！
Mark!

316
00:17:57,750 --> 00:18:00,610
想起发生的事情，我每天也心里不舒服
I am sad every day about what happened.

317
00:18:00,730 --> 00:18:03,820
你肯定也不好受，可你从来不表现出来
I know you must feel the same,
but you never show it!

318
00:18:10,430 --> 00:18:13,050
我知道你们兄弟俩关系很好
I knew how close you were to your brother.

319
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:17,130
卡布！
CAB!

320
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:19,990
你去哪儿了
Where'd ya go pal?

321
00:18:25,350 --> 00:18:26,160
卡布！
CAB!!

322
00:18:32,460 --> 00:18:35,390
每天我都觉得你想开口聊聊，可你总是忍着
Everyday i think you're gonna talk about it,
and you never do!

323
00:18:38,950 --> 00:18:42,530
你能试着做一点改变吗？
Will you ever think about
the idea of making a change?

324
00:18:42,650 --> 00:18:46,950
好吧，亲爱的，我会认真考虑的…
Fine, fine, honey, you know what,
i will consider it, but honestly....

325
00:18:47,310 --> 00:18:49,240
不过我真的没事儿，放心
Cynthia I'm OK,
I really am!

326
00:18:49,360 --> 00:18:51,550
嘿！这是我抢来的出租
Hey, Hey!
No, no, my cab!

327
00:18:51,670 --> 00:18:54,480
我的出租！我的！
That's my cab, that's my cab,
That is my cab!

328
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:56,830

  • 蠢货！ - 滚蛋！ - 你滚蛋！
    -Schmuck! -Fuck you! -Fuck you!

329
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:00,350
我等会再打给你
I'll call you later.

330
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:11,350
我要买…房贷证券的互换
I wanna buy....
swaps on mortgage bonds

331
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,390
这种信用违约互换，来担保
Credit default swap, that will pay off...

332
00:19:15,420 --> 00:19:17,930
房贷证券不能兑换的情况
If the underlying....
bond fails.

333
00:19:18,740 --> 00:19:20,300

  • 你想要赌房价跌？ - 是的
    -You want to bet against the housing market?
    Yes

334
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:21,000
高盛公司
Goldman Sachs

335
00:19:21,110 --> 00:19:21,730
为什么？
Why?

336
00:19:22,120 --> 00:19:25,690
除非有上百万的美国人房贷断供才有可能
Those bonds only fail if millions of
Americans don't pay their mortgages.

337
00:19:26,120 --> 00:19:27,780
历史上从来没有过这种事
That's never happened in history.

338
00:19:28,750 --> 00:19:31,250
恕我直言，贝利博士
我觉得您投资不太明智
If you'll excuse me Dr. Burry,
that seems like a foolish investment.

339
00:19:31,570 --> 00:19:36,670
按照市场和银行的主流预期和大众看法
Based on... prevailing sentiment of the
market and banks, and popular culture...

340
00:19:36,790 --> 00:19:39,780
我这么做是不明智
Yes, it's a foolish investment.
But eh...

341
00:19:39,900 --> 00:19:41,300
但是所有人都错了…
Everyone's wrong...

342
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:44,080
呵-呵-
That's a good one.

343
00:19:47,100 --> 00:19:50,660
贝利博士，华尔街是赚钱的地方
有免费的钱我们自然来者不拒
This is Wall-street Dr. Burry,
if you offer us free money, we're going to take it

344
00:19:50,780 --> 00:19:54,630
我唯一的顾虑是…万一房贷市场垮了…
My one concern is, is that.. eh..
when the bonds fail..

345
00:19:55,900 --> 00:19:57,730
我要确保你们赔付…
Eh... i want to be certain,

346
00:19:58,860 --> 00:20:02,580
你们万一偿还能力不够，我的钱怎么办
of payment,
in case of solvency issues with the bank.

347
00:20:03,670 --> 00:20:05,250
您不是在说笑吧
-I'm sorry, are you for real?

348
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,030
你想要赌房地产崩溃，还担心我们不能赔付你？
You want to bet against the housing market,
and you're worried we won't pay you?

349
00:20:09,150 --> 00:20:10,240
是的，就是这意思
yes.. that's correct.

350
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,800
我觉得我们能做成这笔买卖
Listen.. I think we will make this work

351
00:20:24,020 --> 00:20:26,240
房贷证券不可能出事的
mortgage bond is never gonna crash

352
00:20:26,360 --> 00:20:28,300
现在市场还非常稳固
bacause it's so solid right now

353
00:20:32,770 --> 00:20:34,320
那我们继续和他谈
getting on and deal with it

354
00:20:34,910 --> 00:20:36,900
嗯
Mmhhhh.

355
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:44,960
贝利博士，我们会制定一个现收现付的赔付办法
Dr Burry, we could work out a pay-as-we-go
structure that would payout if the bonds fail.

356
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:48,190
这也意味着，如果证券势头上涨
It would also apply to your payments
if the value of the mortgage-fund goes up

357
00:20:48,310 --> 00:20:50,160
你要每个月付给我们保险费用
You'd have to pay us monthly premiums.

358
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,230
您能同意这样的条款吗，贝利博士？
Is that acceptable Dr. Burry?

359
00:20:56,360 --> 00:20:57,830
很好…没问题
Yes.. it is, Yes.

360
00:20:58,540 --> 00:21:00,290
我这里有招股说明书
Em.. I have prospectuses on,

361
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,760
想给你看6个房贷证券
six mortgage-backed securities
i want to show you

362
00:21:08,530 --> 00:21:10,610
这些多数是审批过的房贷
The majority of them are accepted mortgages.

363
00:21:37,790 --> 00:21:39,710
贝利博士，这些应该没问题！
Dr Burry, these should be fine!

364
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:44,760
我们能卖给你5百万的房贷证券的信用违约互换
We're prepared to sell you 5 million
in credit default swaps on these mortgage bonds.

365
00:21:45,180 --> 00:21:47,400
能不能卖给我一亿？
Can we make it a hundred million?

366
00:21:49,580 --> 00:21:51,610
那也没问题！我们能准备好一亿
Absolutely! We can make it one-hundred million.

367
00:21:53,930 --> 00:21:56,910
我们会联系你，把文书发给你
We'll be in touch, send some paperwork over.

368
00:22:00,650 --> 00:22:04,970

  • 我挺喜欢这杯子的，想给我儿子带一个
  • 拿走吧！好的！
    I like these cups, could i take one for my son?
    -Have one, Yes, Yes!

369
00:22:05,090 --> 00:22:06,160
谢谢！
Thank you!

370
00:22:06,700 --> 00:22:07,790
拿走两个也行！
Have two!

371
00:22:07,990 --> 00:22:09,990
bgm: 《Money Maker》by Ludacris
BGM MONEY MAKER by LUDACRIS

372
00:22:10,190 --> 00:22:14,190
“互换”像两人对赌，如果房市上涨
那么麦克要按月交保险费，因为银行承担风险
credit default swaps

373
00:22:14,290 --> 00:22:18,290
如果房市崩溃，房贷证券无法交易
银行赔钱给麦克
credit default swaps

374
00:22:18,390 --> 00:22:23,890
与保险不同，互换不用真正去买被保的东西。
credit default swaps

375
00:22:27,590 --> 00:22:29,000
德意志银行
Deutsche Bank

376
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,340
有可能卖给我2亿吗？
Is there any way to do two-hundred million?

377
00:22:32,540 --> 00:22:34,720
我们是可以…但你得想清楚了
We can...
But are you sure?

378
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:39,260
当然…我们当然可以！
Absolutely...
Absolutely, we can!

379
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:44,460
国家银行和贷款公司
美国最大的次级房贷公司，08年被收购
Countrywide BANKING & HOME LOANS

380
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:47,060
美国银行
Bank of America

381
00:22:52,260 --> 00:22:56,580
我们有各种服务，比如园艺等…
-We do, eh... different projects
we do gardening, we do

382
00:22:56,700 --> 00:22:59,030
有关证券，我想…
（贝尔斯登公司）
the bonds.... I'd like to .. eh...

383
00:22:59,150 --> 00:23:01,380
别人说你走极端也没什么不好的

  • It's not bad for yourself to be found extreme

384
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:02,590
这样活着才酷！
It's very cool!

385
00:23:02,790 --> 00:23:03,290
2011年布莱尼在伦敦讨论自己首部电影
2011 Britney Spears talking about Crossroads in London

386
00:23:03,390 --> 00:23:04,490
2007年 吉姆•克拉默谈次级贷
2007 Jim Cramer

387
00:23:05,190 --> 00:23:06,390
好比我本来想买24盎司的T骨牛排
I ordered the 24-ounce T-bone

388
00:23:06,490 --> 00:23:09,290
结果却拿到了8盎司的碎肉
which was choice rather than the 8-ounce filet I went for volume

389
00:23:09,490 --> 00:23:11,490
我想买顶级的，却买了次级的…
rather than prime I went for subprime.. and just..

390
00:23:13,590 --> 00:23:15,090
瑞士瑞信银行
Credit Suisse

391
00:23:22,690 --> 00:23:24,690
我们想你了
We miss you.

392
00:23:34,940 --> 00:23:38,470
兰德，三个月后才发奖金，你现在就这么逍遥
Hey Randall, what with the Dom?
Bonuses aren't for three months.

393
00:23:38,590 --> 00:23:42,540
我们刚卖了2亿的房贷证券的信用违约互换
We just sold 200 million in
credit-swaps for mortgage-bonds

394
00:23:42,820 --> 00:23:46,190
加利福尼亚冒出来的疯子基金经理
Some fund-manager from California,
fucking crazy right?!

395
00:23:46,310 --> 00:23:47,940
老伙计，咱们就得赚傻子的钱！
Only way to make money dog!

396
00:23:48,060 --> 00:23:49,850
有这种违约互换？
-I didn't know there were swaps on mortgages

397
00:23:50,130 --> 00:23:52,480
现在就有了，陪他玩儿么
There are now, we made it for him!

398
00:23:52,750 --> 00:23:55,210
他脑袋估计塞屁股里去了吧
His head must have caught up with his hole
or do something... I don't know.

399
00:23:55,750 --> 00:23:57,460

  • 来一杯吗 - 稍等
    Want one? No?

400
00:23:59,050 --> 00:23:59,780
杰瑞德
Jared

401
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,890
你听说了兰德和一个基金经理做的买卖吗
Did you hear about the deal
that Randall did with some fund-manager?

402
00:24:03,010 --> 00:24:05,190
兰德？扯蛋吧
Randall?
Bullshit!

403
00:24:05,420 --> 00:24:07,550
他没脑子，肯定不是赚钱买卖
He's a foot-soldier,
I'm sure it's a shit deal.

404
00:24:07,670 --> 00:24:08,390
是真的！
No, It's for real!

405
00:24:08,590 --> 00:24:09,590
杰瑞德•威内特
Jared Vennett

406
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,180
跟你说过咱们会再见面的
I told you we'd meet later.

407
00:24:11,300 --> 00:24:13,760
不巧是这种鬼地方，我平常不会来的
Unfortunately... It's in a place like this,
which i would never be in.

408
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,860
我不和这些傻子下班后散心
我的朋友比他们有品味
I never hung out with these idiots after work, Ever!
I had fashion friends.

409
00:24:18,650 --> 00:24:21,380
看起来，确实有人要买2亿的信用违约互换
Apparently this guy wanted
two-hundred mill in credit default swaps.

410
00:24:22,100 --> 00:24:23,900
兰德也做成了买卖，你敢信？
Randall made the sale,
can you believe it?

411
00:24:24,020 --> 00:24:26,160
有人敢做空2亿的房贷证券？
Somebody shorted two-hundred mill
in mortgage bonds?

412
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:27,500
这还只是在德意志银行…
That was just with Deutsche...

413
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:29,890
听传闻说，他扫遍了半个城市的银行
Word is... he had half the town.

414
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:31,500
总共多少？
How much in total?

415
00:24:31,750 --> 00:24:33,320
一共13亿
1.3 billion

416
00:24:33,550 --> 00:24:34,130
说什么？
-What?

417
00:24:34,870 --> 00:24:37,430
赛恩的流动资金也就这么多啊！
That's... that's pretty much all of Scion's liquidity!

418
00:24:37,550 --> 00:24:39,240
麦克，你这太过分了吧
Michael, that's highly distressing!

419
00:24:39,690 --> 00:24:42,880
劳伦斯…我们流动资金没用完！
Lawrence....
That is not all of our liquidity!

420
00:24:43,770 --> 00:24:46,770
我觉得，你没弄明白这买卖是怎么回事
And I'm not certain that you
really understand this trade.

421
00:24:46,890 --> 00:24:48,210
这是必赚的钱
This is a certainty.

422
00:24:48,330 --> 00:24:50,980
麦克，我和你平常是师生关系都好说
Mike, i consider myself a mentor to you.

423
00:24:51,580 --> 00:24:54,450
但是这笔投资对公司绝对不合适
But our company is not
comfortable with this investment.

424
00:24:54,700 --> 00:24:56,310

  • 我说话你听明白了吗？
  • 劳伦斯
    Am i being clear?
  • Lawrence

425
00:24:56,430 --> 00:25:00,510
对于投资策略，我拥有完全自主权
I have full autonomy when it
comes to investment strategy

426
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:02,100
你去看合同
You can read our agreement.

427
00:25:02,220 --> 00:25:04,970
别给我扯官腔，麦克！
Do not throw our acception-
agreement in my face Michael!

428
00:25:05,850 --> 00:25:09,070
那是咱俩有内部共识的基础上
现在你就像个疯子一样
We had an underlying understanding,
you wouldn't act like a goddamn crazy man!

429
00:25:09,190 --> 00:25:10,460
这不是疯狂
This is not crazy....

430
00:25:11,250 --> 00:25:12,580
这完全是逻辑推理
it's all very logical.

431
00:25:12,700 --> 00:25:17,290
那现在我们就每月付费，坐等着房地产崩溃？
So now we pay up premiums on these swaps against
housing-market until the mortgages fail?

432
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:19,220
也就是说…
In other words...

433
00:25:19,340 --> 00:25:22,640
马上就损失了几百万，除非天真塌下来？
we lose millions until something
that has never happened before... Happens?

434
00:25:24,540 --> 00:25:26,240
“我是我命运的主宰，灵魂的统帅”
-英国诗人 威廉•亨利《永不屈服》
I AM the MASTER of my FATE and the CAPTAIN of my SOUL

435
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:27,590
说的没错！
That's correct!

436
00:25:27,790 --> 00:25:29,390
股市逻辑；房地产评估
全球市场上的知识产权
STOCK MARKET LOGIC, The Appraisal of Real Estate
Intellectual property in the global marketplace

437
00:25:29,590 --> 00:25:30,590
亚当•斯密
Adam Smith

438
00:25:36,500 --> 00:25:37,500
信用违约互换？
credit default swap?
Have you lost your mind? Credit default swap?
你疯了吗？信用违约互换？

439
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:38,600
房价大涨 退钱
Housing spike peak withdrawing money

440
00:25:40,500 --> 00:25:41,500
给信用违约互换交保费？？
Premiums on credit default swaps??

441
00:25:35,090 --> 00:25:36,290
我要赚钱，不是交钱，我要撤资了
I want profits, not premium. withdrawal from fund

442
00:25:49,300 --> 00:25:52,800
有病吧 为什么我要交保费
你得小心 你想清楚了没有？
This is crazy why am I paying premiums?
You should be careful Have you thought this through?

443
00:26:01,250 --> 00:26:03,790

  • 你好 马克 - 你好 凯茜
    -Hello Mark Baum
    Oh hey Kathy!

444
00:26:03,910 --> 00:26:06,820

  • 别怪我，我下午有私事
  • 我不是你的保姆
    It wasn't me, I had a personal thing this afternoon.
    -I'm not your babysitter.

445
00:26:06,940 --> 00:26:09,340
只要你给咱们摩根士丹利赚钱，我就开心！
If your appoint makes money for Morgan Stanley
I'm happy!

446
00:26:09,460 --> 00:26:11,910
好吧…听说你要生了？
OK... Hey did I hear you're expecting?

447
00:26:12,030 --> 00:26:13,310
那个…我们是打算要小孩…
Ehh, we're expecting to be expecting...

448
00:26:13,430 --> 00:26:15,710

  • 虽然我不好解释得太清楚…
  • 那也是好事儿！
    I'd be upset clearing this out, but we're ..
  • That's exciting!

449
00:26:20,570 --> 00:26:22,200
蛋蛋那里有个肿块
Lump.. in my ball

450
00:26:22,660 --> 00:26:24,490
我去检查了一下
I'll go in for a scan
-Hmm

451
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,430
结果是叫什么“附睾”肿了
Turns out i have large thing,
called an epididymis

452
00:26:28,890 --> 00:26:31,110
这东西环绕着蛋蛋
Which is a thing that goes around the ball

453
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:32,970
好像下面兜着个口袋一样
And is like a sack underneath.

454
00:26:33,090 --> 00:26:37,960
我的附睾清晰可见
（附睾发炎）
Inflamed epididymis
I have an extremely pronounced epididymis

455
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,830
肿得和睾丸一样大
Almost as large as another testicle on itself

456
00:26:41,950 --> 00:26:44,520
伙计们听我说，辛西娅…
So get this.... Cynthia..
Guys!

457
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,160
想让我辞职不干了！
让我在佛蒙特州开个过夜旅馆
Cynthia wants me to quit!
And open a B&B in Vermont.

458
00:26:48,660 --> 00:26:51,450
挺好的主意！我挺想看你会怎么开旅馆
That's great!
I'd love to see Mark Baum run a Bed and Breakfast!

459
00:26:52,140 --> 00:26:54,030
估计是这样：吃你的燕麦粥吧，傻逼！
Like: Here's your steel-cut oatmeal asshole!

460
00:26:54,150 --> 00:26:56,890
马克不愿意讨好那些能开出支票的顾客
Mark refused to kiss the ring
of the people with the checkbooks,

461
00:26:57,010 --> 00:26:59,680
所以才委屈自己在摩根士丹利旗下开设基金
so he had to set up his fund
under Morgan Stanley's umbrella.

462
00:27:00,550 --> 00:27:03,470
他的团队也反映出他对金融系统的质疑态度
His small team his...
distrust of the system.

463
00:27:03,590 --> 00:27:05,100
你们一群变态！变态！
You guys are sick..
You're sick!

464
00:27:05,220 --> 00:27:07,040
她说，这工作让我不爽
She says, this job is making me unhappy.

465
00:27:07,410 --> 00:27:08,600
可你不爽的时候反倒挺爽的
-But you're happy when you're unhappy!

466
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:09,880
我是在不爽的时候感觉挺爽的
I am happy when I'm unhappy!

467
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,250
文尼•丹尼尔

  • 你知道怎么做松饼吗？
    Vinny Daniel
    -You know how to make a muffin?

468
00:27:12,370 --> 00:27:13,790
文尼是马克手下懂数字的人
Mark's numbers guy.

469
00:27:13,910 --> 00:27:15,600
你连怎么洗衣服都不知道吧？铺床呢？
Do you even know how to do laundry? Make a bed? -Okay!

470
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,210
文尼小的时候，爸爸就因为一场恶性犯罪去世了
Vinny lost his father to a
violent crime when he was young

471
00:27:18,330 --> 00:27:20,090
和马克一样，他也从来不说起这事
Just like Mark,
he didn't talk about it.

472
00:27:20,210 --> 00:27:21,710
我就是不说
-I don't talk about that!

473
00:27:21,830 --> 00:27:23,860
辛西娅这么认真，还真有可能赶他到佛蒙特州去
Cynthia's no joke, she could actually make him move to Vermont!

474
00:27:23,980 --> 00:27:25,620
她都逼着我穿西服了
I mean, she made me start wearing a suit.

475
00:27:26,210 --> 00:27:29,800
伯特•柯林斯，布朗大学的奥运会级别划船手
Porter Collins, former Olympic rower,
went to Brown.

476
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,460
从上一个公司和马克一起过来
搞不懂为什么没人听马克的
He worked with Baum at a previous firm, and couldn't figure out why no-one listened to Baum.

477
00:27:33,580 --> 00:27:35,290
他觉得马克提出的都是好点子
The guy with all the good ideas.

478
00:27:35,660 --> 00:27:40,530
你是不是打错电话了？
这里还有个叫顶尖基金的公司？
Sir, yeah, i know, do you have the wrong FrontPoint?
Cause there is another front-point in this same building that is Baum's

479
00:27:40,650 --> 00:27:43,870
丹尼•摩西，是这群人里的乐天派
And Danny Moses, the optimist of the bunch.

480
00:27:44,580 --> 00:27:48,240
他是交易鬼才
也这是大伙容忍他傻瓜式乐天派的唯一原因
And a hell of a trader, which is the
only reason they put up with his bullshit optimism.

481
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,900
伙计，你对打错电话的也太客气了
You're a weird caller, you take longer
with a wrong number than anybody else

482
00:27:53,020 --> 00:27:58,500
这家伙是德意志银行的，说什么做空房贷证券
I mean... it's this guy... from... Deutsche,
who was talking about shorting housing bonds.

483
00:28:00,100 --> 00:28:02,570
说到中间，我才听出他找错人了
And then, in the middle of the call where I had realized he had the wrong front-point.

484
00:28:02,690 --> 00:28:05,620
然后他说想要找8层的那个公司
and then... and then...
cause he wanted the one on the eighth floor.

485
00:28:05,740 --> 00:28:07,660

  • 他想要做空房贷证券？- 嗯
    He wanted to short housing bonds?
  • Hmmm

486
00:28:07,780 --> 00:28:10,170
每天至少5个拨错的电话
-It happens like five times a day, that somebody uses the wrong front-point.

487
00:28:10,290 --> 00:28:11,800
咱们得改个名了
We should change our name!

488
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,180
稍等，他想要做空房贷证券？
Wait, wait...
He wanted to short housing bonds?

489
00:28:14,570 --> 00:28:15,890
赌房价跌吗？
Who bets against housing?

490
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:18,890

  • 资产担保证券指数到几点了？- 这指数什么意思？
  • What's the ABX at? - What's ABX?

491
00:28:19,010 --> 00:28:22,860

  • 用来跟踪次级房贷证券的价值
  • 快睡你的觉！
    -It tracks sub-prime mortgage bond value.
    -Go back to sleep!

492
00:28:23,250 --> 00:28:25,900
指数在…
The ABX is at ... eh....

493
00:28:26,020 --> 00:28:29,610
我的天！降下来了，去年到现在降了3点
这不对劲
Wow! it's down,
It's down 3 points since last year, that's weird.

494
00:28:29,730 --> 00:28:31,100
怎么一点动静都没听到过
I haven't heard a peep about that!

495
00:28:31,460 --> 00:28:35,030
这人叫啥？杰瑞德…威内特
What was this guys name?
Jared Vennett... Vennett

496
00:28:35,150 --> 00:28:37,680
这是真的！这群中奖了的杂种因为我拨错的电话
That's right!
These lucky sons of bitches caught wind

497
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:41,520
抓住了华尔街历史上最好的一桩交易
of one of the best trades in
Wall-street history from a wrong number.

498
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,290
他们应该给我的错误电话线路抽成10%
They should've paid 10 percent
to my fuck up state system

499
00:28:44,410 --> 00:28:46,330
叫杰瑞德•威内特
He was Jared Vennett, Vennett

500
00:28:46,450 --> 00:28:50,050

  • 杰瑞德•威内特，德意志银行，听着就不靠谱
  • 听他说话就让人不爽
    Jared Vennett, from Deutsche, sounded very sketchy.
    -Sounds like a douche-bag.

501
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,070

  • 你们好啊
  • 请坐
    OK.. Hi.... how are you?!
    -Have a seat!

502
00:29:04,190 --> 00:29:08,110
来自德意志银行的杰瑞德，我们洗耳恭听了
Hey mister Vennett from Deutsche Bank,
who do we have?

503
00:29:17,220 --> 00:29:20,280

  • 你和多少人聊过？ - 有几个
    So, how many people have you talked to about this trade? - A few.

504
00:29:21,030 --> 00:29:22,530
有意向的还不少
There's definitely some interest.

505
00:29:22,650 --> 00:29:22,970
噢
Ohh..

506
00:29:23,090 --> 00:29:24,500
我老板知道了非得弄死我不可
My boss would have my ass

507
00:29:24,620 --> 00:29:25,500
你疯了吧？杰瑞
are you crazy Jer?

508
00:29:25,620 --> 00:29:26,080
别废话！
Get lost!

509
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:27,060
滚蛋！
Fuck you!

510
00:29:27,930 --> 00:29:30,380
所以你才打错电话给我们
Which is why you're here
talking to us on the wrong number?

511
00:29:30,740 --> 00:29:32,940

  • 听着确实感兴趣的人不少哇
  • 好吧
    Sounds like there's a lot of interest.
    -Alright.

512
00:29:33,650 --> 00:29:37,260
有的人和我聊天就是看笑话寻开心
你们也不想谈正事吗？
A few people have us in,
just to laugh at me on this deal, is that you?

513
00:29:37,380 --> 00:29:38,260
你们也是这意思？
Is that what this is?

514
00:29:38,380 --> 00:29:40,550
我们不是这类人，就马克爱开这种玩笑
That's not what this is,
that's just how Mark is.

515
00:29:41,350 --> 00:29:42,200
和我们详细说说
Let's see what you got.

516
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,800

  • 你闻到什么东西了吗？- 什么？
    I'm sorry, do you smell that, what is that?
  • What?

517
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,070

  • 这是什么味道？ - 古龙水吗？
    What's that smell?
    -Cologne?

518
00:29:47,610 --> 00:29:49,220
不…
No....

519
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:51,870
发财的机会！
Opportunity!

520
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:53,900
不…钱的味道
No... Money.

521
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:56,780
我闻到钱味儿了…
I smell money...

522
00:29:56,900 --> 00:29:57,880
克里斯…
Chris....

523
00:29:58,220 --> 00:29:59,530

  • 手脚利索点
  • 抱歉
    goddammit!
    -I'm sorry.

524
00:30:02,820 --> 00:30:04,670
这就是你们房贷证券的构成
This is your basic mortgage bond.

525
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,320
开始很简单
Alright, the originals were simple.

526
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,100
就是几千个3A级房贷组合起来
They were just thousands of
AAA-mortgages bundled together,

527
00:30:11,220 --> 00:30:13,060
政府担保
guaranteed by the US-government.

528
00:30:13,180 --> 00:30:14,820
而现代的房贷证券就不一样了
The modern ones are different.

529
00:30:14,940 --> 00:30:18,490
是私营的，而且由分层份额构成
They're private.
And they're made up of layers of tranches.

530
00:30:19,690 --> 00:30:21,790
份额一词来源于法语，意为某物的一部分
A tranche is a French word meaning "a portion of sth."

531
00:30:23,410 --> 00:30:25,670
最高的3A级最先偿还
Highest level AAA's getting paid first.

532
00:30:25,790 --> 00:30:28,600
最差的B级最后还，会首先断供
The lowest rated B's getting paid last,
taking on defaults first.

533
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,780
显然断供的B级，能要回更多的钱来
No obviously if you're buying B's
you could make more money.

534
00:30:31,900 --> 00:30:34,410
但是有点风险，有时候也可能偿还不了
But, they're a little risky,
sometimes they fail.

535
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:37,600
克里斯…
Chris...

536
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:46,170
某处开始，有些B级或者2B级
从有点风险，变成狗屎贷
Somewhere along the line, these B's and BB's
went from a little risky to dogshit.

537
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:47,860
垃圾桶在哪
Where's the trash?

538
00:30:49,490 --> 00:30:51,910
我说的是最低的信用评分
I'm talking rock-bottom Fico-scores.

539
00:30:53,370 --> 00:30:55,070
没有收入核实
No Income-verification.

540
00:30:56,310 --> 00:30:58,340
可调利率贷款…就是狗屎
adjustable rates...
Dogshit!

541
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,260
违约率已经到了1至4个百分点
The default-rates are already up from one to four percent fellas.

542
00:31:03,380 --> 00:31:05,930
等到了8%…也肯定会到的
And if they rise to eight percent...
and they will!

543
00:31:06,660 --> 00:31:08,540
那这些3B级的房贷也会一钱不值
A lot of these BBB's
are going to zero too.

544
00:31:08,660 --> 00:31:10,670
这…别离我这么近
And that....
You're too close...

545
00:31:12,060 --> 00:31:13,570
这就是发财机会
Is an opportunity.

546
00:31:13,690 --> 00:31:17,660
你说8%的警戒线，现在已经到4%了？
OK, You're saying that at 8 percent
the bonds fail and we're already at 4 percent?

547
00:31:17,780 --> 00:31:20,430

  • 没错 - 到了8就是世界末日了
    That's right.
    -If they go to eight.... It's Armageddon.

548
00:31:20,790 --> 00:31:23,450

  • 是的 - 那怎么没人提到过这事儿
    Yeah that's right.
    -How come nobody's talking about this?

549
00:31:23,570 --> 00:31:25,180
你计算没问题吗？
And you're completely sure of the math?

550
00:31:25,620 --> 00:31:26,580
好好看看他…
Look at him...

551
00:31:27,490 --> 00:31:28,710
他是我的矿工！
That's my Quant!

552
00:31:28,830 --> 00:31:29,780
你的啥？
-Your what?

553
00:31:29,900 --> 00:31:33,190
我的量化研究员…我的数学专家！瞧瞧他！
My quantitative... My maths specialist!
Look at him!

554
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,630
看到有什么与众不同的吗？看看他的脸！
You notice anything different about him?
Look at his face!

555
00:31:36,930 --> 00:31:37,530
你这也太种族歧视了…
That's very racist

556
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,070
看看他的眼睛！我提示你们一下…
Look at his eyes!
I'll give you a hint..

557
00:31:40,190 --> 00:31:41,460
他的名字叫做“杨”！
His name is Yang!

558
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,040
他得了国家数学竞赛的金牌…还是中国的竞赛！
He won a national maths competition..
In China!

559
00:31:46,420 --> 00:31:48,410
他连英语都不会说！
He doesn't even speak English!

560
00:31:49,150 --> 00:31:50,790
所以没错！我对数字有信心
Yeah!
I'm sure of the math.

561
00:31:52,530 --> 00:31:54,240
其实我名字叫“江”
Actually, my name is JIANG

562
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,230
我也会说英语
and... I do speak English

563
00:31:56,350 --> 00:31:59,800
杰瑞喜欢这么说，是想要让我看起来更牛逼一些
Jared likes to say it though..
because he thinks it makes me seem more authentic

564
00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:03,100
我…其实得了数学竞赛第二名
And... i got second in that
national math competition

565
00:32:03,220 --> 00:32:06,440
所以你让我们做空这堆积木吗？
So.... You're offering us a chance
to short this pile of blocks?

566
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:07,330
怎么做空？
How?

567
00:32:08,010 --> 00:32:10,510
用信用违约互换来做
With something called a credit default swap.

568
00:32:11,540 --> 00:32:15,580
就像是证券的保险，不过如果证券完了
那你能拿到10倍的赔偿
It's like insurance on the bond, and if it goes bust,
you can make 10-to-1.

569
00:32:15,700 --> 00:32:19,330
甚至有可能拿到20倍，崩溃趋势已经开始了
Even 20-to-1 return,
and it's already slowly going bust.

570
00:32:19,450 --> 00:32:21,870
10倍，20倍，怎么可能！
10-to-1, 20-to-1....
No way!

571
00:32:21,990 --> 00:32:23,500
也没人注意到
And no-one is paying attention.

572
00:32:24,730 --> 00:32:26,840
没人亲自去了解
No-one is paying attention.

573
00:32:27,290 --> 00:32:31,780
银行忙着卖证券，暗地里拿提成
Because the banks are too busy
getting paid obscene fees to sell these bonds.

574
00:32:31,900 --> 00:32:33,320
稍等…可你就是银行的人
But wait.... You are the bank

575
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,630
你为银行工作，那你的提成也富的流油吧
You work for the bank,
i bet your margins are pretty nice and fat.

576
00:32:36,750 --> 00:32:38,680
我的提成和这个没关系
Let's not talk about my margins by the way.

577
00:32:39,340 --> 00:32:42,150
这是我私事…好比我看你衬衫不错
问你在哪买来的女装，好玩吗
Being nice and fat....
That's a nice shirt, do they make it for men?

578
00:32:42,850 --> 00:32:43,720
你不替银行说话？
Aren't you the bank?

579
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:44,750
我给银行打工
I work for the bank!

580
00:32:45,460 --> 00:32:46,670
我脑子没卖给银行
I don't think like a bank

581
00:32:46,790 --> 00:32:48,870
大银行小银行，我赚的是钱
Big banks, small bank...
I like to make money.

582
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,590
好吧…让我直说
Alright...Let me put it this way....

583
00:32:51,830 --> 00:32:53,510
这就像我来到失火大楼前面
I'm standing in front of a burning house,

584
00:32:53,630 --> 00:32:56,260
现场让你们买火灾保险
And I'm offering you fire insurance on it

585
00:32:56,500 --> 00:32:59,010
怎么可能这些证券像你说得那么差
-How can these underlying bonds be... as bad as you say?

586
00:32:59,130 --> 00:32:59,990
没人管吗
It wouldn't be legal!

587
00:33:00,340 --> 00:33:01,820
没人知道里面装的什么东西
Nobody knows what's in them!

588
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:03,950
没人知道在证券里有什么鬼
Nobody knows, what's in the bonds,

589
00:33:04,070 --> 00:33:06,750
我见到过65%达到3A评级的
I've seen some that are 65 percent AAA-rating.

590
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:11,610
其实95%都是次级狗屎
That i know, for a fact, are filled
with 95 percent sub-prime shit.

591
00:33:11,730 --> 00:33:13,410
信用评分都低于550
（FICO评分300-850，700以上认为是优）
With Fico's below 550

592
00:33:13,530 --> 00:33:14,580
你就吹吧！
Get the fuck out of here!

593
00:33:14,700 --> 00:33:15,870
真想被我吹晕了吗？
Want me to really blow your mind?

594
00:33:15,990 --> 00:33:18,940
要是市场觉得一个证券风险太高了怎么办？
When the market deems a bond too risky to buy,
what do you think we do with it?

595
00:33:19,900 --> 00:33:21,200
你们猜吧！
Take a guess!

596
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:22,560
我不知道，才让你说
I don't know, you tell me!

597
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:23,660
好…
Alright...

598
00:33:23,780 --> 00:33:26,030
你以为像书本上说的用仓单存货抵押吗？
You think we just warehouse it on the books?

599
00:33:26,150 --> 00:33:29,300
假的，实际上我们重新打包
混上其他卖不出去的东西
No, we just repackage it,
with a bunch of other shit that didn't sell

600
00:33:29,420 --> 00:33:31,020
放到CDO里面卖
and put it into a CDO.

601
00:33:31,370 --> 00:33:33,930

  • CDO？ - 对，这东西叫CDO
    A CDO?
    -Yes... a CDO.

602
00:33:34,050 --> 00:33:34,950
是什么？
What is that?

603
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,160
把一些没人买的B，2B，3B级烂贷
Where we take a bunch of
B's, BB's and BBB's that haven't sold

604
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:39,950
打包成一堆…
and we put em in a pile...

605
00:33:41,750 --> 00:33:46,000
数量差不多了，就忽然叫做“分散化投资”了
and when the pile gets large enough, the whole is suddenly considered 'Diversified'.

606
00:33:46,410 --> 00:33:48,340
等着…评级机构的婊子们
and then... the whores of the rating agency,

607
00:33:48,460 --> 00:33:52,630
评个百分之92到93的3A级别
其他屁都不放
Give it a 92 / 93 percent AAA-rating,
no questions asked...

608
00:33:54,610 --> 00:33:56,920
我操！你再说一遍！
Holy... what!
Say that again!

609
00:33:57,790 --> 00:33:59,450
CDO，担保债务凭证
(CDO)Collateralized Debt Obligations

610
00:34:00,050 --> 00:34:02,570
理解CDO很重要，CDO才是让房产危机…
It's important to understand,
because it's what allowed the housing crisis

611
00:34:02,690 --> 00:34:05,060
…祸害全国经济的关键
become a nationwide economic disaster.

612
00:34:05,990 --> 00:34:09,280
让我们的世界顶级厨师安东尼•伯尔顿解释一下
Here's world-famous chef
Anthony Bourdain to explain.

613
00:34:13,660 --> 00:34:17,310
假设我正给一个周日下午的大餐厅备菜
OK, I'm a chef on a Sunday-afternoon
setting the menu of a big restaurant.

614
00:34:17,430 --> 00:34:21,580
我周五定购的鱼，就好比麦克做空的房贷证券
I ordered my fish on Friday, which is
the mortgage bond that Michael Burry shorted.

615
00:34:21,940 --> 00:34:23,810
有些鱼…没卖出去…
But... some of the fresh doesn't sell..

616
00:34:23,930 --> 00:34:25,580
我也不知道原因，没准这比目鱼成精了…
I don't know why, maybe it just came halibut

617
00:34:25,700 --> 00:34:27,250
有海豚一样的智商
has the intelligence of a dolphin.

618
00:34:27,370 --> 00:34:29,000
那我该怎么办呢？
So... what am i gonna do?

619
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:33,470
把这些3B评级的鱼扔掉吗？
throw all this unsold fish,
which is the BBB-level of bond, in the garbage?

620
00:34:33,590 --> 00:34:34,620
认亏了？
and take the loss?

621
00:34:36,340 --> 00:34:37,240
没必要！
No way!

622
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,730
我这么心灵手巧…
Being a crafty and
morally honorous chef that i am...

623
00:34:39,850 --> 00:34:44,340
每种卖不掉的烂证券，我都扔到海鲜汤里去
Every crappy levels of the bond i don't sell...
i throw into a seafood stew.

624
00:34:44,610 --> 00:34:48,140
这不再是烂鱼！这是新东西！
It's not old fish!
It's a whole new thing!

625
00:34:48,260 --> 00:34:51,110
最妙的地方就在于…卖给顾客的名头，是零售比目鱼
The best part is....
They're eating retailed halibut!

626
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:53,670
这…就是CDO
That... is a CDO.

627
00:34:53,790 --> 00:34:56,660
怎么可能这些东西被攒到一起
I just need to know
how these could possibly be correlated.

628
00:34:57,020 --> 00:35:01,200
你好像《爱探险的朵拉》主人公
老是第一个发现大新闻
You're like D- D- Dora the Explorering,
you're the first person who has found this...

629
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,590
稍等…你是说房贷证券是狗屎？
So.. hold on..
So mortgage bonds are dogshit?

630
00:35:03,870 --> 00:35:06,350
CDO是猫屎包起来的狗屎
CDO's are dogshit wrapped in catshit.

631
00:35:07,380 --> 00:35:08,970
对，就是这个理儿
Yeah... that's right!

632
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,820
机构们还把CDO当成国库券一样的宝贝
Institutions treat these CDO's like
they're as solid as treasury bonds.

633
00:35:12,940 --> 00:35:14,920
等着它们一钱不值吧
and they're going to zero..

634
00:35:15,340 --> 00:35:19,530
不对啊，去年一年就卖了5千亿的房贷证券
No, that can't be right, there, there, are
500 billion in housing bonds sold last year alone

635
00:35:19,650 --> 00:35:22,840
信用评级机构，银行
政府也掺和在里面？
Ratings agencies, the banks....
the fucking government?

636
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,060
你这就像在说他们闭着眼开车
You're saying they're all
asleep at the wheel?

637
00:35:25,180 --> 00:35:28,640
没错！我整个部门都对这种狗屎流口水
Yeah! My whole department is long this stuff.

638
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,290
他们反倒叫我胆小鸡仔
They call me chicken little.

639
00:35:32,130 --> 00:35:33,810
他们叫我泡沫男孩
They call me Bubble-boy.

640
00:35:36,030 --> 00:35:37,840
A级…废了
A's ... Zero.

641
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:41,350
B级废了，2B级废了
B's.. Zero,
BB's ..... Zero.

642
00:35:41,470 --> 00:35:43,440
3B级…也是废品
BBB's .... Zero.

643
00:35:45,470 --> 00:35:46,800
接下来就是这个了！
And then that happens!

644
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:48,320
这…是啥？
What... is that?

645
00:35:50,500 --> 00:35:52,420
这就是美国的房产市场
That's America's housing market.

646
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:57,260

  • 谢谢 - 你说得好棒！
    Thank you.
  • Fucking A Jared!

647
00:35:57,380 --> 00:35:59,150
给我闭嘴！
Shut your fucking mouth!

648
00:36:12,490 --> 00:36:14,350
再见 杰瑞德！
Bye Jared!

649
00:36:20,100 --> 00:36:21,250
这不对劲
I don't like it!

650
00:36:22,690 --> 00:36:23,990
他肯定有猫腻
He's playing us.

651
00:36:25,220 --> 00:36:28,670
他在玩我们，他陷得太深了，拉人垫背来脱身
He's playing us, he's got too much skin in the game,
and he's dumping his position.

652
00:36:29,850 --> 00:36:31,090
要是他说的是真的呢
What if he's right?

653
00:36:31,570 --> 00:36:33,910

  • 你当然希望他说的是真的！
  • 我是希望！
    You want him to be right!
    -Yes, I do!

654
00:36:34,530 --> 00:36:38,110
银行给我们信用卡的利息是25%
The banks have given us twenty-five percent
interest rates on credit cards.

655
00:36:38,230 --> 00:36:41,170
助学贷款也坑了大家，普通人已经没法脱身了
They have screwed us on student-loans,
so we can never get out from under.

656
00:36:41,290 --> 00:36:44,640
然后这家伙，走到我办公室里说
Then this guy, walks into my office and says:

657
00:36:45,020 --> 00:36:47,760
这些银行太贪婪，已经忽视了市场真相了
"Those same banks got greedy, they lost track of the market"

658
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,110
然后我还能通过他们的愚蠢赚钱
And i can profit off of their stupidity

659
00:36:50,230 --> 00:36:51,720
我靠！我当然希望他是对的！
Fuck! Yeah!
I want him to be right!

660
00:36:52,230 --> 00:36:55,630
你怎么能不讨厌他？
你告诫我们注意的骗子特征他身上全有
I mean, how come you don't hate this guy?
He's everything you taught us not to trust!

661
00:36:55,750 --> 00:36:59,340
我恨不起来！他这么把自己的利益摆到台面上
我倒挺尊敬他
You can't hate him! He is so transparent
in his self-interest that i kinda respect him.

662
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:01,700
我会从这种人手里买车吗？肯定不会
Would i buy a car from him?...
No!

663
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,820
但是他说的房贷市场情况是否属实？
咱们自己去调查看看，去调查
Is he right about the mortgage market?
Let's find out. Let's find out!

664
00:37:08,430 --> 00:37:10,200
我们只要回答两个简单问题
Look... It's two very simple questions:

665
00:37:10,570 --> 00:37:14,010
房地产有没有泡沫？如果有，银行了解多少？
Is there a housing bubble?
And if there is... how exposed are the banks?

666
00:37:15,730 --> 00:37:18,140
咱们赶快行动，如果情况属实
Let's get on this quickly too,
because if he is right...

667
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:22,000
那有点钱的基金都会来找我们的麻烦
Every loser with a couple million bucks
in a fund is gonna be jumping on us.

668
00:37:22,610 --> 00:37:23,610
现在就出发！
Let's go!

669
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,830
摩根大通啊，这里可是摩根大通啊
J.P. Morgan-Chase, J.P. Morgan-Chase.

670
00:37:35,140 --> 00:37:38,940
查理•盖勒
别废话了
Charlie Geller
OK.. Don't!...Stop Saying J.P. Morgan-Chase!

671
00:37:39,060 --> 00:37:40,570
我觉得咱们能交好运
I got a good feeling about this

672
00:37:40,690 --> 00:37:43,460
杰米•希普利
就一个会面，别抱太大期望
Jamie Shipley
Just a meeting though, you know...It's just a meeting!

673
00:37:44,470 --> 00:37:46,410
会面天天都有…
People have meetings all the time...
You know!

674
00:37:46,530 --> 00:37:48,380
人们喝完咖啡，就去会面…
People drink their coffee,
they have a meeting...

675
00:37:48,500 --> 00:37:50,430

  • 棕地基金？ - 我们在这儿！
    Brownfield Funds?
  • Yes! yes!

676
00:37:50,710 --> 00:37:53,910
我叫克里斯，泰德交易团队的前台
Hello, Hey!
Chris... I 'm on Ted's Desk.

677
00:37:54,030 --> 00:37:57,570
我叫查理，查理•盖勒
我叫杰米，杰米•希普利
I'm Charlie, I'm Charlie Geller,
I'm Jamie, Jamie Shipley.. Hi!

678
00:37:57,690 --> 00:38:01,550
我们太想在你们的交易平台上接入了
We're so excited to get setup
on your trading platform!

679
00:38:01,670 --> 00:38:03,410
很好啊！先坐下聊一聊
Cool! Here, eh.. have a seat a second.

680
00:38:04,170 --> 00:38:05,200
好的
Alright!

681
00:38:06,420 --> 00:38:09,410
我…泰德让我…先和你们见面聊聊
So I... Ted did ask ehm..
to do us some meeting in front.

682
00:38:09,530 --> 00:38:12,270
可我一直找不到你们的宣传资料
but I eh... I couldn't find
any marketing material on you guys..

683
00:38:12,910 --> 00:38:15,840
那个…我们是刚从科罗拉多州博尔德搬过来
Oh... we just moved here from Boulder.

684
00:38:16,350 --> 00:38:18,150
我能看看你们的招募书吗？
Oh, can we see some of your offering documents?

685
00:38:18,410 --> 00:38:20,910
其实，棕地基金用的是…我们自己的钱
Well Brownfield has it own... money...

686
00:38:21,630 --> 00:38:23,240
我俩的存款…嗯
It's our money... Yeah.

687
00:38:23,590 --> 00:38:25,520
说说你们资金规模是多大？
Well can you tell us how much you manage?

688
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:28,790
好啊！我们现在做到3千万了…
Of course!
We're doing 30 million right now.... eh...

689
00:38:28,910 --> 00:38:32,750
可是我们是4年前开始的
当时只有11万的本钱
But we started four years ago,
with a hundred-ten thousand.

690
00:38:32,870 --> 00:38:34,330

  • 厉害啊！- 所以你看
    Wow!
    -So as you can see,

691
00:38:34,550 --> 00:38:37,840
我们的投资回报率相当厉害
that's pretty phenomenal returns.

692
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,410
我们想和摩根签署ISDA协议
We wanna get an
ISDA-agreement with J.P. Morgan,

693
00:38:40,530 --> 00:38:42,730
这样我们就能交易长线期权了
So we can deal in long-term options.

694
00:38:43,940 --> 00:38:45,760

  • 想法很好嘛！- 是啊
    -That's really cool!
    Yeah!

695
00:38:46,060 --> 00:38:47,260
ISDA协议（国际掉期及衍生产品协议）
ISDA Agreement

696
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:50,160
这个协议能够让投资者坐在“大亨”席位上
An agreement that lets an investor sit at the "big boy table"

697
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,500
阻止愚蠢的新手扰乱高水平的交易
and make high level trades not available to stupid amateurs.

698
00:38:52,700 --> 00:38:54,700
押注很大的交易员，如果没有ISDA
Trying to be a high stakes trader without an ISDA

699
00:38:54,900 --> 00:38:57,900
就像骑着羊驼，想要赢得超级印地赛车比赛冠军一样
is like trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.

700
00:38:57,910 --> 00:38:59,490
你们的想法很好！
That is so cool!

701
00:38:59,960 --> 00:39:00,910
谢谢！
Thank you!

702
00:39:01,030 --> 00:39:05,150
不过呢…你们没达到ISDA的资本准入门槛
But eh.. you guys are under
the capital requirements for an ISDA.

703
00:39:05,790 --> 00:39:06,810
差多少？
By how much?

704
00:39:07,270 --> 00:39:08,530
嗯…差了…
Er.. How much eh...

705
00:39:08,650 --> 00:39:11,100
十亿四千七百万
One billion four-hundred-seventy millions

706
00:39:11,220 --> 00:39:11,570
所以…
So...

707
00:39:12,580 --> 00:39:13,390
还差挺多
A lot!

708
00:39:15,620 --> 00:39:16,950
这让我们看起来挺不专业的，是吗
This makes us look bad doesn't it?

709
00:39:17,070 --> 00:39:20,060
我们连资金要求都不知道
That we didn't know
what the capital requirements were.

710
00:39:20,180 --> 00:39:21,170
怎么说呢
I..... eh..

711
00:39:21,740 --> 00:39:23,120
影响是不太积极
It's not great!

712
00:39:23,780 --> 00:39:24,490
不过呢
But, eh.....

713
00:39:24,900 --> 00:39:26,270
你们保持这样的利润率
Keep up those returns

714
00:39:26,390 --> 00:39:29,490
以后发达了，记得再给我们打电话
And give us a call
way down the line you know?

715
00:39:29,610 --> 00:39:30,310
好吗？
OK?

716
00:39:30,430 --> 00:39:32,080
好的，谢谢你克里斯！
OK, of course!
Thanks Chris!

717
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:33,890

  • 祝你们好运！- 谢谢！
    Have a good one guys!
    -Thank you Chris!

718
00:39:37,970 --> 00:39:39,020
操！
Shit!

719
00:39:40,750 --> 00:39:44,900
谁他妈会安排下午4点50谈正事儿
Who the fuck schedules
a meeting at 4:50 in the afternoon?

720
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:49,500
美国银行和贝尔斯登没回电话也就算了
Dude, B of A and Bear
didn't even return our calls

721
00:39:49,620 --> 00:39:53,240

  • 连美联银行这种大众货也不屌我们！
  • 是啊
    and even fucking Wachovia blew us off!
  • I know man!

722
00:39:53,510 --> 00:39:57,850
这是其他一样在大厅里就被拍死的家伙的招股书
Here's the prospectuses of all the other losers
who didn't make it past the lobby.

723
00:39:58,140 --> 00:39:59,330
我真不想搞这个了…
I don't think i can do this anymore..

724
00:39:59,450 --> 00:40:02,230
伙计，我还年轻，还能干点正事儿！
Yo, I'm young yet,
i can still do something with my life!

725
00:40:02,590 --> 00:40:05,110
我想回科罗拉多老家
连大麻都比这边的飘
I miss Colorado anyway.
The weed's better!

726
00:40:05,590 --> 00:40:07,820
先生们…请离开大厅
Gentleman... i need you to leave!

727
00:40:07,940 --> 00:40:09,320
好，我们马上走，咱们走
Yep, Yeah we're going, Let's go!

728
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:10,910
看这个！看看这个！
Look at this, Look at this!

729
00:40:11,350 --> 00:40:14,740
这人说房地产市场就是一个大泡沫！
this guy says that the
housing market is a giant bubble!

730
00:40:17,420 --> 00:40:19,480
这部分情节和真实情况有些出入
OK, so this part isn't totally accurate.

731
00:40:19,750 --> 00:40:23,840
我俩不是在大厅发现了杰瑞德的推销资料
Now, we didn't find Jared Vennett's housing bubble pitch in a lobby of a bank that rejected us.

732
00:40:24,060 --> 00:40:27,430
实际情况是，一个朋友告诉了查理这件事
Truth is... ehm..
A friend had told Charlie about it

733
00:40:27,550 --> 00:40:29,740
我是从金融史学家Jim Grant的个人期刊上读到的
And I read about it,
in Grant¡¯s Interest Rate Observer

734
00:40:29,860 --> 00:40:30,930
不敢相信！
This is crazy!

735
00:40:31,330 --> 00:40:34,240
简直像胡说的东西
This is..... crazy stuff!

736
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,300
这儿说房贷证券的信用违约互换
Here, they're saying that
there's 10-to-1 returns,

737
00:40:36,700 --> 00:40:39,680
是10倍的收益比
on Credit Default Swaps
for mortgage backed securities

738
00:40:40,430 --> 00:40:43,000
现在房地产市场马上就要崩溃了
and the whole housing market
is about to collapse.

739
00:40:43,610 --> 00:40:48,270
对他俩来说，听到这消息简直像猫闻到了腥味一样
For Jamie and Charlie, the housing market
doomsday prediction was music to their ears!

740
00:40:48,470 --> 00:40:50,470
bgm 《Lithium》by Polyphonic Spree
bgm: Lithium by Polyphonic Spree

741
00:40:55,530 --> 00:40:57,860
他俩在杰米家的车库创业起家
They had started working out of Jamie's garage,

742
00:40:57,980 --> 00:41:02,170
资金是杰米在东海岸倒卖帆船攒下来的11万
with a 110 thousand Jamie had saved
taking sailboats up and down the east-coast.

743
00:41:03,750 --> 00:41:05,660
我们的投资策略很简单
Our investment-strategy was simple.

744
00:41:05,780 --> 00:41:10,060
没人愿意听到坏消息
所以人们往往低估坏事发生的概率
People hate to think about bad things happening
so they always underestimate their likelihood.

745
00:41:10,180 --> 00:41:12,240
简单又高明的策略
Their strategy simple and brilliant.

746
00:41:13,220 --> 00:41:14,290
他说的对！
What he said!

747
00:41:14,410 --> 00:41:19,280
他俩发现，市场会低价贩卖
认为不可能发生的事情的期权
Jamie and Charlie found: Markets will sell options very cheaply on things they think will never happen.

748
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:22,300
这样损失会很小，而一旦得利…
So, when they were wrong, they were wrong small.
But when they were right.......

749
00:41:22,420 --> 00:41:24,490

  • 就能赚很多！ -赚翻了！
    They were right big!
  • Boooooom!

750
00:41:24,690 --> 00:41:26,690
期权交易的是“买卖权利”，不需要买卖实物
options

751
00:41:26,890 --> 00:41:28,890
所以需要的资金量小，可以做空
options

752
00:41:29,750 --> 00:41:33,420
（棕地基金）
几年间他们就把11万做到了3千万
BROWNFIELD FUND
Within a few years they had turned a 110 grand into 30 million

753
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:37,940
是时候去纽约了…不过进展并不顺利
Then it was time to go to New York City,
And so far..... It wasn't going very well

754
00:41:38,060 --> 00:41:39,510
要是这个买卖可以做呢？
So what if it does seem interesting?

755
00:41:39,630 --> 00:41:41,730
不行，没有银行会和我们签ISDA协议
Nope, no bank will give us our ISDA.

756
00:41:41,850 --> 00:41:43,540
咱们没风掀不起浪啊…
We're dead in the water...

757
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,570
这类交易完全搞不起
These kind of trades are
totally out of the question!

758
00:41:47,690 --> 00:41:49,140
咱们必须打电话给本
-We gotta call Ben!

759
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:53,050
打给他！
Call Ben!

760
00:41:53,770 --> 00:41:56,650
本•瑞克是退下来的交易员
以前在摩根新加坡分行
Ben Ricker was a former trader
in Singapore for Chase.

761
00:41:56,770 --> 00:41:58,600
深深厌恶这一行就金盆洗手了
Quit the whole game in disgust!

762
00:41:58,720 --> 00:42:01,310
当年在科罗拉多州，本正好是杰米的邻居
He just happened to be Jamie's
neighbor when they were in Colorado

763
00:42:01,430 --> 00:42:03,140
因为本在遛狗，两人才认识
They met, walking dogs....

764
00:42:03,420 --> 00:42:04,740
不过本的世界观更阴暗
But Ben was dark...

765
00:42:04,990 --> 00:42:06,820
不只认为金融系统会崩溃
He didn't just think
the whole system would fail

766
00:42:07,050 --> 00:42:08,860
连全世界都会迟早毁灭
He thought the whole world
was going down!

767
00:42:08,980 --> 00:42:11,370
本•瑞克
沙拉…真好吃！
Ben Ricket
This salad's .... Oh.. hmmm good!

768
00:42:11,490 --> 00:42:14,040
当然了，这些都是我花园里新鲜采摘的
You know, every one of these
vegetables is fresh from my garden

769
00:42:16,140 --> 00:42:17,340
你们应该开一个自己的花园
You guys should start your own garden!

770
00:42:17,460 --> 00:42:20,250
别用石油化工的东西污染土壤
What you gotta do is
get your soil off petrol chemicals,

771
00:42:20,830 --> 00:42:24,860
用木屑和尿来改良土壤，增加单硝酸酯
Use wood-ash and urine, help destroy the soil, creates mononitrate,

772
00:42:24,980 --> 00:42:26,770
以后种子会成为硬通货！
Seeds are gonna be the new currency!

773
00:42:26,890 --> 00:42:31,570
不是孟山都公司的基因改造种子
我说的是原生态的健康种子
And not those Frankenseeds from Monsanto,
I'm talking about good healthy organic seeds.

774
00:42:31,690 --> 00:42:34,140

  • 自己种菜，自给自足
  • 这有点精神过敏了吧！
    Make yourself a garden, learn to live off the land!
  • A fucking lunatic!

775
00:42:34,260 --> 00:42:36,280
本有大银行的实际经验
Ben had real experience in a big bank,

776
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:40,050
杰米和查理连曼哈顿的银行厕所都没进过
Jamie and Charlie, never even been
in a Manhattan bank bathroom!

777
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:43,540
但本明确说过金盆洗手，绝不再碰金融
But Ben was done with the banking world,
he was very clear!

778
00:42:43,660 --> 00:42:45,420

  • 这点你想到了吗？
  • 咱们还是算清楚吧
    Do you realize that?
    -Alright, let's crunch some numbers,

779
00:42:45,540 --> 00:42:47,930

  • 然后再打电话给本
  • 我不想算来算去
    Then maybe we'll talk about calling Ben
  • I don't wanna crunch the numbers,

780
00:42:48,050 --> 00:42:50,280

  • 每次咱们都是算了再决定的
  • 你们两个
    When haven't we crunched the numbers?
    -Seriously guys!

781
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:53,120

  • 赶快离开
  • 好的，麻烦您了
    -I need you out of here
    Of course, Yes Mam!

782
00:42:53,240 --> 00:42:55,490

  • 马上就走
  • 我们马上走
    One second!
    -We're going, we're going!

783
00:42:56,970 --> 00:42:59,910
天哪，真是自找麻烦！这调研绝对是浪费时间
Oh god, i hate this!
This is a total waste of time!

784
00:43:00,030 --> 00:43:01,760
别担心了，想开点
Come on!
Would you relax!

785
00:43:02,810 --> 00:43:06,110
城外45分钟车程听说有新房
there's a housing develpment
about forty-five minutes outside of town.

786
00:43:06,230 --> 00:43:07,860
我们要不就先去那里看看
We may as well to check that out first.

787
00:43:07,980 --> 00:43:10,090
希望一路上有古巴口味的餐馆
I hope there's some
Cuban restaurants on the way there,

788
00:43:10,210 --> 00:43:12,640
听说在迈阿密，古巴食品是一绝
because i heard the
Cuban food is amazing in Miami.

789
00:43:12,830 --> 00:43:15,470
你这么开心简直幸灾乐祸
Please don't be Chipper
in the face of me being miserable!

790
00:43:15,590 --> 00:43:17,150
我恨你！
It really makes me hate you!

791
00:43:17,270 --> 00:43:20,220
我想吃好的，还惹着你了
How is wanting to eat good food,
being Chipper?

792
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:23,140
你好？
Hello?

793
00:43:23,790 --> 00:43:25,500
你好？
Hello?

794
00:43:52,850 --> 00:43:54,200
有事吗？你们想干嘛
What's up man?
What do you want?

795
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,800
我们正在调查已经90天断供房贷的房主
Hello, I'm surveying mortgage owners
who are over 90 days delinquent

796
00:43:58,120 --> 00:43:59,840
我找哈维•汉姆西
I'm looking for a Harvey Humpsy

797
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:01,840
你找我房东的狗干嘛
You want my landlord's dog?

798
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:06,480
你房东用狗的名字填了房贷申请表？
Your landlord filled out his
mortgage application using his dogs name?

799
00:44:08,100 --> 00:44:08,800
看来是咯！
I guess so!

800
00:44:09,460 --> 00:44:11,900
等等，这混蛋没有再交房贷吗？
Wait, has that asshole not been
paying his mortgage?

801
00:44:11,900 --> 00:44:13,380
我可是一直在交房租啊！
Coz, I've been paying my rent!

802
00:44:13,380 --> 00:44:15,400
他是有90天没还房贷了
Well, yeah he is over 90 days delinquent

803
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:16,820
说真的
Seriously man!

804
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:18,480
我是不是要搬家了？
Am i gonna have to leave?

805
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:23,920
我小孩才刚安排好在这儿上学
My kids just got setup in this school man!

806
00:44:26,980 --> 00:44:29,540
你好啊
Hey.... How are ya?

807
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:31,600
你得直接问问你的房东了
Ehm.. you should talk to
your landlord about that

808
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,200
我这里没有什么能帮到你的了
I'm sorry i don't have anymore information,
but you ehm....

809
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:36,000
祝你们好运！
You have a great day!

810
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:43,520
真的…不会真的有事儿吧？
Seriously... Is everything gonna be ok?

811
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,120
你得问…你得问房东！
You should call...
You should call him!

812
00:44:47,020 --> 00:44:47,820
打电话给他！
You should give him a call!

813
00:44:48,240 --> 00:44:49,820
错不在我身上！我可是一直在交房租！
It's not my fault dude!
I've been paying!

814
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:54,720
你好！
Hello!

815
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:00,660
好像有人走得很急
I think somebody just left

816
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:03,860
就搬走了电视
All they took was the TV.

817
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:05,600
这不对劲！
It's weird!

818
00:45:06,620 --> 00:45:08,580
连厨房台面都没打扫
They didn't even clean up the counter

819
00:45:13,780 --> 00:45:14,780
逾期通知
PAST DUE NOTICE

820
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:17,500
总欠款5789
抱歉啦！
Total Amount Due 5789. Sorry!

821
00:45:17,620 --> 00:45:18,680
老天爷
Oh, god!

822
00:45:30,020 --> 00:45:31,460
简直像核污染的切尔诺贝利
It's like Chernobyl!

823
00:45:32,180 --> 00:45:34,880
这大概有100间房子，也就4个人在住
It's like a hundred houses,
it can't be four people living here.

824
00:45:37,340 --> 00:45:39,380

  • 我操！- 靠！
    No, fuck that!
    -Shit!

825
00:45:40,580 --> 00:45:42,580
bgm: 《Barbarito Torres》by Lagrimas Negras
bgm: Barbarito Torres by Lagrimas Negras

826
00:45:54,660 --> 00:45:56,460
他在里面呆了7个小时了
He's been there for seven hours

827
00:45:46,660 --> 00:45:48,660
bgm: 《Master of Puppets》by Metallica
bgm: MASTER OF PUPPETS by METALLICA

828
00:45:48,860 --> 00:45:53,560
奇幻小说《沙娜拉的后裔》
后裔Scion即为基金名字赛恩
The Scions of Shannars

829
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:56,460
下跌9.3% 赛恩净值
-9.3% SCION VALUE

830
00:45:56,540 --> 00:45:58,960

  • 他在看什么？
  • 我听说他崩溃了
    What is he looking at?
    -I heard he had a breakdown!

831
00:45:59,140 --> 00:46:01,200
已经破罐子破摔了
He¡¯s letting the fund tank

832
00:46:03,260 --> 00:46:04,580
贝利博士办公室
Dr. Burry's office

833
00:46:04,860 --> 00:46:07,820
他还是希望你发邮件给他。稍等
No, he actually prefers that you e-mail him.
Excuse me!

834
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:14,300
你好 劳伦斯！
Hey Lawrence!

835
00:46:16,720 --> 00:46:22,380
我们对你预测宏观经济趋势的能力没有信心
We have no confidence in your ability
to identify macro-economic trends.

836
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,420
你坐飞机来就为了说这个？
You flew here to tell me that?
Why?

837
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:29,720
每个…个…人都能看出来房地产有泡沫
Every, E- E- Anyone
can see there's a real-estate bubble

838
00:46:30,380 --> 00:46:33,520
没人能看出有泡沫，你的想法才是泡沫
Actually no-one can see a bubble,
that's what makes it a bubble

839
00:46:33,660 --> 00:46:35,660
这么说太蠢了
That's dumb, Lawrence.

840
00:46:35,980 --> 00:46:37,440
总有线索可以找啊！
There are always markers!

841
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:39,680
房贷欺诈
Mortgage fraud

842
00:46:40,720 --> 00:46:45,540
2000年以后翻了5倍，平均收入却没涨
Quintupled since 2000 and the
average take-home pay is flat, but ...

843
00:46:45,700 --> 00:46:49,340
房价暴涨，意味着房子不再用来住
而是投资品
Home-prices are soaring, that means
the homes are dead,not assets

844
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,040
那你这个硅谷来的麦克
So Mike Burry of San Jose,
a guy who....

845
00:46:52,380 --> 00:46:55,620
在连锁理发店理发，不穿鞋
gets his haircut at Supercuts,
and doesn't wear shoes,

846
00:46:55,940 --> 00:46:58,500
你就比格林斯潘和财政部长懂得多？
knows more than Alan Greenspan and Hank Paulson....

847
00:47:00,460 --> 00:47:03,260
我虽然没和财政部长聊过，不过我确实更懂
I haven't talked to Hank,
but yes he does.

848
00:47:04,580 --> 00:47:08,700
你还挺萌啊！你这是在讽刺自己吗
That's cute, that's cute!
Are you being sarcastic with us Mike?

849
00:47:11,740 --> 00:47:15,440
劳伦斯…我这人不懂什么叫讽刺
Lawrence....
I don't know how to be sarcastic!

850
00:47:16,500 --> 00:47:17,740
我也不会开玩笑
I don't know how to be funny

851
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:21,340
我不知道礼尚往来
I don't know how to ...
work people..

852
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:24,820
可我对数据是真的懂！
I just know how to read numbers!

853
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:27,380
你现在做空多少了？
How big is your short position right now?

854
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:28,980
嗯…
Eh....

855
00:47:29,420 --> 00:47:31,200
13亿
1.3 billion

856
00:47:31,460 --> 00:47:32,480
保费交多少？
And the premiums?

857
00:47:32,660 --> 00:47:35,400
我们…大概…交…
eh, we pay ... eh... roughly...

858
00:47:35,460 --> 00:47:37,060
8千万到9千万
80 to 90 million

859
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,980
每年交，有点多，毕竟咱们开了先例
Each year, which is surprising,
because i was the first to do this trade

860
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:45,180
等着吧，肯定能赚钱！
我最先趟的道，但方向是对的！
Watch, It will pay!
I may have been early, but I'm not wrong!

861
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:48,200
你就会吹！你就会吹！
It's the same thing!
It's the same thing Mike!

862
00:47:48,460 --> 00:47:52,420
你管理的基金有多少？5亿5千5百万？
You're managing a fund of what?
555 million?

863
00:47:53,240 --> 00:47:56,600
六年内，交保费就赔光了
In six years,
it will all be gone!

864
00:47:57,520 --> 00:47:58,460
单单这一项
On one bet

865
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:02,380
07年第二季度可调利率就发威了
The second quarter of '07
is when the adjustable rates kick in!

866
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:04,180
肯定会出现大批断供
The defaults will skyrocket!

867
00:48:04,740 --> 00:48:05,680
也就你这么想！
Says you!

868
00:48:05,780 --> 00:48:09,800
在合约到期前，基金里有多少钱可以撤回？
就算半年之内吧
How much is eligible for withdrawal before they're due?
Say in the next two quarters.

869
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:12,580
如果你的投资人恐慌了的话
If your investors panic

870
00:48:16,580 --> 00:48:18,360
3亿零2百万
302

871
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:20,760
不妙啊，麦克
My god Mike!

872
00:48:25,820 --> 00:48:28,500
不会有人往外取钱的，那样损人不利己
No-one will pull out,
that would be suicide man

873
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:32,600
今年虽然下跌了17%，但相信我就行了
而且他们一直相信我
Down 17 percent for the year,
but if they trust me, and they trust me!

874
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:35,360
没人相信你！
No-one trusts you!

875
00:48:35,460 --> 00:48:38,380

  • 没人！ - 我写了几封信给投资人了
    No-one!
    -I've sent several e-mails to my investors

876
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:39,840
让他们了解情况
Letting them know that the.. the....

877
00:48:41,980 --> 00:48:45,380
07年的第二季度，我们房贷投资就能盈利
It's the second quarter of '07
is when our housing position shows returns

878
00:48:47,500 --> 00:48:49,680
我说得很清楚了！
and ehm...
I've been very clear!

879
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:52,720
你就等着大家撤资吧
People will withdraw their money!

880
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:57,040
为啥？谁会这么傻？
Why? You'd have to be so stupid!

881
00:48:57,220 --> 00:49:00,720
如果我们基金的资本减少过多
If, if if the funds capital drops too much....

882
00:49:00,940 --> 00:49:04,240
那么互换合同就会自动失效
then the swaps contracts are voided

883
00:49:04,340 --> 00:49:05,680
然后银行…
and then the banks....

884
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,640
就会拿走所有钱，一个子儿都不剩
get to keep all of it, all of it!

885
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:11,140
合同会自动失效？
The contracts are voided?

886
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:13,580
合同会自动失效？
The contracts are voided!?!

887
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:16,260
我操！
Holy shit!

888
00:49:16,820 --> 00:49:18,100
你这臭不要脸的！
O, motherfucker!

889
00:49:18,340 --> 00:49:19,200
麦克
Michael....

890
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:21,540
把我的钱还我
Give me my money back.

891
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:28,540
麦克，听见了吗？我要退回我的钱！
Michael, do you hear me?
I want my money back!

892
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:32,960
你他妈的把我的钱给我！
Give me my fucking money back!

893
00:49:34,700 --> 00:49:35,820
你这小兔崽子
You motherfucker!

894
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:40,360
房产市场正处在一个小不丁点的低谷里
The market is in an itsy-bitsy
little gully right now

895
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:44,380
好像大伙说“玩得太嗨了，咱们稍微缓缓神”
Like everybody said:
"OK, that was crazy, let's just all calm down!"

896
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:50,040
那房子刚建成的时候，我35万卖了出去
I sold that house for 350,
the year it was built.

897
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:55,200
两年以后，就值48万，然后58万5
这是一年半以前的价格
two years later... 480, then 585,
maybe eighteen months ago.

898
00:49:55,700 --> 00:49:58,660
这对夫妻在去年花65万买了下来
This couple bought it for 650 last year!

899
00:49:59,060 --> 00:50:01,700
倒霉碰上房价跌了，只能按原价卖呗
He'd let it go for that....high jump

900
00:50:03,900 --> 00:50:05,660
他肯定觉得不值，不过会放手的
It will break his heart,
but he'll let it go

901
00:50:05,780 --> 00:50:06,900
那他为什么要卖房？
Why is he selling?

902
00:50:07,460 --> 00:50:09,260
夫妻俩现在都没工作
Neither one is working right now

903
00:50:10,300 --> 00:50:12,480
马琳，你说他们急于出手是吧？
Marlene, you'd say they're
motivated, right?

904
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:15,860
和这片的人积极性差不多吧
As motivated as one can be
in this neighborhood.

905
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:19,060
左边这房子，才是真正急于出手
This house on the left,
I'd say they're properly motivated.

906
00:50:19,100 --> 00:50:20,860
我说，急于出手的也太多了点
Wow!
A lot of people seem very motivated.

907
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:24,820
房价小触底嘛，大伙神经过敏
It's just a gully that's all.
Just nerves

908
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:27,140
那…我们把车停到哪儿
So... where do we stand?

909
00:50:28,260 --> 00:50:29,940
我得和我老婆商量一下
I need to talk to my wife

910
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:32,320
再等，过了这村就没这店了！
ehm..
This market won't last!

911
00:50:32,500 --> 00:50:36,260
其实，能给我介绍个房贷经纪人吗？
你推荐的，不错的
Actually, can i talk to a mortgage broker?
Anybody you recommend? Anybody you like?

912
00:50:36,380 --> 00:50:38,120
有啊，是有个绝佳人选
Yes, yes,
There's someone, absolutely!

913
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:41,020
这小妞肯定喜欢我啊
我帮她赚钱赚翻了
Yeah, bitch better like me,
sent her ass to Cabo!

914
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,600
连摩根士丹利都等着要我们了？
So is Morgan Stanley recruiting us?
Is that..

915
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,520
不是…银行拥有我们的对冲基金
No, eh no.
The bank owns our hedge-fund

916
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:52,400
但我们其实不归银行管
我们主要投资金融服务公司
We're not really a part of it,
we invest in financial service companies.

917
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,080
我们过来是想了解这里房贷行业的情况
We're trying to understand the residential mortgage business.

918
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:57,320
你每个月能办多少笔贷款
How many loans do you write each month?

919
00:50:58,160 --> 00:50:59,600
没留意过，大概60笔吧
I don't know, about 60.

920
00:50:59,740 --> 00:51:00,960
4年前呢？
What was it four years ago?

921
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,000
10笔…15笔的样子
Ten.... but maybe fifteen.

922
00:51:05,100 --> 00:51:07,160
以前我是酒吧招待，现在我连船都有了
I was a bartender,
now i own a boat!

923
00:51:08,300 --> 00:51:11,460
这里面有多少是可调利率的房贷？
（前几年低利率，然后调高）
So, how many of these are eh..
adjustable rate mortgages?

924
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:12,620
嗯，绝大多数
Well, most.

925
00:51:13,580 --> 00:51:15,440
是，我觉得有90%左右
Yeah, I'd say about ninety percent

926
00:51:15,760 --> 00:51:18,660
近几年这种房贷提成飙上天了
The bonuses on those
skyrocketed a few years ago

927
00:51:18,820 --> 00:51:20,180
我们全靠这个赚钱
Adjustables are bread and honey

928
00:51:20,260 --> 00:51:22,480
那房贷申请有被拒的时候吗
So, do applicants ever get rejected?

929
00:51:27,020 --> 00:51:28,040
怎么可能
Seriously?

930
00:51:29,020 --> 00:51:30,940
要是他们被拒，我就不称职了
Look if they get rejected
I suck at my job!

931
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:32,680
他们没钱也能贷到款？
Even if they have no money?

932
00:51:32,860 --> 00:51:35,740
我们公司有一种“忍者贷款”
Well, my firm offers a NINJA loan.

933
00:51:36,020 --> 00:51:40,780
不需要收入和职业证明，收入一栏空着都可以
No Income No Job Application,
I just leave the income-section blank if i want.

934
00:51:40,940 --> 00:51:41,920
公司不在乎
Corporate doesn't care.

935
00:51:42,260 --> 00:51:45,560

  • 大伙想要房，公司顺应民意呗
  • 你当然愿意
  • These people just want homes, and they go with the flow.
  • Good for you.

936
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:47,820
你们公司都不查验的吗
Your companies don't verify?

937
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:53,440
我星期五下午签了房贷合同
If I write a loan on Friday afternoon,

938
00:51:54,380 --> 00:51:56,020
大银行周一中午就会买走
Big bank is gonna buy it by Monday lunch.

939
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:59,040
见怪不怪！我们也一样
Deal!
Same here!

940
00:51:59,940 --> 00:52:02,200

  • 你们能等会吗？ - 行啊
    Could you hold on a second?
    -Yeah

941
00:52:08,380 --> 00:52:10,840
我搞不明白，为啥他们这么坦白
I don't get it...
Why are they confessing?

942
00:52:11,240 --> 00:52:14,620
他们不是在坦白…他们这是在吹牛
They're not confessing....
They're bragging!

943
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:27,580
贷款的人真的知道这种贷款的风险吗？
Do people have any idea
what they are buying?

944
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:30,960
我一般找移民
I focus on immigrants!

945
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:34,200
等他们还不起房贷睡大街了…
你让他们签什么都愿意
Once they find out they're getting homeless..
They'll sign where you tell em to sign.

946
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:36,740
不会问问题，不理解利率是什么东西
They don't ask questions,
don't understand the rates.

947
00:52:38,100 --> 00:52:39,600
你也找移民下手吗？
And you targeting on immigrants too?

948
00:52:40,100 --> 00:52:42,660
移民的信用分对他来说还太好
Their credit isn't actually bad enough for him.

949
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:45,820
我不跟钱过不去
Look I'm a yield guy

950
00:52:48,700 --> 00:52:51,220
一笔固定利率的良性房贷，我只赚两千
I make two thousand on a fixed rate prime

951
00:52:52,220 --> 00:52:55,600
可做一笔可调利率的次级贷，我能赚一万
But i CAN make ten thousand on
a sub-prime adjustable

952
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:58,360
说真的，没有脱衣舞女郎的帮忙
我也开不上宝马7系
Trust me, I'm not driving that 7-series without strippers

953
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:01,900
她们信用评分都不行，可是都超级有钱
No-one on the pole has good credit,
and they're all cash-rich.

954
00:53:02,100 --> 00:53:04,100
我好像听沃伦•巴菲特说过类似的话
I think I read Warren Buffett said something like that.

955
00:53:06,300 --> 00:53:07,380
啥？巴菲特是谁？
What? Who's Warren Buffett?

956
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:11,460
你说的脱衣舞女郎…就是露肉的那种？
OK, So, strippers....
like exotic dancers...

957
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:13,040
光屁股的
Nude, you know

958
00:53:13,260 --> 00:53:13,920
露着胸的
Topless..

959
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:15,700

  • 脱衣舞女郎 - 对
    Strippers?
    -Yeah, Hmmmm.

960
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:21,440

  • 能帮我们介绍个吗？ - 当然行
    Can you introduce us?
    Yes!

961
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:22,780
没问题！
Yes!

962
00:53:25,240 --> 00:53:28,540
我一直选还贷方式多的可调房贷
我毕竟是自由职业者
I always get option-pay adjustable.
I'm a private contractor.

963
00:53:28,740 --> 00:53:29,900
听不清，抱歉！
Can't hear you, I'm sorry!

964
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:34,260
我一直选还贷方式多的那种可调房贷
我自己干，需要点灵活性
I always get option to pay adjustable,
I'm a private contractor, i need the flexibility.

965
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:36,720
你怎么跟房贷公司说你的职业
And you tell the mortgage company what you do?

966
00:53:36,780 --> 00:53:38,220
我写的是：治疗师
I write: Therapist

967
00:53:38,820 --> 00:53:40,600

  • 你可以摸我！
  • 一直？
    You can touch me!
    -Always?

968
00:53:41,100 --> 00:53:42,320
那只能在VIP房间
Only in V.I.P.

969
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:44,840
不不不，误会了
你说你一直选可调利息房贷
No, no, no you say
you always do adjustables

970
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:46,860
你一套房子不止一笔贷款吗？
And you have more than
one loan on a property?

971
00:53:46,900 --> 00:53:48,140
大伙都这样
Everybody does!

972
00:53:48,260 --> 00:53:50,020

  • 至少我们这儿这样
  • 我没听明白
    At least down here
    -I'm sorry what?

973
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,900
每个人都这样！至少我们这儿是！
Everybody does!
At least down here

974
00:53:52,940 --> 00:53:54,800
这样首付只要5%
That way you'll only put down like five percent

975
00:53:54,940 --> 00:53:57,040
可房价现在不涨了，对吧？
Well prices have leveled off though, right?

976
00:53:57,100 --> 00:53:58,700
是啊，暂时不涨
Yeah, it's a gully

977
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:02,280
你能不能别晃来晃去的？我照样付你钱
Would you mind not moving anymore?
I'll still pay you!

978
00:54:06,480 --> 00:54:09,080
抱歉…有人盯着
Sorry...
We're not alone.

979
00:54:09,220 --> 00:54:11,960
你听我说…如果房价不涨
OK, look..
If home-prices don't go up,

980
00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:14,120
你就不能重新贷款了
You are not going to be able to refinance

981
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:15,760
你就陷到房贷里脱不开身
And you're going to be stuck paying

982
00:54:16,040 --> 00:54:20,020
等利率优惠期过了，月供涨到多少是多少
whatever your monthly payment is once it jumps up,
whenever your teaser rate expires

983
00:54:20,140 --> 00:54:23,080
加上逾期的利滚利，可能涨到200%到300%
Your monthly's could go up
two- to three hundred percent!

984
00:54:23,180 --> 00:54:24,980
詹姆斯说我总可以重新贷款的！
James says i can always refinance!

985
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:27,120
那…他…就是个骗子
Well... He's ... A liar.

986
00:54:27,300 --> 00:54:30,420
至少对这种情况，他很可能是错的
Actually in this particular case,
James probably is wrong.

987
00:54:30,500 --> 00:54:32,440
200%？
Two-hundred percent?

988
00:54:33,020 --> 00:54:33,980
我所有房贷的？
On all my loans?

989
00:54:34,060 --> 00:54:37,820
你什么意思？不就是一套房两笔贷款吗
What do you mean?
We're talking about two loans on one house right?

990
00:54:38,300 --> 00:54:40,200
我有5套房
I have five houses

991
00:54:40,460 --> 00:54:41,580
外加一套公寓房
And a condo..

992
00:54:44,180 --> 00:54:45,040
有泡沫！
Hey, there's a bubble!

993
00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:46,740
你怎么知道的？
How do you know?

994
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:48,180
相信我，打电话给杰瑞德
Trust me. Call Vennett,

995
00:54:48,260 --> 00:54:50,340
买上5千万房贷证券的信用违约互换
Buy 50 million in swaps on the MBS

996
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:53,060
买哪个？Garabaldi 4，3B评级！
What do we got? Garabaldi IV, Triple B!

997
00:54:53,580 --> 00:54:54,340
马克，你确定吗？
Mark, are you sure?

998
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:56,940
确定！这泡沫太扯淡了！
Yeah, yeah! It's time to call bullshit!

999
00:54:57,020 --> 00:54:57,960
哪些有泡沫？
Bullshit on what?

1000
00:54:58,060 --> 00:55:00,000
这儿他妈的全都是泡沫！
Every fucking thing!

1001
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:05,600
重新贷款:房价上涨,借房贷的人通过重新贷款
可获得最新的更低利息房贷，代价是延迟还清
explain refinance

1002
00:55:05,700 --> 00:55:10,800
银行可以把房贷当作"未来收款权"卖给投资人
所以银行有动力重新贷款，这样可以当新的再卖一次
explain refinance

1003
00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:16,000
银行的分期还贷计划，一般前期是优先还利息
所以重新贷款后，原放贷银行并不吃亏
explain refinance

1004
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:21,200
而房价下跌时,银行无法卖出房贷给投资人
自己承担风险,就不再愿重新贷款了
explain refinance

1005
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:29,240
是美国最暴走的对冲基金吗？
Is this America's angriest hedge-fund?

1006
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:31,820
听好了，我还有最后一个问题问你
Hi listen, I got one last question for you

1007
00:55:32,620 --> 00:55:33,820
你想怎么蹂躏我们？
How are you fucking us?

1008
00:55:36,060 --> 00:55:37,500
何必说的这么露骨呢…文尼
There's a nice way to say that Vinnie...

1009
00:55:37,700 --> 00:55:38,700
我没开玩笑
I'm serious

1010
00:55:39,480 --> 00:55:42,280
我们会买你的互换
但前提是你说清楚打算怎么蹂躏我们
We'll buy your swaps,
but only if you say how you're fucking us.

1011
00:55:42,720 --> 00:55:44,900
我不想蹂躏你，文尼，我想要亲吻你
I'm not fucking you Vinnie,
I'm kissing you

1012
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:48,100
看着你的双眼，让你爽
I'm looking deep into your eyes
as i make love to you Vinnie.

1013
00:55:48,220 --> 00:55:51,280
我正和盘托出本世纪最好的买卖给你
I'm handing you the deal
of the century on a fucking platter!

1014
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:52,500
我能得到什么好处？
What do I get out of it?

1015
00:55:52,820 --> 00:55:56,360
这还不简单…我之前做的证券每月赔进去2千万
Easy..I got a 20 million a month negative carry

1016
00:55:56,460 --> 00:55:59,780
老板早就想要了我的命，认为我神经不正常了
I got bosses trying to pull the plug,
because they're thinking I'm out of my fucking mind

1017
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:01,060
明白吗？
Alright?

1018
00:56:01,300 --> 00:56:04,680
我们做成了这笔买卖，我之前的问题都不是事儿
We make this trade,
those problems aren't so big anymore

1019
00:56:05,220 --> 00:56:07,380
当然了…互换是黑市
And sure... Swaps are a dark market so...

1020
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:10,140
怎么定价我说了算
I set the price, whatever price i want.

1021
00:56:10,300 --> 00:56:13,280
等你收回投资的时候，我肯定会让你大出血
And when you come for the payday,
I'm gonna rip your eyes out

1022
00:56:13,460 --> 00:56:15,040
从你那里大赚一笔
I'm gonna make a fortune

1023
00:56:15,180 --> 00:56:16,960
但好消息是，你也不会在乎的
But the good news is Vinnie,
you're not gonna care

1024
00:56:17,100 --> 00:56:19,060
因为你赚的钱太多，你都没空管我
Cause you're going to make so much fucking money!

1025
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:20,200
这就是我能得的好处
That's what I get out of it

1026
00:56:20,740 --> 00:56:21,760
想知道你能得到什么吗
Wanna know what you get out of it?

1027
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:24,720
你现在先拿到冰淇淋，热巧克力
香蕉和坚果配料
You get the ice-cream, the hot-fudge,
the banana and the nuts!

1028
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:27,000
我现在能拿到装饰糖粒
Right now I get the sprinkles

1029
00:56:27,060 --> 00:56:28,520
如果这事儿最终能成
And yeah.... if this goes through...

1030
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:30,340
我能吃到顶上的樱桃
I get the cherry.

1031
00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:32,440
但你能吃到圣代冰激凌
But you get the sundae Vinnie

1032
00:56:32,500 --> 00:56:34,600
除了樱桃，剩下的全是你的！
You get the sundae!

1033
00:56:36,500 --> 00:56:37,480
行，我信你
Alright, I'll buy that.

1034
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:39,080
谢谢你解释
Thank you!

1035
00:56:39,540 --> 00:56:40,780
那你拿个主意
So what do you say?

1036
00:56:41,740 --> 00:56:43,160
想让我帮你坐庄吗？
Want me to make you a market?

1037
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:45,020
我们买5千万
We'll take 50 million

1038
00:56:45,380 --> 00:56:47,000
Garabaldi 4，3B评级
Garabaldi-4 Triple-B

1039
00:56:48,860 --> 00:56:50,920
准备好签字笔吧，我来准备好文书
Sharpen your pencils,
I'll get the paperwork ready

1040
00:56:53,140 --> 00:56:54,800
我就操了
Aahhh... Fuck you too!

1041
00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:58,220
好！
YES!

1042
00:57:00,660 --> 00:57:01,800
这就对了！
that's right!

1043
00:57:01,900 --> 00:57:03,500
2006年5月
2006 May

1044
00:57:05,340 --> 00:57:09,260
他电话号码太多，我老忘了
He has so many numbers, and i always forget,

1045
00:57:09,780 --> 00:57:12,480

  • 应该打哪个电话，他明确和我说过
  • 就先选第一个吧
    Which one he prefers, cause he's very specific!
    -Just pick the first one

1046
00:57:12,660 --> 00:57:15,100

  • 不知道对不对
  • 试试吧
    I don't know if it's the first one
    -Just try it!

1047
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:16,140
好吧
OK

1048
00:57:16,340 --> 00:57:20,840
2002美国司法部长自己创作
并当众演唱的爱国歌曲《让雄鹰高飞》
bgm Let the Eagle Soar by John Ashcroft

1049
00:57:20,940 --> 00:57:26,540
他因推行爱国法案侵犯隐私等行为
广受争议，媒体常用此歌来恶搞讽刺
explain about John Ashcroft

1050
00:57:27,500 --> 00:57:28,400
（成年人每月用水量）
Adult One Month Stacked Water Usage Chart

1051
00:57:28,500 --> 00:57:30,000
（彭博金融资讯）
Bloomberg

1052
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:35,640
我是本•瑞克
Ben Ricker

1053
00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:37,200
本你好，我是杰米
Hey Ben it's Jamie!

1054
00:57:39,020 --> 00:57:41,280
杰米，我告诉过你不要打这个电话
Jamie, you know you're not
supposed to use this line.

1055
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:44,320
我就知道…
Told ya...

1056
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:48,720
试试这14个号码的第2个
OK, let's try number two out of fourteen.

1057
00:58:00,420 --> 00:58:01,440
本•瑞克
Ben Ricker

1058
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:04,940
本，你这不是自找麻烦吗？
你都退休了好吧
Ben, why do you do that man?
You're a retired trader, ok..

1059
00:58:04,940 --> 00:58:07,300

  • 没人监听你电话
  • 国安局有520亿的预算
    No-one is listening to your calls!
    -The NSA has a 52 billion dollar budget

1060
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:10,500
每秒能监听上千万个电话
你以为他们吃闲饭的？
and the ability to monitor tens of millions calls a second,
you think they're not using it?

1061
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:14,420
那我保证不会在一句话里同时说
OK, I promise i will refrain from saying,

1062
00:58:14,520 --> 00:58:17,700
你的名字和放射脏弹这词
Ben Ricker and dirty bomb in the same sentence

1063
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:20,600

  • 我的天 - 真受不了
    Jesus!
    -I'm sorry dude!

1064
00:58:21,980 --> 00:58:22,780
本•瑞克
Ben Ricker

1065
00:58:22,980 --> 00:58:25,120
你看到我们发给你的东西了吗
Did you get a chance to look at
what we sent you Ben?

1066
00:58:25,540 --> 00:58:27,560
我是查理，我也在旁边
It's Charlie....
I'm here too!

1067
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:30,740
查理，你好，我看了，稍等！
Hi Charlie, Yeah I did, Hold on!

1068
00:58:36,700 --> 00:58:37,960
本，你还听着吗
Ben, you still there?

1069
00:58:38,100 --> 00:58:38,820
嗯
Yeah

1070
00:58:39,900 --> 00:58:41,020
我就直说吧
I'll be honest gentlemen

1071
00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:43,540
你俩把我吓坏了
you scared the shit out of me!

1072
00:58:44,140 --> 00:58:47,800
那说明这是真东西对吧？这叫杰瑞德的家伙没胡说
That's a good thing right?
That means that this Vennett guy is not wrong!

1073
00:58:49,260 --> 00:58:50,220
是没有
No, he's not!

1074
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:53,840
太好了
Cool

1075
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:55,220
你们对CDO还了解什么
Tell me more about these CDO's

1076
00:58:55,580 --> 00:59:00,280
好的，杰瑞德只是提到了CDO
(担保债务凭证，再打包的房贷证券)
Yeah yeah, ehm, OK
Vennett mentioned the CDO's, but actually,

1077
00:59:00,500 --> 00:59:04,720

  • 我俩实际看了，情况比他想的还糟
  • 数据离谱的像假的一样
    We took a look and they're way worse then even he realizes
    -These things don't even make sense Ben.

1078
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:08,160

  • 连预测模型都用不了
  • 打包的CDO比房贷证券规模还要大100倍
    We can't even model them
    -It's a hundred times bigger than the MBS

1079
00:59:08,340 --> 00:59:09,900
然后有90%还是3A评级？
and ninety percent AAA-rating?

1080
00:59:10,060 --> 00:59:13,000

  • 是啊，超过90%
  • 干的漂亮
    Yes, over ninety percent
  • Incredible!

1081
00:59:13,100 --> 00:59:16,040
我仔细看了你打算做空的CDO
Yeah, I took a good hard look at
the CDO's you want to short.

1082
00:59:17,060 --> 00:59:19,160
天才的想法！CDO就是包装精美的屎
They're brilliant!
Worthless, total crap!

1083
00:59:20,200 --> 00:59:22,480
杰米，厉害厉害！
Jamie, very good!

1084
00:59:22,620 --> 00:59:26,000
怎么说呢…我找屎还挺擅长的！
What can i say.. I, I'm, I'm,
good at finding shit!

1085
00:59:26,040 --> 00:59:30,580
本，我们打算做空2B和3B级别的
风险也相对小一些
So Ben, we shorted the BB's and the BBB's,
and the risk is relatively low,

1086
00:59:31,060 --> 00:59:33,440
回报率差不多是25倍
Pay-up is like 25-to-1

1087
00:59:36,080 --> 00:59:38,040
那你们找我干啥？我洗手不干了
OK, so why are you calling me?
I don't do this anymore!

1088
00:59:38,140 --> 00:59:39,020
本，我们…
Look, Ben...

1089
00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:43,500
我们需要你帮忙搞定ISDA协议
We need you to help us get the ISDA.

1090
00:59:44,460 --> 00:59:47,120
有了持枪证，我们就能开干了
If we get a hunting license,
we can short this crap

1091
00:59:47,460 --> 00:59:50,140
我们知道你恨华尔街
所以不会让你去做交易
We know you hate Wall-street,
we're not asking you to do the trading

1092
00:59:50,220 --> 00:59:51,540
只是，请求你…
We're simply asking you to...

1093
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:53,160
帮助我们
To help us.

1094
00:59:53,420 --> 00:59:56,080
能坐到“大亨”席位就行
To get a seat at the fucking table

1095
00:59:57,740 --> 00:59:59,360
那种地方可是乌烟瘴气的很
It's a pretty ugly table guys

1096
00:59:59,520 --> 01:00:04,560
本，整个系统已经出大乱子了
Look Ben, the system fucked up
in a big, big way here, OK?

1097
01:00:04,660 --> 01:00:09,240
我们比所有人都先得到了消息
And somehow... we , eh..
know before anyone else.

1098
01:00:10,080 --> 01:00:12,940
这是绝对是千载难逢的机会！
You know, this is a
once in a lifetime deal!

1099
01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:16,780
我在考虑
I'm thinking

1100
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:23,540
好，我打电话给德意志银行
OK, I'll call Deutsche Bank

1101
01:00:23,620 --> 01:00:25,020
太感谢你了，本！
Thank you Ben!

1102
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:28,900
还有贝尔斯登公司，那里也有些把柄可以抓
Oh and Bear, what about Bear?
They have some apprehensible product!

1103
01:00:29,580 --> 01:00:31,980
好，贝尔肯定来者不拒
-OK, Bear will trade with anybody!

1104
01:00:35,780 --> 01:00:38,080
欢迎来到纽约 市长麦克•彭博
WELCOME TO NEW YORK CITY
Mayor Michael Bloomberg

1105
01:00:55,280 --> 01:00:58,280
bgm: 《Feel Good Inc》by Gorillaz
bgm: Feel Good Inc by Gorillaz

1106
01:00:58,580 --> 01:01:01,380
（骆驼上的铁屋子正越来越热）
(song) City's breakin' down on a camel's back

1107
01:01:01,420 --> 01:01:04,580
（逆来顺受的他们还装睡不醒）
(song) They just have to go 'cos they don't know whack

1108
01:01:05,500 --> 01:01:08,480
（娱乐至死的东西更吸引眼球）
(song) So all you fill the streets it's appealing to see

1109
01:01:09,080 --> 01:01:11,380
（有被洗脑的自由又何必逃脱）
(song) You won't get out the county, 'cos you're bad and free

1110
01:01:11,780 --> 01:01:14,880
（你们追求名利去醉生梦死）
(song) You've got a new horizon it's ephemeral style

1111
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:19,080
（阴沉的地方人人抑郁寡欢）
(song) A melancholy town where we never smile

1112
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:20,580
（我只想听到外面希望之声）
(song) And all I wanna hear is the message beep

1113
01:01:21,300 --> 01:01:23,120
我看看能不能把材料递上去
I'll see if i can push it through

1114
01:01:23,220 --> 01:01:24,840
帮我们谢谢杰瑞德
And oh, thank Jared for us.

1115
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:27,040
（仅存的梦想让我不敢入睡）
(song) My dreams, they gotta catch me, 'cos I don't get sleep, no

1116
01:01:35,540 --> 01:01:38,540
2007年6月29日，iPhone第一代发售
June 29, 2007, iPhone first release

1117
01:01:39,540 --> 01:01:43,040
2007年伊拉克战争，美国开始撤军
2007, Iraq War, began withdrawing

1118
01:01:43,540 --> 01:01:46,240
Trinette拍摄的在加长轿车里享受的夫妇
couple on Trinette Reed,photo by Trinette Reed, before Great Recession.

1119
01:01:49,540 --> 01:01:51,740
真相就像诗词
Truth is like poetry.

1120
01:01:52,340 --> 01:01:55,340
可绝大多数人都讨厌诗词
And most people fucking hate poetry.

1121
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:58,640
在华盛顿一个酒吧偶然听到
-Overheard at a Washington, DC. bar

1122
01:02:01,540 --> 01:02:08,500
断供的房贷达到新的1百万高点
Mortgage delinquencies hit new high nearly 1 million...

1123
01:02:11,700 --> 01:02:12,700
2007年1月11日
2007. Jan. 11

1124
01:02:13,400 --> 01:02:15,520
是我，马克，现在就把电话转给文尼
Hi, it's Mark,
I need to talk to Vinnie right now!

1125
01:02:15,620 --> 01:02:16,500
稍等
Wait a second

1126
01:02:16,700 --> 01:02:19,800
我们就是想让你们解释清楚…为什么
we just asking you to explain to us.. we need to know why

1127
01:02:20,100 --> 01:02:23,900
我们看到的和你说的完全不同
just how it is that you are fucking us,
because what we are seeing here is..

1128
01:02:26,180 --> 01:02:27,900
快去摩根士丹利大厦！
Morgan Stanley building fast!

1129
01:02:28,180 --> 01:02:32,300
我们屏幕上显示的东西难道不一样吗？
能不能让同一个人和我们说话
Are we hooked up at the same computer-screens?
-Can we talk to one person please?

1130
01:02:32,740 --> 01:02:34,660
你说你在哪儿？
OK, yeah.
-What do you mean, you're in the tower?

1131
01:02:35,220 --> 01:02:36,260
文尼，能听见吧？
Vinnie, are you there?

1132
01:02:37,340 --> 01:02:39,160

  • 马克，我能听见
  • 你听说了吗？
    Mark, are you there? Hello?
    -Yeah, Yeah, Did you hear?

1133
01:02:39,340 --> 01:02:41,100
房贷断供已经破记录了
Mortgages defaults have
gone through the roof!

1134
01:02:41,400 --> 01:02:42,920
你那里房顶有人跳楼吗？
Anybody jumping off the building yet?

1135
01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:44,900
为什么要跳？次级贷证券可是在上涨
Why would they?
Sub-Prime mortgages are up

1136
01:02:45,020 --> 01:02:49,400

  • 怎么可能？
  • 杰瑞德让我们今天再投入190万的抵押
    What?
    -Vennett wants 1.9 million more in collateral by-close

1137
01:02:49,560 --> 01:02:50,980
杰瑞德让我们追加抵押
Vennett's asking us to post collateral

1138
01:02:51,060 --> 01:02:52,440
怎么会这样？
What the hell is going on?

1139
01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:54,340
不知道，但德意志银行电话一直在催
We don't know,
but Deutsche is on the phone demanding payment

1140
01:02:54,460 --> 01:02:57,260

  • 把杰瑞德给我叫过来，这小畜生！
  • 给杰瑞德打电话
    Call Vennett, call that little shit!
    -Call Vennett!

1141
01:02:57,320 --> 01:02:58,320
让他快点滚过来
Tell him to get his ass down here

1142
01:02:58,420 --> 01:03:00,460
次级房贷断供越来越多
So, sub-prime loans go bad,

1143
01:03:00,560 --> 01:03:03,640
但是它们组成的房贷证券却更值钱了？
but sub-rime bonds, which are made up of sub-prime loans,
are more valuable?

1144
01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:06,100
我也奇怪，他们要今天必须交齐1千9百万
I know. They want another 1.9 million by market close

1145
01:03:06,100 --> 01:03:10,900
信用评级机构呢？穆迪公司？标准普尔？
他们调低了CDO或房贷证券的评级吗
What about the ratings-agencies? Moody's, S&P?
Are they downgrading the CDO's or mortgage bonds

1146
01:03:11,000 --> 01:03:13,740

  • 现在评级什么样？
  • 还是原封不动
    Where are the ratings of this?
    -They're the fucking same!

1147
01:03:13,900 --> 01:03:15,120
没变，还都是3A评级
Nope, They're all still AAA!

1148
01:03:15,120 --> 01:03:16,140
见鬼了！
What the hell!

1149
01:03:16,660 --> 01:03:19,780
他妈的在逗我？这帮混蛋，不要脸的！
Are you fucking kidding me?
Those fuckers, those motherfuckers!

1150
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:22,780
他们对外评级以后就钻到钱眼里去了
They go public and all the care about
is their bottom-line and their shit!

1151
01:03:22,840 --> 01:03:24,280
马克，还有事…
Mark, that's not all...

1152
01:03:24,920 --> 01:03:27,620
摩根士丹利风险部的过来了
他们找了你老板
The Morgan Stanley risk-guys are here
-They called in Kathy Tao

1153
01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:29,840
想说服她卖掉我们的互换
I'm trying to convince her
to make her sell us swaps

1154
01:03:29,940 --> 01:03:32,520
他们觉得这些保费肯定是被套牢的买卖
Apparently eh, tying up securing some insurance payments

1155
01:03:32,560 --> 01:03:35,400
等着房地产崩溃是不明智的投资
So, a housing Armageddon is not prudent investing.

1156
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:36,620
老板怎么说？
What did Kathy say?

1157
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:39,420
没表态，她一直问这是不是你的核心投资
Nothing yet,
she keeps asking if this is one of your crusades

1158
01:03:39,820 --> 01:03:43,620
明白了，你走过去，语气平静，非常礼貌的
OK, I want you to walk back in there
and very calmly, very politely

1159
01:03:43,620 --> 01:03:45,640
让这些风险评估师都他妈滚蛋
Tell the risk-assessors to fuck off!

1160
01:03:46,100 --> 01:03:49,120
然后过来和我在标准普尔碰头
我们要找乔治亚聊聊
And then meet me over at Standard & Poors,
we're gonna talk to Georgia

1161
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:54,240
把杰瑞德那混蛋叫过来
看我不把他脑浆打出来
Get that fuck Jared Vennett
I want to bash his fucking head in

1162
01:03:59,280 --> 01:04:00,300
嗯…各位
Uh, gentlemen...

1163
01:04:01,120 --> 01:04:02,500
我刚和马克•鲍姆谈过了
I spoke with Mark Baum

1164
01:04:02,780 --> 01:04:04,340
他的原话：都他妈滚蛋
He says: to fuck off!

1165
01:04:10,540 --> 01:04:12,040
纽约百老汇大道，铜牛
New York, Broadway, Charging Bull

1166
01:04:12,540 --> 01:04:16,540
百老汇大道25号，标准普尔评级机构
Standard & Poor's Ratings Agency, 25 Broadway

1167
01:04:18,300 --> 01:04:19,800
我眼睛不好使啊
I don't see a damn thing.

1168
01:04:21,560 --> 01:04:23,860
我选的眼科医生总是特别忙
Aaah, my eye-doctor is always busy

1169
01:04:23,900 --> 01:04:28,360
只要能预约上我就得去
今天上午就这么废了
I end up taking any appointment
they'll give me and then the whole morning gets shot to hell!

1170
01:04:30,060 --> 01:04:30,960
那么…
So...

1171
01:04:31,600 --> 01:04:32,620
好咧
Alrighty

1172
01:04:33,660 --> 01:04:35,680
顶尖基金的朋友们
FrontPoint Partners

1173
01:04:36,680 --> 01:04:38,800
标准普尔有什么能帮到你们的吗
How can Standard & Poors help you?

1174
01:04:39,080 --> 01:04:43,140
我们想弄明白，为什么评级机构
不下调次级贷证券的评级
Well, we don't understand why the ratings-agencies
haven't downgraded sub-prime bonds

1175
01:04:43,200 --> 01:04:45,560
证券包含的房贷，很明显情况在恶化
since the underlying loans are clearly deteriorating

1176
01:04:46,160 --> 01:04:50,420
断供率是让人们担心了
不过数字波动还在我们的合理模型之内
Well, the delinquency-rates do have people worried,
but they're actually within our models

1177
01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:51,220
那…
So

1178
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:53,540
你说没事就没事？
Says you?

1179
01:04:53,720 --> 01:04:57,500
你确信这些证券里的房贷是可靠的？
You're convinced the underlying mortgages
in these bonds are solid loans?

1180
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:00,660

  • 这是我们的观点
  • 打开天窗说亮话
    That is our opinion yeah.
    -Oh crack the tape!

1181
01:05:00,960 --> 01:05:02,740
你看过底层房贷的数据吗？
Have you looked at the loan-level data?

1182
01:05:03,080 --> 01:05:06,360

  • 你以为我们整天在干啥
  • 现在只要有信用分，就肯定能拿到房贷
    What you think we do here all day?
    They're giving these loans to anyone with a credit-score and a pulse

1183
01:05:06,480 --> 01:05:08,760
打断一下，你认为我们工作是什么？
Excuse me sir, what do you think we do here all day?

1184
01:05:08,760 --> 01:05:09,960
我不明白，要不我们也不会过来
Not sure, I guess that's why we're here.

1185
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:10,880
我不明白
What I don't understand

1186
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:12,140
我们再三反覆核对过了！
We can't re-recheck and then check again!

1187
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:15,240
如果这些房贷证券这么稳定可靠
If these mortgage-bonds are so stable, so solid

1188
01:05:15,390 --> 01:05:16,300
你先检查一下你同事吧
you should check your friend

1189
01:05:16,380 --> 01:05:18,880
你有没有…
Have you ever refused to rate?

1190
01:05:18,880 --> 01:05:20,940

  • 做你的梦吧 - 我们有理由这么评级
    that's delusional!
    -We stand behind it

1191
01:05:20,980 --> 01:05:24,860
你有没有给过这里任何一个证券
评级低于3A级别？
Have you ever refused to rate
any of these bonds upper-tranches AAA?

1192
01:05:25,820 --> 01:05:27,100
我们能看看对应的材料吗？
Can we see the paperwork on those?

1193
01:05:27,100 --> 01:05:31,520
我没有义务给你们看内部信息
不管你是谁
Oooh, I'm under no obligation to share that information
with you, whoever you might be.

1194
01:05:31,520 --> 01:05:34,800
你就回答我的简单问题
给我们个去年低于3A评级的名字
Just answer the question Georgia,
can you name one time in the past year?

1195
01:05:34,800 --> 01:05:39,700
你去看了实际数据
最后也没有给银行想要的3A评级
Where you checked the tape and you didn't
give the banks the AAA-percentage they wanted?

1196
01:05:42,460 --> 01:05:45,740
如果我们不这么评，人家就去隔壁的穆迪评级了
If we don't give them the ratings,
they'll go to Moody's right down the block.

1197
01:05:46,460 --> 01:05:50,320
我们不配合，那我们的对头就会抢走客户的钱
If we don't work with them
they will go to our competitors

1198
01:05:50,660 --> 01:05:53,060
这地方就这么运转，我们有什么办法
Not our fault,
simply the way the world works.

1199
01:05:58,120 --> 01:05:59,920

  • 我靠！- 明白了吧
    Holy shit!
    -Ah yes, now you see it!

1200
01:06:01,620 --> 01:06:02,620
我什么都没说过！
And I never said that!

1201
01:06:03,920 --> 01:06:06,080
你们就是卖信用评级的赚钱机构
You're selling ratings for fee's

1202
01:06:06,160 --> 01:06:06,800
信用商店
A ratings shop

1203
01:06:07,340 --> 01:06:09,880
你们不赚这么多钱也能维持运行啊
You could afford to make less,
make less.

1204
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:11,320
没人这么要求我
Nobody said that!

1205
01:06:12,120 --> 01:06:14,340
这不是我能做主的，我有老板管着
And it is not my decision,
I have a boss.

1206
01:06:14,600 --> 01:06:17,700

  • 你在逗我？ - 我没空跟你开玩笑
    Are you kidding me?
    -No I am not kidding you!

1207
01:06:19,520 --> 01:06:21,000
这就是你的立场？
Is that the angle you're taking?

1208
01:06:21,000 --> 01:06:22,860
这意思是只要有老板的人
So now anybody who has a boss,

1209
01:06:23,140 --> 01:06:27,160

  • 都不用为任何图财害命的勾当负责了！
  • 你当自己四岁小孩吗
    Can't be held responsible for doing shitty and illegal things!
    -What are you? Four?

1210
01:06:27,600 --> 01:06:29,300
我不是四岁孩子
No, eh, eh, I am not four!

1211
01:06:30,040 --> 01:06:31,840
不是不负责！
Mister Baum, I am not, no!

1212
01:06:32,280 --> 01:06:35,440
我倒奇怪，你们来找我的动机是什么
And I wonder, I wonder,
what your incentives might be.

1213
01:06:35,660 --> 01:06:39,600
是不是评级变了，对你们有好处啊？
Is it maybe in your best interest
to have the ratings changed? Is it, perhaps?

1214
01:06:42,140 --> 01:06:44,620
信用违约互换你们买了多少？
How many credit default swaps do you own?

1215
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:48,160
立场和对错是两回事
Doesn't make me wrong

1216
01:06:50,060 --> 01:06:51,280
你俩还装什么好人！
just makes you a hypocrite!

1217
01:07:02,080 --> 01:07:04,080
bgm: 《District Divided》by Darkest Hour
bgm: District Divided by Darkest Hour

1218
01:07:13,580 --> 01:07:16,580
下跌11.3% 赛恩净值
-11.3% SCION VALUE

1219
01:07:34,700 --> 01:07:37,860
房贷断供，房贷证券却更值钱了，真见鬼了
Mortgage-delinquencies went up
and the CDO's got more valuable, unbelievable!

1220
01:07:37,860 --> 01:07:40,280
是啊，走势太反常了！
We know, it's completely backwards!

1221
01:07:40,520 --> 01:07:43,640
我给贝尔斯登公司的朋友打电话
他连CDO是啥都不知道
I just called an old friend at Bear
he didn't even know what a CDO is.

1222
01:07:43,640 --> 01:07:48,180
是啊，我刚给贝尔和德意志汇过去7万块钱
Yeah, I just had to wire Bear and Deutsche
seventy thousand dollars

1223
01:07:48,180 --> 01:07:50,480
这感觉，就好像现在二加二等于…
It's like two plus two equals...

1224
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:51,840
屎！
Fish!

1225
01:07:52,180 --> 01:07:52,780
好啊
Great!

1226
01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:54,660
这里面显然有黑幕
You bought into a rigged game

1227
01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:58,680
要是钱赔光了，我就得回去家里蹲
We lose everything..
-I'm gonna have to move back in with my mom!

1228
01:07:59,980 --> 01:08:00,840
我可不想我妈管我
can't do that

1229
01:08:01,280 --> 01:08:02,760
我等会还有事儿忙
Well, alright i got a colon in a couple of mins

1230
01:08:03,640 --> 01:08:04,740
等一下，别挂电话
Wait a minute, hold on! Ben!

1231
01:08:05,340 --> 01:08:06,000
本，听我说
Ben, look!

1232
01:08:06,740 --> 01:08:11,820
有可能银行完全不懂CDO是什么东西，或者
Either the banks are clueless
and they don't know how to value these CDO's or...

1233
01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:17,800
或者他们想用沙子把屎盖起来，藏着掖着
they're suck crooks that...
the CDO's are worth shit, and they're hiding it!

1234
01:08:20,820 --> 01:08:23,000
我觉得我们应该再买更多！
I think we should buy more swaps!

1235
01:08:23,160 --> 01:08:25,960

  • 你说啥？
  • 别废话，合同上白纸黑字写得清楚
  • What? -Suck it up and pay up fellas we made a deal

1236
01:08:26,080 --> 01:08:28,060
不行！不行！
No way, No!

1237
01:08:28,060 --> 01:08:32,000
你小子玩我们吗，还有脸过来
Are you fucking kidding me?
you come in here you fuck up
-Are you fucking seriously?

1238
01:08:32,280 --> 01:08:34,600

  • 不不不！
  • 行！
    No, no, no!
    -Yeah!

1239
01:08:34,680 --> 01:08:36,940
你脑子烧了吗
You're unbelievable!

1240
01:08:41,140 --> 01:08:43,080
不行不行不行！
No, no, no!

1241
01:08:43,380 --> 01:08:44,780
建议你每年灌一次肠来排排毒
Seriously, colonic once a year!

1242
01:08:44,780 --> 01:08:48,240
你就是个跑腿的，装逼不成等着被操吧！
Ass!
-You got a matching little butler-boy you butt-fuck!

1243
01:08:52,540 --> 01:08:53,240
都发泄完了？
Are you done?

1244
01:08:53,620 --> 01:08:56,720

  • 完了… - 刚才大声骂，我都闪腰了
    Think so yeah
    -God i pulled a muscle in my back from yelling

1245
01:08:59,760 --> 01:09:02,320
房贷断供率一直在涨
Mortgage defaults have done nothing
but go up!

1246
01:09:03,480 --> 01:09:05,920
你给我们房贷证券的报价还更高了
Yet you quote us
a higher price on the bonds

1247
01:09:07,540 --> 01:09:09,460
你给我解释清楚！这显然不合道理
Please explain that to me!
There's no way that makes sense!

1248
01:09:09,580 --> 01:09:11,760
你的量化方法绝对有问题
There's no way you're
marketing these swaps appropriately!

1249
01:09:14,340 --> 01:09:15,880
有什么理由让我们继续干？
I mean, why shouldn't we back out
of this trade right now?

1250
01:09:18,760 --> 01:09:22,220
我说没说过，咱们谈成买卖的时候
评级机构，美国证券交易委员会
Didn't I say, that when we made this deal,
that the rating-agencies, the SEC

1251
01:09:22,340 --> 01:09:24,500
大银行们全都不懂？说没说过？
and the big banks were clueless!
Didn't I say that?

1252
01:09:25,360 --> 01:09:27,400

  • 说过没有？
  • 有说过的，有说过的
    Didn't I say it?
    -Yes you did, you did!

1253
01:09:28,220 --> 01:09:28,900
闭嘴！
shut up!

1254
01:09:29,780 --> 01:09:32,900
他们脚都开始着火了，心里却想着牛排应该烤熟了
你还觉得奇怪？
now their foot's on fire and they think their steak is done,
and you're surprised?

1255
01:09:32,900 --> 01:09:35,180
这不是愚蠢，这是诈骗
That's not stupidity...
that's fraud!

1256
01:09:35,780 --> 01:09:39,100
你跟我说清楚愚蠢和违法的区别
我就去把我小舅子抓起来
Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal
and I'll have my wife's brother arrested.

1257
01:09:41,620 --> 01:09:45,380

  • 挺好笑的！
  • 你们还是没弄明白整个系统有多蠢
    That was funny!
    -I guess you just don't realize how clueless the system really is!

1258
01:09:46,140 --> 01:09:48,520
我承认，是有一些见不得人的勾当
Yes, there's some shady shit going down!

1259
01:09:48,520 --> 01:09:51,680
但相信我，这是愚蠢驱使的
but trust me, it's fueled by stupidity!

1260
01:09:53,300 --> 01:09:54,160
看看你们这些人
Look at yourselves!

1261
01:09:55,220 --> 01:09:57,680
都觉得自己是敢于怀疑的人
You know you passed yourselves off
as cynical people but....

1262
01:09:58,820 --> 01:10:01,280
可你们还对这帮青天大老爷抱有希望？
You still have some faith in the system don't you?

1263
01:10:01,320 --> 01:10:01,960
我是不抱
I don't

1264
01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:03,620
文尼是明白人！
Well, except for Vinnie!

1265
01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:05,300
谁在乎？
Who gives a shit?

1266
01:10:05,480 --> 01:10:06,980

  • 不行！- 听我说
    No way!
    -Look!

1267
01:10:07,480 --> 01:10:10,380
要么我们对，要么我们错得离谱
Either we're right, or we're wrong
in a giant, giant way!

1268
01:10:10,820 --> 01:10:13,840
如果真错了，得找高人给我们点醒才行
And if we're wrong then we gotta
find someone to help us get out of this trade

1269
01:10:14,480 --> 01:10:17,000
我现在是一点都不觉得我们占理
I'm not feeling remotely confident that we're right

1270
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:19,060
万一咱们错了
And, and... If we're wrong

1271
01:10:19,560 --> 01:10:23,600
谁来告诉我们？有谁懂？没人懂！
Who's gonna tell us?
Who understands this stuff? It makes no sense!

1272
01:10:26,560 --> 01:10:27,980
我们应该去拉斯维加斯！
I think we need to go to Vegas!

1273
01:10:28,360 --> 01:10:30,060

  • 那儿有什么？ - 去哪儿干啥
    What's in Vegas?
    -Vegas!

1274
01:10:30,700 --> 01:10:32,180
拉斯维加斯又能有什么东西？
What the hell is in Las Vegas?

1275
01:10:33,700 --> 01:10:36,360
下周那里召开美国证券化论坛年会
The American Securitization Forum
is there next week

1276
01:10:37,020 --> 01:10:41,100
每个证券、CDO、次级贷、倒卖交换的交易员都会去
Every bond and CDO-salesman, sub-prime lender
and swap-trader is gonna be there

1277
01:10:41,720 --> 01:10:42,520
我这么说
I'm telling you

1278
01:10:42,900 --> 01:10:44,480
你挣的是他们手里的钱
Your bet is against their money,

1279
01:10:44,480 --> 01:10:47,400
是时候去看看人傻钱多是怎么回事了
it's about time you find out
just how dumb that money really is

1280
01:10:47,400 --> 01:10:48,420
我真不喜欢拉斯维加斯
God no, I hate Vegas!

1281
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:51,480
听说吃的东西特别好，那里也有松久寿司店了
I hear the food has gotten really good in Vegas,
they have a Nobu now

1282
01:10:52,360 --> 01:10:53,340
你能不惦记着吃吗
could you fucking stop!

1283
01:10:54,540 --> 01:10:57,540
美国证券化论坛，拉斯维加斯
American Securitization Forum, Las Vegas

1284
01:11:00,740 --> 01:11:04,740
bgm:《The Phantom of the Opera》by Andrew Webber
bgm: THE Phantom of the Opera, by Andrew Lloyd Webber

1285
01:11:07,740 --> 01:11:09,340
汽车抵押贷款 工资日贷款
Auto Title Loans & Payday Loans

1286
01:11:14,540 --> 01:11:16,040
凯撒宫酒店
Caesars Palace

1287
01:11:23,540 --> 01:11:24,740
择一抵押公司CEO保罗•丹顿
Option One CEO Paul Dantone

1288
01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:26,040
房贷市场仍然稳健，后劲十足
The Mortgage Market is Strong & Getting Stronger

1289
01:11:39,520 --> 01:11:42,440
证券“贵”的意思是？
... in a sense?
-If the bond is "rich", it is...?

1290
01:11:42,780 --> 01:11:45,060
只说明证券定价过高
that just means it's overpriced

1291
01:11:45,780 --> 01:11:48,360

  • 飞机上睡不着我就自己准备了一下
  • 咱们集中精神！
    I can't sleep on a plane so I did my homework
    -OK, let's focus!

1292
01:11:49,080 --> 01:11:49,840
我们是为了什么来的？
What's our goal?

1293
01:11:50,700 --> 01:11:53,180
搞清楚这买卖是千载难逢的机会
Figure out if this is a deal of a lifetime or...

1294
01:11:53,180 --> 01:11:56,340
还是别人比我们懂得都多
咱们回头会亏大发了
everyone knows here something we don't
and we're gonna get royally screwed

1295
01:11:56,700 --> 01:11:59,400
和贝尔公司的人接触的时候
注意你们的目的
Right, remember that
when you meet with guys from Bear!

1296
01:11:59,620 --> 01:12:01,160
我给你们安排见面机会
I'll set you up with a face-to-face

1297
01:12:01,420 --> 01:12:02,560
好的，地方在哪？
Awesome, where is that?

1298
01:12:02,860 --> 01:12:06,960
我的天！5年前这年会还是穷鬼聚会
Holy shit! Five years ago Securitization
was a loser-convention

1299
01:12:07,380 --> 01:12:09,240
也就有100到200人出席
a hundred, maybe two-hundred people would show

1300
01:12:09,580 --> 01:12:11,520
产业每年五千亿的发展之后，就变成这样了
500 billion dollars a year later you get this!

1301
01:12:11,600 --> 01:12:13,280
这里自带装逼表情的人还真多
There's a lot of smug-looking people in here huh!?

1302
01:12:13,280 --> 01:12:16,740
好像暴发户白人都跑来了
It looks like someone just hit a pinata
that was filled with white people who suck at golf

1303
01:12:17,180 --> 01:12:19,780

  • 都从哪儿冒出来的？
  • 别抱怨了，肯定很好玩
    I mean, who are all these clown?
    -Ah come on, I think it looks fun!

1304
01:12:19,940 --> 01:12:22,780
查理，杰瑞德说咱们赚的是这些人的钱
Charlie,
Vennett says these are the people
we're betting against.

1305
01:12:23,520 --> 01:12:27,360
咱们过去，克里斯，到我左边去，别挡道
Yeah, here we go
Chris on my left, Chris, on my left!

1306
01:12:28,140 --> 01:12:32,160

  • 大家好
  • 什么时候能见到你说的那些爱心天使
    Gentlemen!
    -When do we get a chance
    to face-time with some of these lovely folks?

1307
01:12:32,540 --> 01:12:33,720
克里斯，把门卡发给他们
Chris, give em the key cards!

1308
01:12:34,100 --> 01:12:35,540
别弄混了
Do you even know which key-cords you're giving out?

1309
01:12:36,500 --> 01:12:39,160

  • 先生们路上还顺利吗？
  • 没什么事儿
    First of all, how was your travel?
    -Uneventful?

1310
01:12:39,340 --> 01:12:41,600

  • 没事 - 我来了6小时了
    Uneventful!
    -OK, I've been here for six hours!

1311
01:12:41,760 --> 01:12:45,480
我已经锻炼完，吃了两个荷包蛋
还和演员斯坦顿一起打牌
I've already been to the Gym, I had two poached eggs,
and I played blackjack with Harry Dean Stanton

1312
01:12:45,600 --> 01:12:46,900
你记日记还真清楚
Thank you for your diary!

1313
01:12:47,440 --> 01:12:50,300

  • 我想找人见面聊
  • 提醒你们记住，我们是来收集信息的
    Face-time! I'd like some face-time!
    -Just remember, we're here just to gather information!

1314
01:12:50,640 --> 01:12:53,900
我们是收集信息，不要打草惊蛇
We're gathering information,
we're not advertising our short-position!

1315
01:12:54,280 --> 01:12:56,460
别吓到大伙儿，行不行？
Right? We don't want to spook anybody!
Can we do that?

1316
01:12:56,460 --> 01:12:57,980
你说话太直，还老是不停嘴
You got a big mouth,
and you like to run it

1317
01:12:57,980 --> 01:13:00,700

  • 这几天能不能收敛一点？
  • 好吧，好吧
    Can you just keep it shut for a few days?
    -OK, OK!

1318
01:13:00,880 --> 01:13:02,420
别担心，我们会好好套话的
Yeah, don't worry, we'll play nice!

1319
01:13:02,680 --> 01:13:03,460
女士们先生们
Ladies and gentlemen!

1320
01:13:04,420 --> 01:13:06,100
商业形势大好
Business is good!

1321
01:13:06,700 --> 01:13:08,080
利润也很高！
Profits are strong!

1322
01:13:08,080 --> 01:13:13,280
房贷还坚持着经济的中流砥柱作用
and the mortgage continues to be
the bedrock on which this economy is built.

1323
01:13:18,240 --> 01:13:21,940
去年我们在次级贷市场有些损失
Yes, we had to take some losses
in our sub-prime department last year,

1324
01:13:21,980 --> 01:13:25,440
不过预计也就最多损失5%
But those losses,
will be contained at only five percent!

1325
01:13:25,900 --> 01:13:26,360
接下来说
Now

1326
01:13:26,880 --> 01:13:28,260
我们住宅业务板块的表现
In our residential sector...

1327
01:13:28,460 --> 01:13:29,440
马克，这不是提问环节！
Mark, it's not a Q&A!

1328
01:13:29,520 --> 01:13:32,660
我们推出的可调利率房贷被一抢而空
our roll out of those variable rate-packages were gobbled up by the

1329
01:13:33,020 --> 01:13:34,420
我有个问题！
I have a question please!

1330
01:13:38,080 --> 01:13:42,180
先生，本来提问环节是在我陈述之后
但看你这么着急
Sir, the Q&A is after my statement,
but you know what, you seem anxious!

1331
01:13:42,180 --> 01:13:44,480

  • 现在就问吧，你好啊
  • 你好，谢谢！
    How can I help you?
    -How are you?
    Fine, thank you!

1332
01:13:44,700 --> 01:13:45,900
你觉得…
Would you say,

1333
01:13:45,900 --> 01:13:49,380
有没有这个可能性，或者说必然性
that is it a possibility,
or a probability

1334
01:13:49,380 --> 01:13:52,420
次级贷的损失最多升到5%封顶？
that sub-prime losses stop at five percent?

1335
01:13:53,040 --> 01:13:53,980
谢谢！
Thank you!

1336
01:13:53,980 --> 01:13:58,460
我觉得这简直是必然的，是的！
I would say it is a very strong probability, indeed!

1337
01:13:59,300 --> 01:14:02,000
再回到住宅部分
So, ehm, back to the residential sector,

1338
01:14:02,000 --> 01:14:04,640

  • 我们推出可调利率…
  • 我还没问完
    when we rolled out the new variable rates package
    -Excuse me!

1339
01:14:04,660 --> 01:14:06,480
这位先生
The ehm. Yes Sir!

1340
01:14:08,140 --> 01:14:08,740
零！
Zero!

1341
01:14:09,320 --> 01:14:10,200
零！
Zero!

1342
01:14:11,200 --> 01:14:12,360
零！
ZERO!

1343
01:14:12,640 --> 01:14:15,300
可能性为零
There is a zero percent chance

1344
01:14:15,540 --> 01:14:19,180
次级贷止损到5%的可能性为
that your sub-prime losses will stop at five percent!

1345
01:14:19,560 --> 01:14:20,380
零！
Zero!

1346
01:14:20,620 --> 01:14:21,400
抱歉！
Excuse me!

1347
01:14:22,620 --> 01:14:25,060

  • 我得接这个电话了
  • 你一定来自眼红我们的美国银行吧！
    I have to take this
    -He must be from Bank of America!

1348
01:14:27,300 --> 01:14:29,500
我现在什么都没干
No, I'm really not doing anything right now!

1349
01:14:29,820 --> 01:14:32,440

  • 我正说到住宅部分
  • 孩子们都还好吗
    as I was saying, our residential sector
    -uh huh, and how are the kids?

1350
01:14:32,660 --> 01:14:35,040
客户对我们的房贷产品反响…
Consumers reacted to our packages

1351
01:14:35,200 --> 01:14:38,280
马克真的这么做了！他来拉斯维加斯真敢这么做
Mark Baum really did that!
when we were in Vegas he did that!

1352
01:14:38,280 --> 01:14:40,020
敢这么说，还接电话走人了
He said that... he took the call,

1353
01:14:40,940 --> 01:14:42,220
明白我有多费心了吗？
Now you see what i had to deal with!

1354
01:14:58,760 --> 01:15:00,760
这UZI微冲真是爽啊！
This Uzi is fucking awesome!

1355
01:15:00,880 --> 01:15:03,400
只要让CDO再转上两年
If I can get this CDO-machine to run
for another two years

1356
01:15:03,400 --> 01:15:06,080
我就能富的流油，在滑雪胜地买房了
and then, I'm rich as fuck
and I got my house in Aspen!

1357
01:15:06,980 --> 01:15:11,580
你对证券化的资产表现不担心吗
But do you have any concerns about
the performance of the underlying securitizations?

1358
01:15:11,640 --> 01:15:13,540
违约的消息一直有
It's easy to see that delinquencies,

1359
01:15:13,540 --> 01:15:16,200
断供率又在增长了
eh, default-rates are on the rise right now!

1360
01:15:16,720 --> 01:15:18,540
你俩怎么老泼冷水，有意思吗
Could you please stop being such a buzz-kill dude!

1361
01:15:19,240 --> 01:15:21,340
带你们来放松，不是再来聊工作的
We didn't bring you out here
to talk about work bro!

1362
01:15:21,720 --> 01:15:23,040
你为什么带我们过来
Why'd you bring us out here?

1363
01:15:23,300 --> 01:15:26,100
因为我们必须让客户给弹药买单
Because we need to be able
to expense the ammo to a client!

1364
01:15:26,660 --> 01:15:28,820
来继续射击恐怖分子吧，你们看着点
We're gonna shoot some terrorists,
watch out boys!

1365
01:15:29,920 --> 01:15:32,740

  • 这是一群白痴！- 真是个棒槌！
    These guys are morons!
    -Fucking tool!

1366
01:15:35,180 --> 01:15:36,360
真他妈爽！
Woo!-
Fuck Yes!

1367
01:15:36,360 --> 01:15:38,260
爽啊！炸啊！
Boom, yeah man BOOM!

1368
01:15:38,260 --> 01:15:42,080

  • 我们所有余钱都应该买互换！
  • 先别急，别急
    We ought to be buying every swap we can get our hands on!
    -Just hold on okay, hold on!

1369
01:15:42,660 --> 01:15:46,940
我哥哥的前女友在证券交易委员会工作
她说她也在城里，我去聊聊
My brother's ex-girlfriend works for the SEC,
she just told me she's in town, okay!?

1370
01:15:46,940 --> 01:15:50,760
如果有些内幕消息我们不知道
她是最有可能透露给我们的人
So if we're missing something,
maybe she can tell me, give me some insight.

1371
01:15:50,860 --> 01:15:54,900
你这边先去一楼再买点互换
In the mean-time, you go to the main floor
to buy some more swaps

1372
01:15:54,900 --> 01:15:58,440
有个事儿，我们想要投资房贷证券
Well actually, we're about to invest in housing bonds.

1373
01:15:59,160 --> 01:16:01,860
我想问问证券交易委员会的态度
I was just wondering if
the SEC is worried about them at all

1374
01:16:01,860 --> 01:16:04,600
我知道你不能透露具体内容
但你可以说说大概态度
I know you're not allowed to tell me specifics,
but, just generally.

1375
01:16:04,600 --> 01:16:06,700
我们不去调查房产证券
Ow, we don't investigate mortgage bonds

1376
01:16:06,920 --> 01:16:10,140
实际上，我们预算减了以后
就不怎么调查了
Truth is, since we had our budgets cut,
we don't investigate much!

1377
01:16:12,500 --> 01:16:15,140

  • 那你开会不是来调查的吗？
  • 我又不是以证交会员工身份过来的
    Then why are you here? I thought..
    -I'm not here for the SEC!

1378
01:16:15,360 --> 01:16:16,740
我自己花钱来的
I'm here on my own dime

1379
01:16:18,020 --> 01:16:20,720
正给各大银行投简历呢
I'm floating my resume to some big banks!

1380
01:16:21,240 --> 01:16:22,640
你哥还好吗？
How's your brother by the way?

1381
01:16:23,000 --> 01:16:24,960
你怎么能把简历递给大银行呢？
How are you floating your resume to big banks?

1382
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:27,920
你不是应该监管大银行吗？
I mean, you're supposed to be
the ones policing the big banks

1383
01:16:27,920 --> 01:16:29,000
你几岁了，杰米
Grow up Jamie!

1384
01:16:29,240 --> 01:16:33,060
肯定有法律规定你们不能…
There must be some kind of law
against working for a financial institution

1385
01:16:33,060 --> 01:16:36,240
马上从监管跳到被监管的地方
right after you've been working
in financial regulation right?

1386
01:16:36,540 --> 01:16:37,300
没有
No!

1387
01:16:38,060 --> 01:16:38,580
没有啊
No!

1388
01:16:40,020 --> 01:16:40,800
嘿
Hey!

1389
01:16:41,540 --> 01:16:42,420
道奇！
Dougie!

1390
01:16:43,160 --> 01:16:47,160

  • 快过来！你怎么也来凯撒宫了
  • 他在高盛工作
    Hey, come over here!
    What are you doing at Caesar's?
    -He's a Goldman

1391
01:16:49,320 --> 01:16:54,160
我们应该能做5%的3B评分互换
We can do BBB-level swaps
at 500 basis points, maybe!

1392
01:16:54,340 --> 01:16:58,080
你们互换价格这么高
好像证券要跌破价一样
You're pricing the swaps,
like the bond is gonna collapse

1393
01:16:58,440 --> 01:17:00,720
虽然现在证券价格还在上升？你确定吗
Even though the bond-value is going up? Really?

1394
01:17:01,240 --> 01:17:04,120

  • 这是变革的年代！
  • 搞不懂究竟是怎么回事啊
    Exciting times!
    -What the hell is going on?!

1395
01:18:02,320 --> 01:18:06,280
刘易斯，你能明天早点儿过来吗？
Lewis, Can you come early tomorrow, please?

1396
01:18:06,340 --> 01:18:10,280
我得减持美国国际集团
国家银行、联邦住房抵押贷款公司
I need to unload the AIG and
Countrywide Freddie Mac positions

1397
01:18:10,340 --> 01:18:12,620
这样才能填上资金缺口
so we can afford the premiums on the

1398
01:18:14,020 --> 01:18:16,400
核心做空的保费还差一些
core mortgage-shorts on the swaps

1399
01:18:17,320 --> 01:18:18,380
没问题，贝利博士
No problem Dr. Burry

1400
01:18:20,700 --> 01:18:21,880
贝利博士！
Dr. Burry!

1401
01:18:25,660 --> 01:18:27,680
要是投资者撤资，咱们接下来会怎么样？
If the investors withdraw,
what's gonna happen here?

1402
01:18:28,480 --> 01:18:29,420
我们就完了？
Are we done?

1403
01:18:29,580 --> 01:18:30,960
我也不知道
Honestly I don't know!

1404
01:18:35,820 --> 01:18:37,200
证…
The, the...

1405
01:18:39,240 --> 01:18:40,740
证券一直不下跌！
the bonds aren't going down!

1406
01:18:42,540 --> 01:18:43,420
一动不动！
They won't move!

1407
01:18:43,880 --> 01:18:44,840
很有可能
It's possible

1408
01:18:45,720 --> 01:18:49,920
整个金融系统都在欺诈
That we are in a completely fraudulent system.

1409
01:18:51,720 --> 01:18:54,540
或者…是你…错了
Or... you're,
you're wrong.

1410
01:18:59,060 --> 01:19:00,360
是有可能
Sure!

1411
01:19:00,860 --> 01:19:04,080
有这个可能，可我找不出我错在哪里
It's possible,
I just don't know how!

1412
01:19:10,020 --> 01:19:10,960
我估计
I guess....

1413
01:19:11,060 --> 01:19:11,600
别人…
when...

1414
01:19:12,120 --> 01:19:13,520
犯了错，也不知道
someone's wrong, they never..

1415
01:19:14,240 --> 01:19:16,060
错在哪里吧！
they never...
Know how!

1416
01:19:20,860 --> 01:19:23,060

  • 早上见吧！ - 好
    See you in the morning!
    -Yeah.

1417
01:19:24,860 --> 01:19:26,640
贝尔也把价格提高了！
Even Bear up their prices!

1418
01:19:27,620 --> 01:19:29,620
管我们棕地基金叫屎洞基金
they keep calling us Brown Hole

1419
01:19:30,260 --> 01:19:32,740
你们没钱没名声，他们瞧不起也正常
别往心里去
you just don't have the money or the reputation,
don't take it personal!

1420
01:19:33,140 --> 01:19:36,380
估计今晚我没心情去看脱衣舞了，喝点酒去
I don't think i have the strip-club in me tonight
I'm just gonna get some drinks around.

1421
01:19:37,400 --> 01:19:41,340
晚上看些付费A片，订好明早的机票就行了
Watch some Pay-per-view
book us some flights out for the morning.

1422
01:19:42,080 --> 01:19:44,480
交易…我们需要做成一笔交易
d- d- deal, we need a deal, right, a deal.

1423
01:19:44,960 --> 01:19:49,180
我们得做一个能承受的，并且对方肯定不会拒绝的
Uhm, we need a deal we can afford,
we need a deal they're not gonna refuse!

1424
01:19:49,500 --> 01:19:52,000
怎么办呢…
So... What can we do?
We can....

1425
01:19:53,840 --> 01:19:56,520
2A评级的怎么样？我们压注2A评级的证券
The AA-tranches,
What if we bet against the AA-tranches?

1426
01:19:56,520 --> 01:19:58,520
谁会拒绝这种赌注？
Who's not gonna take that bet?

1427
01:19:58,660 --> 01:20:01,740
他们说95%都是3A级别的
We know that they say
they're ninety-five percent AAA-rated

1428
01:20:01,740 --> 01:20:05,160
其实顶多才有25%，剩下的都是垃圾证券
But in reality, they're more like twenty-five percent,
some of them are zero percent!

1429
01:20:06,440 --> 01:20:09,160
我们也知道如果最差评级的证券
有超过8%作废
We also know that if the bottom-tranches fail
at over eight percent

1430
01:20:09,160 --> 01:20:11,340
就会导致最上面的证券也跟着雪崩
The upper-tranches are affected
and they go to zero.

1431
01:20:11,760 --> 01:20:14,900
所以这些2A级别，顶多就是B级
I'll bet you right now,
that those AA's are actually like B's!

1432
01:20:15,240 --> 01:20:18,420
我很少这么说，不过这回查理是对的
I rarely ever say these words
but i think Charlie is right!

1433
01:20:18,420 --> 01:20:19,880
你看，本
Look, Ben!

1434
01:20:21,920 --> 01:20:22,560
回报率…
Pay-off!

1435
01:20:24,040 --> 01:20:27,280
是200比1，但他们是根据现在评级来定价
is 200-to-1, but they're all taking the ratings
of face value

1436
01:20:27,720 --> 01:20:30,980
所以低风险2A的保费很低
They're charging penny's on the dollar
to bet against Double-A's

1437
01:20:32,400 --> 01:20:34,400
我刚开始觉得你俩是笨蛋
Just when i start thinking
you guys are clowns!

1438
01:20:35,340 --> 01:20:37,480
地球人都不会去做空2A级别
No-one on the planet is betting against Double-A's

1439
01:20:38,000 --> 01:20:40,660
银行会认为我们嗑药了，或者中风了
The banks will think we're either high,
or having a stroke

1440
01:20:40,980 --> 01:20:42,780
他们会大方接受我们的所有提议
And they'll take every dime we have to offer!

1441
01:20:45,900 --> 01:20:46,800
绝妙的主意
Kind of brilliant!

1442
01:20:49,080 --> 01:20:50,860
这个点子，只有我们想到了
This is what we did,
that no-one else thought of.

1443
01:20:51,260 --> 01:20:53,580
连马克和麦克都没有做空2A
Not even Baum or Berry thought
to short the Double-A's

1444
01:20:54,240 --> 01:20:55,180
但我们做了
But we did.

1445
01:20:55,560 --> 01:20:57,080
我们这个小不点屎洞基金
Little Brown Hole Capital

1446
01:20:57,660 --> 01:21:01,360
我们想做空一些2A级的CDO
So we're interesting in shorting
some of the AA-tranches of CDO's

1447
01:21:02,600 --> 01:21:04,080
直说吧，你俩在打什么主意？
Come on guys, what's the angle?

1448
01:21:04,380 --> 01:21:06,680
我们没其他意思，新手嘛，很想拿这个试手！
I've got no angle, we're new to this,
we're just so hyped!

1449
01:21:06,680 --> 01:21:10,100
我们想买1千5百万互换，做空2A级
We wanna do fifteen million
in swaps on the Double-A tranche

1450
01:21:11,180 --> 01:21:12,200
我是搞不懂你们
I don't understand!

1451
01:21:12,240 --> 01:21:14,180
你俩愿意买多少就买多少
You can buy as much
Double-A tranches as you want!

1452
01:21:16,820 --> 01:21:18,580
那就4千万做空2A吧
Forty million against the Double-A

1453
01:21:19,200 --> 01:21:21,740
哥们，你愿意买多少我都卖给你
Brother, I would sell you as much as you want!

1454
01:21:21,740 --> 01:21:24,000
我知道我在买啥，你想卖吗？
I understand perfectly Bob!
Want the deal?

1455
01:21:26,240 --> 01:21:28,420
好啊，我没问题
That's cool, that's alright with me!

1456
01:21:36,080 --> 01:21:37,440
他走了
He's gone!

1457
01:21:39,500 --> 01:21:41,940
别这样，快停下来
don't do that!
Stop, Stop!

1458
01:21:42,460 --> 01:21:44,140
别闹了！查理！
Stop that!
-Charlie!
Wooooh!

1459
01:21:44,180 --> 01:21:46,280
停下来，你俩！
Stop it, Stop!

1460
01:21:48,120 --> 01:21:48,760
怎么了
What?

1461
01:21:50,700 --> 01:21:52,780
知道你们刚刚做了什么事吗
Do you have any idea what you just did?

1462
01:21:52,940 --> 01:21:55,460
我俩做成了一辈子一遇的买卖啊，应该庆祝
Come on, we just made the deal of our lifetime,
we should celebrate!

1463
01:21:55,560 --> 01:21:57,420
你俩在赌未来美国经济崩溃
You just bet against the American economy!

1464
01:21:57,520 --> 01:21:58,900
是啊！没错！
Fuck yeah we did!
-Yeah!

1465
01:21:58,900 --> 01:22:01,080

  • 这意味着
  • 太棒了
    Which means!
    Fuck yeah! OH!

1466
01:22:01,080 --> 01:22:03,100
这意味着，如果我们赌对了
Which means...
If we're right....

1467
01:22:04,960 --> 01:22:06,560
如果我们是对的，人们会无家可归
If we're right, people lose homes!

1468
01:22:06,800 --> 01:22:07,900
大批人会失业
people lose jobs!

1469
01:22:08,340 --> 01:22:10,660
大家没了退休存款，养老钱都没了！
People lose retirement savings,
people lose pensions!

1470
01:22:11,560 --> 01:22:13,980
我最讨厌这行的就是这一点
人不是数字！
You know what i hate about fucking banking!
It reduces people to numbers!

1471
01:22:13,980 --> 01:22:15,940
那我告诉你，失业率上升1%
Here's a number!
Every one percent unemployment goes up,

1472
01:22:15,940 --> 01:22:17,940
死亡人数会增加4万人，明白吗
40 thousand people die!
Did you know that?!

1473
01:22:17,940 --> 01:22:20,200

  • 知不知道？
  • 不，我们不了解
    Did you know that?
    -No, I didn't know that!

1474
01:22:22,000 --> 01:22:23,400
我们就是有点兴奋
We were just excited!

1475
01:22:25,840 --> 01:22:27,400
还跳舞就太过分了
Just don't fucking dance!

1476
01:22:28,780 --> 01:22:30,120
好吧 你要去哪
Alright!
-Where are you going?

1477
01:22:34,900 --> 01:22:36,720
我心里有点发毛了
Whoah, I just got really scared!

1478
01:22:38,660 --> 01:22:40,040
今天表现挺好嘛
First of all, great show today!

1479
01:22:40,640 --> 01:22:41,400
简直好极了
You were terrific!

1480
01:22:41,580 --> 01:22:43,780

  • 谢谢 - 你嘴不严实还真是我出乎意料
    Thank you!
    -Your big mouth was a revelation!

1481
01:22:43,960 --> 01:22:45,140
理解万岁
I appreciate that!

1482
01:22:45,720 --> 01:22:47,380
你们担心有人暗箱操作？
You worried you,
and your swaps were getting played?

1483
01:22:47,380 --> 01:22:50,160
现在这个机会，让你们去看看对手是谁
Well, this is an opportunity for you
to meet who you're betting against!

1484
01:22:50,880 --> 01:22:52,640
别觉得自己正义，就不听不进他的话
Try not to get too righteous
and listen a little!

1485
01:22:52,640 --> 01:22:54,200
好吧，这人是谁？
OK, Fine!
Who is this guy?

1486
01:22:54,200 --> 01:22:55,940
24K级的混蛋
A real solid-gold asshole!

1487
01:22:56,140 --> 01:22:57,140
我是CDO经理
I'm a CDO-manager

1488
01:22:57,480 --> 01:22:59,560

  • 还有这个职位？
  • 在哈丁顾问公司就有
    A CDO-manager?
    -Yup, at Harding Advisors

1489
01:23:00,460 --> 01:23:03,660
我从没想过CDO还有什么要管的
I didn't realize that there
was anything to manage with CDO's

1490
01:23:04,300 --> 01:23:05,480
不奇怪
Oh, well.

1491
01:23:06,280 --> 01:23:10,160
我们筛选进入CDO投资组合的证券
监控背后的资产情况
We select the securities that go into
the CDO-portfolio and monitor the assets

1492
01:23:10,160 --> 01:23:12,020
我主要做美林证券的CDO
I do most of Merrill-Lynch's CDO's

1493
01:23:12,020 --> 01:23:14,520
你是代表投资人还是美林？
Do you represent the investors or Meryll-Lynch?

1494
01:23:15,220 --> 01:23:15,840
投资人啊！
The investors!

1495
01:23:16,200 --> 01:23:17,040
是嘛
You do.

1496
01:23:17,520 --> 01:23:18,700
可是…
Yeah!
-But...

1497
01:23:19,100 --> 01:23:21,620
美林不可能白白送客户给你
Meryll-Lynch isn't gonna send you
any customer unless you put

1498
01:23:21,820 --> 01:23:24,060
除非你把美林也包含进CDO
Merrill-Lynch's bonds in your CDO....

1499
01:23:25,620 --> 01:23:26,480
问得好
Good question!

1500
01:23:26,480 --> 01:23:28,340
你可以假设…美林和我
Let's just assume Merrill and I have a...

1501
01:23:29,080 --> 01:23:30,360
我们关系不错
we have a good relationship

1502
01:23:31,100 --> 01:23:32,920
你和美林证券关系不错？
You have a good relationship with Merrill-Lynch?

1503
01:23:33,440 --> 01:23:34,600
我们一起做买卖
We've been doing business together

1504
01:23:34,600 --> 01:23:36,100
所以你选出的CDO
And so the CDO's..

1505
01:23:36,560 --> 01:23:37,460
这些CDO
that you create

1506
01:23:37,760 --> 01:23:40,080
都是最高品质的
are, are, are, of the highest quality

1507
01:23:40,660 --> 01:23:41,520
最有价值的
and the highest of value!

1508
01:23:41,520 --> 01:23:43,100

  • 那是当然
  • 那是当然…
    Absolutely!
    -Absolutely!

1509
01:23:43,820 --> 01:23:46,920
你不担心正在上升的断供率吗？
Are you at all concerned
about the rising default-rates?

1510
01:23:49,340 --> 01:23:54,580
我个人不觉得CDO有风险
I assume no risk for this produce myself Mark

1511
01:23:55,060 --> 01:23:56,020
好吧
Okay!

1512
01:23:58,020 --> 01:23:59,200
那我直说吧
So let me get this straight

1513
01:23:59,380 --> 01:24:00,500
银行联系你
The bank calls you up

1514
01:24:01,720 --> 01:24:03,260
让你帮忙卖他们的证券
They give you the bonds they wanna sell

1515
01:24:03,260 --> 01:24:06,420
再送给你客户，给你钱让你运行公司
They give you clients,
they give you money to run your business,

1516
01:24:07,200 --> 01:24:08,860
提成也少不了你的
Give you fat fee's for doing so

1517
01:24:09,040 --> 01:24:11,380
你居然还代表投资者？
but you represent the investors?

1518
01:24:12,460 --> 01:24:13,380
你是这个逻辑吗？
Is that right?

1519
01:24:13,440 --> 01:24:14,020
是啊
Yeah!

1520
01:24:14,780 --> 01:24:16,320
但我不在美林大厦里工作
But we're not in the Merrill-Lynch building!

1521
01:24:16,460 --> 01:24:17,960

  • 那你在哪
  • 我在新泽西
    OK, where are you?
    -We're in New Jersey!

1522
01:24:18,400 --> 01:24:19,460
开车20分钟就到了
You're twenty minutes away!

1523
01:24:20,060 --> 01:24:22,340
5分钟就行了，如果你坐直升飞机
Five, if you use the helicopter!

1524
01:24:23,820 --> 01:24:24,900
挺好玩吧
That's funny eh?

1525
01:24:25,240 --> 01:24:26,500
真是好玩
That's hilarious!

1526
01:24:29,520 --> 01:24:30,460
不好
Oh boy!

1527
01:24:31,100 --> 01:24:32,720
你老板要发作了
Your boss is about to explode!

1528
01:24:33,420 --> 01:24:35,180
他太想搞明白了，发作不了
No, he's too curious to explode!

1529
01:24:35,240 --> 01:24:36,560
等等，你再解释一下
Hold on, say that again!

1530
01:24:36,560 --> 01:24:38,680
两个CDO，A包含着B的一部分
CDO A, has parts of CDO B

1531
01:24:38,960 --> 01:24:43,100
然后B也包含A一部分，然后AB被放到C里面
And CDO B, has parts of CDO A
and then they both get put inside CDO C.

1532
01:24:43,260 --> 01:24:44,840
对，这就是CDO平方
Yeah and that one is called CDO square!

1533
01:24:45,120 --> 01:24:47,180
CDO的CDO
A CDO of a CDO!

1534
01:24:47,720 --> 01:24:48,160
明白？
Right?

1535
01:24:48,720 --> 01:24:52,280
CDO还能包含你互换押注剩下的部分
And then there's CDO's made up of the opposite sides of the bet you made with the swaps

1536
01:24:52,600 --> 01:24:54,780
我们叫它，合成CDO
We call them, synthetic CDO's

1537
01:24:54,780 --> 01:24:58,700
你说啥？合成CDO？真是乱套了
What did you just say? Synthetic CDO's?
That is fucking crazy!

1538
01:24:58,900 --> 01:24:59,900
没有乱，这很赚钱
It's not!
It's awesome!

1539
01:25:02,200 --> 01:25:05,940
他脸都气红了，像枪战游戏里的坏蛋
His face is starting to boil
He looks like the bad guy from DOOM

1540
01:25:09,680 --> 01:25:11,060
那我们假设
Alright, let's say...

1541
01:25:12,040 --> 01:25:15,560
你有5千万美元的次级贷
You have a pool of 50 million in sub-prime loans

1542
01:25:15,740 --> 01:25:17,980
那赌在上面的钱，能有多少？
How much money could be out there betting on it

1543
01:25:18,900 --> 01:25:22,620
在你的合成CDO和互换里？就按今晚的行情
In your synthetic CDO's and swaps?
right now! Tonight!

1544
01:25:23,240 --> 01:25:24,240
5千万的次级贷…
50 million.. hmm..

1545
01:25:26,540 --> 01:25:27,680
10亿美元吧
a billion dollars

1546
01:25:27,860 --> 01:25:28,520
啥？
What?

1547
01:25:29,800 --> 01:25:32,980
如果麦克最早发现的房贷证券是火柴的话
If the mortgage-bonds that
Michael Burry discovered were the match...

1548
01:25:34,440 --> 01:25:38,420
房贷市场衍生出的证券规模有多大
How much bigger is the market for insuring mortgage bonds
than for actual mortgages?

1549
01:25:39,700 --> 01:25:40,780
大概20倍吧
About twenty times!

1550
01:25:40,960 --> 01:25:42,900
如果房贷证券是火柴
If the mortgage bonds were the match...

1551
01:25:43,240 --> 01:25:45,700
那CDO就是煤油弄湿的破布
Then the CDO's were the kerosene soaked rags.

1552
01:25:45,820 --> 01:25:48,420
而合成CDO，就是原子弹
Then the synthetic CDO was the atomic bomb

1553
01:25:48,420 --> 01:25:50,940
启动按钮被一个酒鬼总统把持着
with a drunk president holding his finger over the button

1554
01:25:51,180 --> 01:25:53,540
这个时刻，在这破餐馆
It was at that moment in that dumb restaurant

1555
01:25:53,540 --> 01:25:56,580
马克表情像傻了一样
他头一次意识到
with that stupid look on his face
that Mark Baum realized

1556
01:25:56,720 --> 01:25:59,280
整个世界经济可能要崩溃了
The whole world economy might collapse!

1557
01:26:02,740 --> 01:26:03,760
我知道你们在想什么
And i know what you're thinking!

1558
01:26:04,900 --> 01:26:06,980
合成CDO又是什么鬼
What the fuck is a synthetic CDO?

1559
01:26:09,520 --> 01:26:15,100
好，让行为经济学之父塞勒博士
和莎琳娜解释一下
Well, here's Dr. Thaler, father of behavioral economics,
and Selena Gomez to explain!

1560
01:26:15,300 --> 01:26:16,800
莎琳娜，国际流行乐坛巨星
Selena Gomez International Pop Star

1561
01:26:07,300 --> 01:26:09,500
塞勒博士 美国经济学会主席 芝加哥大学教授
行为决策研究所所长 改变了经济学家研究人类的方式
“行为经济学”之父
Richard H. Thaler

1562
01:26:16,960 --> 01:26:18,460
合成CDO是这么回事
Ok, so here's how a synthetic CDO works!

1563
01:26:19,620 --> 01:26:22,360
就说我赌1千万在21点牌局的这手上
Let's say i bet ten million on a black jack hand.

1564
01:26:22,460 --> 01:26:27,220
1千万，大概就是一个房贷证券的规模
Ten million, because this hand is
to represent a single mortgage bond

1565
01:26:30,440 --> 01:26:32,660
好的，莎琳娜这手牌不错
Okay, Selena has a pretty good hand here!

1566
01:26:32,660 --> 01:26:36,660
两张明牌18点，庄家7点
莎琳娜拿到了一手好牌
showing eighteen, dealer showing seven
That's a really good hand for Selena!

1567
01:26:37,120 --> 01:26:39,600
赢面大，实际这手牌赢的概率
Good odds,
In fact her chances of winning this hand

1568
01:26:39,780 --> 01:26:41,100
是87%
are eighty-seven percent

1569
01:26:41,220 --> 01:26:42,820
就是说我很可能赢了
So, my odds are good

1570
01:26:43,200 --> 01:26:44,420
现在我势头正旺
I'm on a winning streak

1571
01:26:44,740 --> 01:26:47,320
大伙也想要趁势赚钱
Everybody in this place
wants to get in on the action

1572
01:26:47,600 --> 01:26:48,660
我怎么会输呢？
How could i lose right?

1573
01:26:48,880 --> 01:26:50,620
这是个经典的思维缺陷
Now this is a classic error

1574
01:26:50,620 --> 01:26:53,300
篮球里面叫“热手谬误”
In basketball it's called the Hot-Hand-Fallacy

1575
01:26:53,740 --> 01:26:55,860
一个人连续投篮进了
A player makes a bunch of shots in a row

1576
01:26:56,160 --> 01:26:58,200
大伙会觉得下一次也会进
People are sure they're gonna make the next one

1577
01:26:58,380 --> 01:27:00,480
人们认为，发生过的事情
People think, whatever is happening now

1578
01:27:00,480 --> 01:27:03,120
在以后也会继续出现
Is gonna continue to happen into the future!

1579
01:27:03,260 --> 01:27:04,960
在房地产泡沫时期
During the real-estate boom

1580
01:27:05,000 --> 01:27:06,820
房价一直在涨啊涨
Markets were going up and up!

1581
01:27:06,820 --> 01:27:08,540
人们会觉得房价不可能跌下来
and people thought they would never go down!

1582
01:27:08,640 --> 01:27:12,400
旁观的人心想，赌边注的话，也不会输
People who are watching and think
that I won't lose will make a side-bet

1583
01:27:12,680 --> 01:27:14,860
这就是第一个合成CDO
Now this, is the first synthetic CDO

1584
01:27:14,920 --> 01:27:15,920
我喜欢莎琳娜
I love Selena Gomez!

1585
01:27:16,780 --> 01:27:18,240
我和你赌1千5百万，赌她赢
I'll bet you fifteen million, she wins!

1586
01:27:18,240 --> 01:27:19,940
赔率设3：1
And I'll give you 3-to-1 odds!

1587
01:27:20,360 --> 01:27:21,360
3：1？
3-to-1 odds?

1588
01:27:22,040 --> 01:27:23,680
好，我和你赌
Okay, I'll take that bet!

1589
01:27:24,380 --> 01:27:25,100
现在
Now!

1590
01:27:25,440 --> 01:27:29,540
旁边还有人对他俩的赌局再对赌
somebody else is gonna wanna make
a bet on the outcome of their bet!

1591
01:27:29,550 --> 01:27:30,260
1千五百万赌她赢
15 million she wins!

1592
01:27:30,260 --> 01:27:33,060
形成了第二个合成CDO
That will lead to synthetic CDO number two!

1593
01:27:34,160 --> 01:27:37,800
我和你赌2亿，赌那个戴眼镜的女士赢
I bet you 200 million,
that lady in the glasses, wins that bet!

1594
01:27:38,360 --> 01:27:39,600
她是赢面很大
She probably will win!

1595
01:27:39,960 --> 01:27:41,300
所以我很可能大赚一笔
So i want great pay-off!

1596
01:27:41,500 --> 01:27:42,560
我就来赔率20：1吧
How about 20-to-1?

1597
01:27:42,880 --> 01:27:43,700
成交
Deal!

1598
01:27:44,220 --> 01:27:48,820
这样的过程循环往复
合成CDO越来越多
And this will go on and on,
with more and more synthetic CDO's

1599
01:27:48,900 --> 01:27:52,620
原始的1千万投资
And we can transform
an original ten million dollar investment

1600
01:27:52,840 --> 01:27:54,560
滚雪球成为了几十亿的赌注
Into billions of dollars

1601
01:27:55,640 --> 01:27:56,840
你没事吧
You're Ok?

1602
01:27:58,380 --> 01:27:59,420
不舒服
No!

1603
01:28:00,940 --> 01:28:02,820
我感觉很噁心
I actually feel pretty sick!

1604
01:28:07,920 --> 01:28:10,160
我得先走了
So I'm going to leave

1605
01:28:11,480 --> 01:28:13,420
马克，你心里认为我就是寄生虫是吧
You think I'm a parasite don't you mister Baum?

1606
01:28:14,540 --> 01:28:16,360
可社会待见我这样的人
But apparently society values me,

1607
01:28:17,000 --> 01:28:18,200
非常待见
very much.

1608
01:28:19,140 --> 01:28:21,340
不信的话，咱们算算
In fact, Let's do this!

1609
01:28:22,820 --> 01:28:24,320
我先告诉你
I'll tell you,

1610
01:28:24,560 --> 01:28:26,180
我现在身价多少
how much I'm worth.

1611
01:28:26,780 --> 01:28:28,700
你再告诉我你身价多少
You tell me how much you're worth!

1612
01:28:29,740 --> 01:28:32,020
你还真是个…
You are an incredibly...

1613
01:28:32,400 --> 01:28:34,180
浑身铜臭味的混蛋
big piece of shit!

1614
01:28:40,340 --> 01:28:43,640
买空他做的所有CDO，再投入5个亿
Short everything that guy has touched,
I want half a billion more in swaps

1615
01:28:44,440 --> 01:28:46,680
你确定吗？万一不行你就破产了
Sure about that?
The collateral calls could bankrupt you!

1616
01:28:46,680 --> 01:28:47,340
我确定
Yeah!

1617
01:28:47,580 --> 01:28:48,760
你要去哪儿
Where are you going?

1618
01:28:48,760 --> 01:28:52,960
我得去轮盘赌那里恢复一下粉碎的三观
I am going to try to find moral redemption
at the roulette table

1619
01:30:03,120 --> 01:30:05,100
情况比我设想的还要糟
Things are worse than I thought

1620
01:30:06,760 --> 01:30:09,040
这次我真觉得经济要崩溃了
I honestly think the economy might collapse!

1621
01:30:09,280 --> 01:30:12,540
你这么说都说了几年了
You've been saying that
the system is broken for years Mark

1622
01:30:14,060 --> 01:30:15,380
这次是怎么了
Why are you so shocked?

1623
01:30:18,140 --> 01:30:21,600
我再挖空心思，也想不到里面这么黑
It's more twisted, than i could have imagined!

1624
01:30:22,040 --> 01:30:24,060
你总是对自己有很高的道德要求
You love to be the virtuous one

1625
01:30:24,200 --> 01:30:25,880
我做这行，在这个染缸里
I'm a banker, I'm a part of it!

1626
01:30:25,880 --> 01:30:27,000
你总是这样
You always have Mark!

1627
01:30:27,700 --> 01:30:30,360

  • 不想沾染脏东西
  • 我也被改变了，我也被改变了
    Like you're untainted
    -It changed me, it changed me!

1628
01:30:30,360 --> 01:30:31,920
我变成了…
Into a person,

1629
01:30:31,920 --> 01:30:34,260
再也不能和别人交心的人
who is not able to reach out to someone

1630
01:30:34,260 --> 01:30:36,080
我兄弟当时很痛苦，真的很痛苦
He was in pain, my brother was in real pain!

1631
01:30:36,120 --> 01:30:39,400
没有十全十美的办法来帮他
There is no perfect way to help

1632
01:30:42,220 --> 01:30:44,020
难受就说出来
Say it, it's scary

1633
01:30:44,760 --> 01:30:46,040
停下来
So, Stop!

1634
01:30:46,360 --> 01:30:47,980
别想着拯救世界了
Trying to fix the world!

1635
01:30:47,980 --> 01:30:49,120
他对说我
He told me

1636
01:30:49,120 --> 01:30:52,580
你不是圣人，圣人不会住在公园大道的富人区里
You're not a saint,
saints don't live on Park Avenue!

1637
01:30:52,640 --> 01:30:53,960
那时他就有不好的想法
That he was having bad thoughts.

1638
01:30:54,020 --> 01:30:57,140
你得去接受自己的喜怒哀乐
像我们普通人一样
Just feel the feelings,
like the rest of us!

1639
01:30:57,240 --> 01:30:58,460
我当初怎么帮他的…
My first response...

1640
01:30:59,500 --> 01:31:01,840
第一反应是给他钱
Was, to offer him some money.

1641
01:31:01,840 --> 01:31:03,960
我他妈的只会给钱！
I offered him fucking money!

1642
01:31:09,980 --> 01:31:12,440
他最后脸都摔烂了
His face was so smashed!

1643
01:32:10,540 --> 01:32:12,640
bgm 《By Demons Be Driven》by Pantera
bgm: By Demons Be Driven, by Pantera

1644
01:32:39,640 --> 01:32:40,500
麦克
Michael?

1645
01:32:41,080 --> 01:32:42,520

  • 麦克？ - 我在
    Michael?
    -Yes, Yes!

1646
01:32:42,520 --> 01:32:44,220

  • 你没事吧？ - 没事，亲爱的
    Is everything Ok?
    -Yes honey!

1647
01:32:44,860 --> 01:32:45,440
真的？
Sure?

1648
01:32:45,440 --> 01:32:46,640
宝贝放心吧
Yeah baby!

1649
01:32:48,540 --> 01:32:49,700
没事了
All fine, hehe!

1650
01:32:58,980 --> 01:33:01,560
至所有的投资人，你们也知道
To all investors, as you may know,

1651
01:33:02,720 --> 01:33:06,480
我们的协议允许我，在市场运行脱轨的时候
Our agreement allows me,
to take extraordinary measures

1652
01:33:06,480 --> 01:33:08,780
采取极端的措施
When markets aren't functioning properly

1653
01:33:09,940 --> 01:33:11,820
我现在有理由相信
I currently have reason to believe

1654
01:33:11,820 --> 01:33:15,600
房贷证券市场是个骗局
The mortgage-bond market is fraudulent

1655
01:33:18,160 --> 01:33:22,520
为了保护各位的投资不受扭曲市场的影响
So, in order to protect investors from this fraudulent market

1656
01:33:23,100 --> 01:33:25,940
我决定禁止投资者撤资
I've decided to restrict investor withdrawals

1657
01:33:26,140 --> 01:33:28,120
后续情况请等待通知
Until further notice.

1658
01:33:28,120 --> 01:33:32,480
真诚的，麦克•贝利博士
Sincerely,
Dr. Michael J. Burry

1659
01:34:03,680 --> 01:34:05,680
我要起诉你
I'm suing.

1660
01:34:17,580 --> 01:34:19,080
Facebook壮大
Facebook grows

1661
01:34:20,580 --> 01:34:23,080
2007年4月16日，弗吉尼亚理工大学校园枪击案
2007 Apr 16, Virginia Tech Shooting

1662
01:34:29,580 --> 01:34:31,180
其实，人人都在内心深处
Everyone, deep in their hearts

1663
01:34:31,480 --> 01:34:33,580
企盼世界末日的到来
is waiting for the end of the world to come.

1664
01:34:33,680 --> 01:34:35,480
村上春树《1Q48》
Haruki Murakami, 1Q84

1665
01:34:50,960 --> 01:34:52,720
天哪，伙计，你能不能…
Oh my god dude, would you...

1666
01:34:52,920 --> 01:34:54,160
别老是换频道了
Please stop changing the channel

1667
01:34:54,160 --> 01:34:56,160

  • 要把我逼疯了 - 好吧
    It's been driving me crazy!
    -Fine!

1668
01:34:56,480 --> 01:34:58,600
就放商业新闻好了，谢谢
Just put the business-news on please. Thank you!

1669
01:34:58,600 --> 01:35:00,160
标准普尔指数提升3点
And the S&P picked up three points

1670
01:35:00,160 --> 01:35:00,960
小题大做！（2007年4月2日）
Jesus! (2007.Apr.2)

1671
01:35:00,960 --> 01:35:02,480
房贷市场崩溃还在继续
Mortgage Meltdown continues

1672
01:35:02,860 --> 01:35:05,540
曾经是领军企业，发放次级贷的
sub-prime mortgage-lender New Century Financial

1673
01:35:05,560 --> 01:35:08,180
新世纪金融公司申请破产
Once the industry-leader by the way, filed for bankruptcy

1674
01:35:08,340 --> 01:35:10,180
该公司马上…
The company immediately, Ahem!

1675
01:35:10,960 --> 01:35:12,240
我清一下嗓子
（电视：CNN 新世纪金融公司破产）
good time for my voice to go
(CNN New Century Bankrupt mortgage leander)

1676
01:35:12,240 --> 01:35:14,240
…裁员了3200人
Fired 3,200 workers

1677
01:35:14,440 --> 01:35:16,940
与三月相比，制造业指数仍在下滑
The manufacturing-index also fell off the month of march

1678
01:35:16,940 --> 01:35:18,180
开始了…
It's starting....

1679
01:35:18,180 --> 01:35:19,960
有专家提醒，经济增长可能会放缓
A warning that the economic growth could slow

1680
01:35:19,960 --> 01:35:22,780
相关机构声称，次级贷资产价格仍在上涨
The institute of sub-prime assets also reported a rise of prices

1681
01:35:22,780 --> 01:35:24,480
我必须打电话给我妈了
I'm gonna call my mom!

1682
01:35:26,920 --> 01:35:29,480
经济放缓的主要原因
The principle source of the slowdown of economic growth

1683
01:35:29,800 --> 01:35:34,240
每次我都帮你挡着，马克
Time, and time, and time again
I've brought you back, Mark

1684
01:35:34,240 --> 01:35:35,540
我们认识都17年了
We've know each-other for seventeen years

1685
01:35:35,540 --> 01:35:36,920
她嗓门这么大，真是厉害
She 's got some lungs on her I'm impressed!

1686
01:35:39,240 --> 01:35:40,540
看她生气我还挺高兴
Can't help but enjoy it.

1687
01:35:41,720 --> 01:35:45,000
绝对不可能，大银行哪有这么蠢
There's no fucking way, there's no fucking way,
that the big banks are that stupid!

1688
01:35:45,920 --> 01:35:47,440
再见 凯茜！
Bye Kathy!

1689
01:35:52,460 --> 01:35:53,580
怎么说
Well?

1690
01:35:54,680 --> 01:35:58,360
凯茜说，我们应该卖掉做空的互换
Kathy thinks it would be a good idea if we sold our shorts

1691
01:35:58,400 --> 01:35:59,160
老话重提
What else is new?

1692
01:35:59,160 --> 01:36:01,500
她说摩根士丹利会买下来
And she said that Morgan-Stanley will buy them

1693
01:36:01,540 --> 01:36:02,380
我操！
Holy shit!

1694
01:36:03,180 --> 01:36:04,020
你怎么说
What did you say?

1695
01:36:04,440 --> 01:36:06,260
我告诉她，我们啥都不卖
I told her we're not selling shit!

1696
01:36:09,060 --> 01:36:12,060
贝尔斯登清算了两家对冲基金
近期因次级贷损失惨重
Bear Stearns Liquidates Two Hedge Funds
After Massive Subprime Mortgage Losses

1697
01:36:12,260 --> 01:36:15,620
如果你需要2005年资料的话…
Ah, if you need the.. ehm,
Files from 2005

1698
01:36:16,280 --> 01:36:19,740
菲尔德先生的诉讼，只需要去年到现在的资料
Mister Field's suit is very specific to files from the past year

1699
01:36:20,040 --> 01:36:23,260
那出去吧！代我向劳伦斯问好，向他俩都问好
Good, then get out!
Say hi to Lawrence for me! and both do!

1700
01:36:27,140 --> 01:36:28,680
你一个礼拜都不能回我电话？
You can't call me back for a week?

1701
01:36:28,900 --> 01:36:30,540
我很抱歉，麦克
I'm so sorry Mike!

1702
01:36:31,180 --> 01:36:34,480
高盛的系统崩溃，我把很多消息都丢了
Goldman had a systems failure i lost a ton of messages!

1703
01:36:34,660 --> 01:36:38,500
美国银行说他们停电了
摩根士丹利说服务器崩溃了
B of A said they had a power outage,
And Morgan-Stanley said their server crashed!

1704
01:36:39,760 --> 01:36:41,020
这么凑巧！
That's weird!

1705
01:36:41,020 --> 01:36:44,200
我觉得不太可能
Meh, I will, I will call it, improbable

1706
01:36:45,280 --> 01:36:47,320
那你记录我们的资金量是多少
Where do you have our position marked?

1707
01:36:47,960 --> 01:36:49,520
和以前一样，麦克
I think it's the same Mike

1708
01:36:49,780 --> 01:36:52,360
什么？你能给我解释一下吗？
What? Can you explain that to me please?

1709
01:36:52,360 --> 01:36:55,160
被保的东西都毁灭了还不能用保险
H-H-H How can the value of an insurance-contract

1710
01:36:55,160 --> 01:36:59,360
那一个保险合同还叫什么保险合同？
Not be affected by the demise of the very thing it insures?

1711
01:36:59,360 --> 01:37:02,160
他们是独立的市场，两者并不总是相关
They're independent markets,
They're not always correlated!

1712
01:37:02,380 --> 01:37:05,740
我知道听起来奇怪
但是它们都是十分复杂的金融产品
I know it sounds odd,
but these are very complicated products!

1713
01:37:06,800 --> 01:37:08,580
它们本来就是相关的
They ARE correlated!

1714
01:37:08,580 --> 01:37:11,680
人们会没了房子，丢了工作，养老金…
They're gonna lose their houses,
They're gonna lose their jobs,
They're gonna lose their p..

1715
01:37:11,880 --> 01:37:14,080
发件人:贝尔斯登，报价和上次一样
Bear Stearns, Bid and ask are the same as last time.
No change.

1716
01:37:14,520 --> 01:37:15,940
你好好听我说！
Will you listen to me!

1717
01:37:16,680 --> 01:37:19,280
这次…就像资本主义终结一样严重
This is like.... The end of capitalism!

1718
01:37:19,440 --> 01:37:22,280
再次回到黑暗时代
This is like the dark ages all-over again!

1719
01:37:23,920 --> 01:37:27,240
我不想和我爸说话！
我也爱你，把你们的钱保护好！
I don't want to talk to dad!
Okay, I love you too, save your money!

1720
01:37:28,160 --> 01:37:31,440
她说我得去开治抑郁的药
抗焦虑的药要加倍
She says I need to be on Xanax,
and double my dose of Zoloft

1721
01:37:32,420 --> 01:37:36,200
我问贝尔斯登买我们做空的报价
他们说CDO价格还是没变
I asked Bear-Stearns to price our shorts
They tell me the CDO's still haven't moved

1722
01:37:36,240 --> 01:37:37,320
这帮人真是丧心病狂了
This is fucking insane!

1723
01:37:37,980 --> 01:37:41,040
这帮合伙骗子，应该进监狱！
You realize that?
These people are crooks and they should be in prison!

1724
01:37:41,960 --> 01:37:44,840
看看资产担保证券指数
CDO的价值已经是零了
Look at the ABX,
you can see that the CDO's are worth zero!

1725
01:37:44,840 --> 01:37:46,080
你知道他们想干啥吗
So you know what they're doing huh?

1726
01:37:46,080 --> 01:37:47,880
你知道他们想干啥吗
You know what they're doing right?
-Yeah!

1727
01:37:47,880 --> 01:37:49,060
他们之所以不买
They're not loading them...

1728
01:37:49,080 --> 01:37:50,900
是因为要卖出去自己的狗屎CDO
They're selling their dogshit CDO's

1729
01:37:50,900 --> 01:37:52,380
然后才能去另一家银行
Then they go to another bank

1730
01:37:52,380 --> 01:37:56,120

  • 做空自己的狗屎，再吃进去！
  • 天哪，咱们可以去找媒体了
    And short the shit, while they fucking sold it!
    -Whoo ho ho, Let's go to the press man!

1731
01:37:56,240 --> 01:37:59,460
这绝对是轰动新闻！谁会不愿意登
This is a massive story!
Who wouldn't publish it?

1732
01:38:00,460 --> 01:38:01,580
罗伯特•雷德福那样的！
（在《总统班底》中，罗伯特扮演的记者
在巨大压力下查出了水门事件的真相）
Robert Redford!

1733
01:38:01,580 --> 01:38:05,040

  • …再做空自己买下的
  • 我明白了，我明白了
    shorting the ones they buy
    -I got it, I got it!

1734
01:38:05,180 --> 01:38:06,800
我明白了
（华尔街日报 纽约美洲大道1211号）
I got it, I got it...
(Wall Street Journal, 1211 Avenue of the Americas)

1735
01:38:06,900 --> 01:38:08,240
我又能做什么？
（华尔街日报 纽约美洲大道1211号）
And what am I supposed to do?
(Wall Street Journal, 1211 Avenue of the Americas)

1736
01:38:08,820 --> 01:38:10,200
难道写一篇报道，题目就叫“我们都完蛋了”
Want me to write a piece called:
"We're all fucked!"

1737
01:38:10,460 --> 01:38:12,880
好啊，完美的题目
Yes!
That's a perfect title!

1738
01:38:13,220 --> 01:38:16,720
现在所有的银行都在转手这些垃圾证券
Right now, every bank in town is unloading these shit-bonds

1739
01:38:16,720 --> 01:38:18,520
让那些不了解内情的人买单
under un-suspecting customers

1740
01:38:18,520 --> 01:38:21,680
他们在卖出去之前是不会主动降价的
and they won't devalue them
until they get them off their books

1741
01:38:21,680 --> 01:38:26,260
这种犯罪程度在华尔街也是史无前例！
This level of criminality is unprecedented
even on fucking Wall-street!

1742
01:38:27,700 --> 01:38:28,760
杰米
Jamie...

1743
01:38:29,200 --> 01:38:30,520
我就坦诚的和你说吧
This is me being honest here okay.

1744
01:38:31,120 --> 01:38:33,160
我在华尔街建立关系网花了好几年
It took me years to build my relationships on Wall-street

1745
01:38:33,480 --> 01:38:35,040
没有银行或者评级机构…
No bank or ratings-agency

1746
01:38:35,540 --> 01:38:37,520
会傻到主动承认你俩所说的
Is gonna confirm a story like this

1747
01:38:37,520 --> 01:38:39,620
你俩的基金开在车库
just because it comes from two guys in a...

1748
01:38:40,380 --> 01:38:43,780
吵吵着世界末日就要来了，谁信
garage-band hedge-fund that thinks it's the apocalypse.

1749
01:38:46,420 --> 01:38:49,180
我还以为你是良心记者
真的，我一直都这么想
I thought you were for real Kathy
You know, I have to say, I really did!

1750
01:38:50,620 --> 01:38:52,660
杰米，你和我讲良心，我现在小孩3岁
Yeah Jamie, you try being for real with a three-year old

1751
01:38:52,660 --> 01:38:54,300
老婆也要交学费读硕士
and a wife getting her masters-degree

1752
01:38:54,920 --> 01:38:57,760
我不会因为你们瞎猜就把自己的名誉赔进去
I'm not gonna burn my reputation on your wild hunch

1753
01:39:01,700 --> 01:39:04,060
麻烦你俩跑一趟了，见到你们真他妈开心
Thanks for coming guys,
totally fucking awesome to see you!

1754
01:39:04,060 --> 01:39:06,580
我们也是，之前我就对你不爽
Yeah. I, Kathy I, I, I've always hated you

1755
01:39:06,580 --> 01:39:10,280
在大学里面你就这臭屁样儿
到现在了还是没改
Because you were a prick in college
and you are a prick today!

1756
01:39:10,960 --> 01:39:13,600
谢谢评价，那你还在和你妈一起住吗？
Thanks Charlie!
Still living with your mom?

1757
01:39:13,920 --> 01:39:15,560
查理，咱们走
Charlie, Come on!

1758
01:39:15,760 --> 01:39:17,760
我是马克•鲍姆，给我回电话！
It's Mark Baum again. Call me!

1759
01:39:18,040 --> 01:39:19,600
次级贷证券大跳水
Sub-prime bonds fell off a cliff

1760
01:39:19,760 --> 01:39:21,960
传闻有大批房贷断供
Rumor has it default-numbers are huge!

1761
01:39:22,000 --> 01:39:24,560
谁先拿到汇款数据了？估计是高盛
Who got the remittance data early?
I bet it's Goldman

1762
01:39:24,640 --> 01:39:26,120
真是帮倒忙
Nah, Fuck you very much!

1763
01:39:26,120 --> 01:39:29,160
杰瑞德，我这儿一团乱麻，咱们情况怎么样
Jared!
It's chaos down here, where are we?

1764
01:39:29,160 --> 01:39:32,580
“他哭泣了，再也没能让我征服的地方了”
（亚历山大大帝名言）
he wept for there are no more worlds to conquer

1765
01:39:34,040 --> 01:39:35,540
夏恩…
Shane...

1766
01:39:35,840 --> 01:39:37,280
夏恩！
Shane!

1767
01:39:38,660 --> 01:39:39,320
情况是
Well...

1768
01:39:39,640 --> 01:39:41,820
没人买CDO和房贷证券了
Nobody's buying CDO's and mortgage bonds anymore

1769
01:39:41,900 --> 01:39:45,480
人人都要买互换，这是华尔街现在最抢手的东西
And everybody wants swaps,
swaps are now the most popular product on the street

1770
01:39:45,580 --> 01:39:47,360

  • 对我们是好消息吧！
  • 是也不是
    That's good for us!
    -Yes, and no.

1771
01:39:47,360 --> 01:39:48,900
我听别人说…对方也从别处听说…
I heard from somebody, who heard from somebody

1772
01:39:48,900 --> 01:39:51,220
不行，亚历克斯，这里我占了
No Alex. No..... Sorry!

1773
01:39:55,000 --> 01:39:58,620
我听说摩根的本尼在证券部门损失惨重
Bennie Kreeger over at Morgan
is taking up some heavy losses in the bond-department

1774
01:39:58,820 --> 01:39:59,620
（国家银行因艰难处境发出金融预警）
Countrywide Financial Warns of "Difficult Conditions."

1775
01:39:59,740 --> 01:40:01,360
你所在的大船可能漏水了
Your shit might be taking on water

1776
01:40:02,380 --> 01:40:04,040
赶紧穿上救生衣跳船吧
Time to get our life-jacket and get out.

1777
01:40:04,040 --> 01:40:04,820
我的天
holy shit!

1778
01:40:04,960 --> 01:40:05,880
我就操了！
I'm jacked

1779
01:40:06,920 --> 01:40:08,100
我就操啊
I'm Jacked!

1780
01:40:08,100 --> 01:40:09,720
操得好爽
I'm jacked to the tits!

1781
01:40:10,320 --> 01:40:11,040
很好
Good!

1782
01:40:11,300 --> 01:40:14,100

  • 能体会到痛苦又兴奋的感觉吗
  • 我可不想
    Do you feel it?
    -No!

1783
01:40:19,560 --> 01:40:21,360
你听到什么了泰德
What'd you hear Ted?

1784
01:40:22,860 --> 01:40:23,700
开始了
It's happening

1785
01:40:24,120 --> 01:40:25,840
大伙都要买我们的互换
Everybody wants our swaps

1786
01:40:26,340 --> 01:40:27,780
凯茜让你去她办公室
Kathy's office is looking for you!

1787
01:40:28,800 --> 01:40:30,540
黑脸的又变白脸了
Singing a different tune now, aren't they?

1788
01:40:32,020 --> 01:40:32,980
情况不妙啊
That's not good.

1789
01:40:38,420 --> 01:40:39,200
以后再说吧
Maybe later.

1790
01:40:39,200 --> 01:40:42,620

  • 我没开玩笑
  • 你得开始脱身了
    No, no this isn't a joke
    -you gotta start unwinding...

1791
01:40:45,720 --> 01:40:46,560
我听着呢
Listening!

1792
01:40:44,000 --> 01:40:45,560
高盛来电
Goldman calling

1793
01:40:47,280 --> 01:40:48,480

  • 贝利博士？ - 是我
    Dr. Burry?
    -Yah!

1794
01:40:49,100 --> 01:40:50,480
我是高盛的迪伯•温斯顿
Deeb Winston, Goldman Sachs

1795
01:40:50,480 --> 01:40:51,900
我看了一下你的价位
Listen, I've been reviewing your position

1796
01:40:51,900 --> 01:40:54,140
想要和你讨论估值的情况，尽可能的公平
I wanted to discuss your marks,
make sure they're fair!

1797
01:40:54,140 --> 01:40:56,880
我想…你的意思是
Yeah, I, I, I thi, I think you mean..
That you've..

1798
01:40:57,440 --> 01:41:03,020
你已经做空了自己的仓位
这样你总算能认真评估我的互换了
secured a net-short position yourselves,
so you're free to mark my swaps accurately for once

1799
01:41:03,020 --> 01:41:05,120
现在对你们也有利
Because it's now in your interest to do so.

1800
01:41:07,900 --> 01:41:10,160
我…我不知道你要我怎么说
Ehm... I'm not sure what you want me to say

1801
01:41:10,160 --> 01:41:11,120
我想…
I think that....

1802
01:41:13,160 --> 01:41:14,740
你该说的都说了
I think you've already said it.

1803
01:41:23,000 --> 01:41:26,580
你告诉高盛的杰夫，我绝对不会转移基金
太扯淡了
You tell Jeff at Goldman that
I'm not transferring funds, this is bullshit!

1804
01:41:34,200 --> 01:41:35,380
回头再说
Okay, we'll talk later.

1805
01:41:36,360 --> 01:41:37,400
谢谢…
thank you...

1806
01:41:40,140 --> 01:41:42,580
谢谢你这么快就过来了
Thanks for coming so quickly Mark
-Yeah

1807
01:41:43,860 --> 01:41:46,760
我知道你听说了摩根有一些损失
I know you've been hearing rumblings
about some losses Morgan has suffered.

1808
01:41:46,760 --> 01:41:49,220

  • 恭喜你
  • 恭喜什么？
    -Congratulations
    On what?

1809
01:41:49,560 --> 01:41:50,160
噢
Oh!

1810
01:41:50,260 --> 01:41:51,160
吸奶器，凯茜已经怀孕了
Breast pump, indicating pregnant

1811
01:41:51,200 --> 01:41:51,840
谢谢
Thanks.

1812
01:41:52,120 --> 01:41:53,760
感觉挺好的吧
Ehm..
-Having fun?

1813
01:41:55,020 --> 01:41:56,580
还行！
Yes! He he!

1814
01:41:57,760 --> 01:41:59,220
是感觉不错
Tons!, Ehm....

1815
01:41:59,520 --> 01:42:01,080
我想告诉你
I just wanted you to know that ehm...

1816
01:42:02,560 --> 01:42:05,760
摩根是遭受了一些损失
但我们的流动资产还是很稳健
Yes, Morgan has suffered some losses,
but our liquidity is strong,

1817
01:42:05,760 --> 01:42:07,540
不需要再担心什么了
And there's no cause for concern!

1818
01:42:08,140 --> 01:42:10,580
那需要担心本尼吗？
Would Bennie Kreeger be concerned?

1819
01:42:11,400 --> 01:42:14,740
听人说他损失惨重
Because word on the street is
he took some pretty heavy losses

1820
01:42:16,920 --> 01:42:20,440
凯茜，别遮掩了，咱们都认识多少年了…
Kathy come on, we know each-other..
What's going on?

1821
01:42:21,660 --> 01:42:22,720
说吧…情况有多严重
How..how..how bad is this?

1822
01:42:23,040 --> 01:42:23,840
好吧
Ok...

1823
01:42:25,120 --> 01:42:30,420
在两年以前，摩根证券部门的克里格
也开始做空次级贷
Two years ago, Bennie Kreeger in Morgan's bond-department
also started shorting sub-prime housing

1824
01:42:30,420 --> 01:42:33,080

  • 20亿做空3B级
  • 本尼比我想的还要聪明啊
    Two billion in Triple-B's
    -Benny is smarter than i thought!

1825
01:42:33,080 --> 01:42:34,220
不，他一点也不聪明
No, he's not smart at all!

1826
01:42:34,640 --> 01:42:37,040
交的保费搭进去了其他利润
The premiums on the swaps ate into his desks profit

1827
01:42:37,160 --> 01:42:39,080
为了保住3B的做空
To cover his Triple-B shorts,

1828
01:42:39,120 --> 01:42:42,500
他卖了很多的A和2A的交换做保护，很多！
He sold a lot of A- and Double-A
swaps as protection, A lot!

1829
01:42:43,620 --> 01:42:45,860
他觉得，不可能A级的也会受影响
He believed that there was no way,
that they could be affected.

1830
01:42:47,320 --> 01:42:50,340
你该不会说是摩根士丹利卖给我们交换的吧
Tell me Morgan-Stanley doesn't
hold the contracts on these swaps

1831
01:42:53,740 --> 01:42:55,000
我的天
Holy shit

1832
01:42:56,000 --> 01:42:59,160
我一直都在找我们的对家是谁
All this time I've been trying to figure out
whom I've been betting against.

1833
01:42:59,740 --> 01:43:01,020
没想到是我们的母公司
And it's Morgan-Stanley

1834
01:43:02,280 --> 01:43:03,460
遭殃的是自己的公司
Which is me....

1835
01:43:05,640 --> 01:43:07,220
风险敞口有多少？30亿？
What's your exposure?
Three billion?

1836
01:43:08,980 --> 01:43:10,580
不可能超过40亿吧？
Please don't tell me it's more than four!

1837
01:43:10,820 --> 01:43:11,700
我不能回答你这问题
I can't answer that!

1838
01:43:12,480 --> 01:43:14,440
你可以说…
Yes you can answer that,
because...

1839
01:43:14,720 --> 01:43:18,080
我过来的时候，看到走廊上的人都在哭
I walk in here and people
are crying in your hallway

1840
01:43:19,580 --> 01:43:20,400
凯茜
Kathy..

1841
01:43:21,060 --> 01:43:24,140
你跟我说什么事儿都好
可什么事儿现在都不好！
You bring me in to tell me everything is fine,
and everything is not fine!

1842
01:43:24,820 --> 01:43:26,560
究竟现在是怎么了
What?
What is happening?

1843
01:43:28,820 --> 01:43:30,320
做多的敞口有…
Long exposure is...

1844
01:43:32,960 --> 01:43:34,320
150亿
fifteen billion

1845
01:43:40,840 --> 01:43:44,240

  • 我的老天爷，你在开玩笑吧！
  • 你总是说断供率不可能超过8%的！
    Jesus Christ, are you fucking kidding me?!
    -You kept saying defaults over eight percent were impossible!

1846
01:43:44,240 --> 01:43:46,680

  • 那样会有1百万人无家可归
  • 我的天
    -That there would be a million homeless
    Oh my god!

1847
01:43:47,760 --> 01:43:50,840
摩根和我们没有关系
Yeah, but we have nothing
to do with Morgan-Stanley

1848
01:43:53,360 --> 01:43:56,160
那你上破产法庭这么说去
Yeah... Just tell the bankruptcy-court

1849
01:43:56,780 --> 01:44:00,060
摩根破产，我们所有的钱都会转到
他们的资产负债表上
Morgan fails,
all our accounts go on their balance sheet

1850
01:44:00,240 --> 01:44:01,780
这也太疯狂了
That's just crazy!

1851
01:44:02,300 --> 01:44:05,380
摩根输了烂赌注，却让我们来还账？
Morgan makes a sucker's bet
and we pay their fucking gambling debt?

1852
01:44:06,380 --> 01:44:09,180

  • 做空摩根的股票！
    Short the bank's stocks!
    -Wait..

1853
01:44:12,960 --> 01:44:15,500
或者等市场一开始交易，就卖了我们的互换
Or we sell our swaps,
when the market opens

1854
01:44:16,780 --> 01:44:19,000
我们拿到奖金，我们的投资人拿到收益
We get our bonuses,
our investors get their profit

1855
01:44:19,320 --> 01:44:22,200
咱们能拿到一块钱里的三毛钱
至少能保命
We get... thirty cents on the dollar,
Not bad!

1856
01:44:22,520 --> 01:44:24,060
我们比这值3倍
We're three times that

1857
01:44:24,160 --> 01:44:25,940
要是买家市场都没了，就烂到手里了
Not if there's no market up to sell them in

1858
01:44:25,940 --> 01:44:28,020
不行，我不能把救生船送给这些人
Forget it, I'm not giving any lifeboats

1859
01:44:28,020 --> 01:44:30,260
马克，如果摩根垮了，到头来我们什么都没有了
Mark, if Morgan goes under,
we end up with nothing!

1860
01:44:30,440 --> 01:44:31,640
文尼
Vinnie...

1861
01:44:33,060 --> 01:44:34,580
别争了
Jesus, come on!

1862
01:44:34,920 --> 01:44:36,880
我说卖，咱们再卖
I say, when we sell

1863
01:44:40,600 --> 01:44:42,380
我知道你跟华尔街有私人恩怨
Look I get that this is personal for you,

1864
01:44:43,160 --> 01:44:46,540

  • 但是我们对投资人也要负责
  • 我们不需要负责
    But we have a fiduciary responsibility
    -No, no we don't!

1865
01:44:47,200 --> 01:44:49,000
我们负责？这里谁给别人负责？
Respons..?
Nobody is acting responsible!

1866
01:44:49,540 --> 01:44:51,840
操他妈的责任！跟我谈负责
Fuck responsibility!
Are you kidding me?

1867
01:44:52,980 --> 01:44:54,840
大银行的那些混蛋们，回头能…
The assholes at the big banks, are gonna take..

1868
01:44:54,880 --> 01:44:58,120

  • 你们点菜吗？
  • 我们在说正经事…别打扰
    You boys want menu's now?
    -We're talking!.. Please!

1869
01:44:58,500 --> 01:45:00,180
抱歉了
Excuse us!

1870
01:45:02,140 --> 01:45:05,020
我们要等着，耐心等着
We are going to wait,
and we are going to wait

1871
01:45:05,360 --> 01:45:10,140
等到他们知道疼了，开始流血了才行
We are going to wait, until they feel the pain,
until they start to bleed

1872
01:45:11,080 --> 01:45:12,020
这才是我想要的结果
That is what I want

1873
01:45:12,020 --> 01:45:14,360
那我们的客户怎么办
我们在拿他们的钱冒风险
Yeah, but what about our clients,
they've been trusting us with their savings.

1874
01:45:14,360 --> 01:45:15,700
我说卖，我们再出手
I say when we sell!

1875
01:45:15,700 --> 01:45:17,020
这不是你公报私仇的时候
This isn't about you!

1876
01:45:17,020 --> 01:45:20,480
我说卖，再出手！
Hey, hey, HEY!
I say when we sell!

1877
01:45:22,280 --> 01:45:23,360
好吧，那听你的
Whatever you say Mark

1878
01:45:30,640 --> 01:45:32,300
伙计你看新闻了吗
Dude, did you hear the news?

1879
01:45:34,320 --> 01:45:38,600
两个贝尔投资的房贷对冲基金爆仓了
Ok, so not only did two mortgage hedge-funds
backed by Bear-Stearns go belly-up

1880
01:45:38,600 --> 01:45:42,140
而且现在贝尔还被集体诉讼
but now, there's a class-action lawsuit against Bear

1881
01:45:42,140 --> 01:45:43,120
坏了
Holy shit!

1882
01:45:43,120 --> 01:45:45,760
跟我做！用力！用力！
Let's go! Push, Push!

1883
01:45:45,800 --> 01:45:48,680

  • 那怎么了？贝尔会破产吗？
  • 我们不能冒这个险
    So? What? Bear could really collapse here?
    -That's a risk we really shouldn't take!

1884
01:45:48,720 --> 01:45:51,220
我们有80%的互换，是从贝尔那里买的
But eighty percent of our swaps is Bear

1885
01:45:51,380 --> 01:45:52,640
我们可能陪个精光
We lose everything!

1886
01:45:52,640 --> 01:45:54,260

  • 先生！- 马上就好
    Hey Sir!
    -One second!

1887
01:45:54,360 --> 01:45:58,040

  • 这是我的看法
  • 我们买了这东西，却不知道怎么卖
    That's my opinion!
    -Aw, we bought these fucking things,
    and we have no clue how to sell them

1888
01:45:58,040 --> 01:45:59,560
是啊，所以我们得找本帮忙
I know, we have to get Ben to do it!

1889
01:45:59,560 --> 01:46:01,320
我一直给他打电话，他也不回
I've been trying to call him,
but he won't get back to me

1890
01:46:01,320 --> 01:46:05,380
现在他和老婆一家人在度假，在英国！
No, he's on vacation with his wife's family!
They're in England!

1891
01:46:05,840 --> 01:46:06,720
什么？
What?!

1892
01:46:08,920 --> 01:46:11,320
黑马酒吧，英国南部港口艾克斯茅斯
The Black Horse Pub, Exmouth England

1893
01:46:11,520 --> 01:46:12,520
（本：现在出手还太早）
too soon for that

1894
01:46:14,780 --> 01:46:15,840
本，你能听清吗
Hello, Ben? Hey!

1895
01:46:15,840 --> 01:46:17,900

  • 你们好
  • 我们在，你能听清吗
    Guys?
    -Yeah, we're here, can you hear us?

1896
01:46:18,060 --> 01:46:20,380
我听的清楚
Guys?-
We hear ya, Yeah!

1897
01:46:20,680 --> 01:46:23,000
我这里电话和网络信号都不好
I probably got cell-phone and WiFi-service

1898
01:46:23,740 --> 01:46:26,040
居然要这样卖掉2亿的证券
I'm trying to sell 200 million dollars worth of securities

1899
01:46:26,660 --> 01:46:27,620
就在这酒吧
In a pub...

1900
01:46:28,140 --> 01:46:29,220
闻着绵羊味儿
smells like sheep

1901
01:46:29,420 --> 01:46:30,200
你能行的
You can do this!

1902
01:46:30,300 --> 01:46:33,640
我不想给你压力
但你搞不定的话，我们就全赔光了
I don't want to pressure you Ben, but if you don't pull this off, we lose everything!

1903
01:46:34,580 --> 01:46:37,120
看看瑞士瑞信银行的胃口如何
Ok, let's see what Credit Suisse's appetite is.

1904
01:46:42,980 --> 01:46:46,060
我是棕地基金，我想要抛售我的信用违约互换
This is Brownfield Fund,
I'm wanting to unload my credit default swaps.

1905
01:46:46,500 --> 01:46:47,420
好的，你们有多少
Alright, what've you got?

1906
01:46:48,120 --> 01:46:49,940
大概有20个2A级别的CDO
Twenty Double-A tranches of CDO's

1907
01:46:50,420 --> 01:46:52,860
好吧…这些现在行情不太好
Eh yes.. but these eh...
these are pretty bad

1908
01:46:52,860 --> 01:46:54,300
是啊，全是垃圾
Absolutely, they're complete shit!

1909
01:46:55,260 --> 01:46:58,160

  • 你的…
  • 面值是2亿50万
    What's your.. what's your?
  • Face-value is 205 million

1910
01:46:58,560 --> 01:46:59,260
美元
Dollars

1911
01:46:59,800 --> 01:47:01,920
那我们能…以40收购
Alright, we could, we could go to forty

1912
01:47:02,440 --> 01:47:03,760
不行，至少要1亿
No, we want at least a hundred million

1913
01:47:03,760 --> 01:47:05,080
1个亿？
A hundred million?

1914
01:47:05,380 --> 01:47:07,520
你是毒品贩子，还是搞银行的？
Who are you a drug-dealer or a banker?

1915
01:47:07,660 --> 01:47:09,860
你要是银行家，就立马给我滚蛋
Cause if you're a banker you can fuck right off!

1916
01:47:10,260 --> 01:47:12,560
我不知道能不能坐庄，直接说你的最好报价
I don't know if we can make a market,
just give me your best price!

1917
01:47:12,560 --> 01:47:15,320
哎呦！1个亿还嫌不够
Yeah, Check! a hundred million worth,
and aim higher!

1918
01:47:15,320 --> 01:47:16,400
我觉得我们期望差太多
I think we're far apart

1919
01:47:17,080 --> 01:47:19,120
你要是不想买，就直接挂断
Look if you don't want to deal, just hang up.

1920
01:47:22,020 --> 01:47:23,420
跟我料想的一样
That's what I thought!

1921
01:47:24,300 --> 01:47:25,380
9千万
Ninety million

1922
01:47:25,440 --> 01:47:26,600
7千万
Seventy!

1923
01:47:27,660 --> 01:47:28,660
8千5百万
Eighty-five

1924
01:47:29,480 --> 01:47:31,600

  • 7千8百万 - 8千4百万
    Seventy-eight
    -Eighty-four!

1925
01:47:32,340 --> 01:47:34,180

  • 7千8百万 - 8千4百万
    Seventy-eight
    -Eighty-four!

1926
01:47:36,460 --> 01:47:37,660
我是贝利博士
It's Dr. Burry

1927
01:47:38,200 --> 01:47:41,140
看来金融危机马上来了
（全国断供率超过12%）
Looks like the collapse of the financial sector is imminent
(national default rates above 12 percent)

1928
01:47:42,120 --> 01:47:43,780
我以现在的仓位出手
Start to sell my position

1929
01:47:44,380 --> 01:47:45,700
23亿
2.3 billion

1930
01:47:47,620 --> 01:47:49,060
当然，我可以等着
Sure, I'll hold!

1931
01:47:51,560 --> 01:47:52,560
亲爱的劳伦斯
Dear Lawrence

1932
01:47:52,760 --> 01:47:55,500
你在赛恩资本的总盈利为4.89亿
Your profits totaling 489 million from Scion Capital

1933
01:47:55,700 --> 01:48:00,500
已经转存到你的账户了
have been deposited into your account

1934
01:48:02,700 --> 01:48:04,300
不用谢。
You're welcome.

1935
01:48:06,000 --> 01:48:08,000
德意志银行纽约分行, 4千7百万
Deutsche bank new york. 47 million

1936
01:48:13,380 --> 01:48:14,820
最终我还是对的
So I was right.

1937
01:48:15,720 --> 01:48:17,480
我被人喷了两年…
I took a rash of shit for two years. But...

1938
01:48:18,620 --> 01:48:20,240
但是我是对的
I was right! And...

1939
01:48:21,040 --> 01:48:22,140
所有人都错了！
Everyone was wrong!

1940
01:48:23,500 --> 01:48:24,800
我还拿到了奖金支票
And yeah i got a bonus-cheque for it

1941
01:48:25,600 --> 01:48:26,620
来告我啊
Sue me!

1942
01:48:27,280 --> 01:48:28,100
随便了
You know.

1943
01:48:28,980 --> 01:48:31,640
这钱是不少，我能感到你们心里有看法
It's a lot of money!
I get it, I can feel you judging me.

1944
01:48:32,480 --> 01:48:33,440
很明显嘛
That's palpable

1945
01:48:34,520 --> 01:48:35,560
可是呢
But hey!

1946
01:48:36,360 --> 01:48:38,360
我从没说过我是这个故事里的英雄人物
I never said I was the hero of this story

1947
01:48:39,220 --> 01:48:40,380
你好啊
Hey, hey babe!

1948
01:48:40,680 --> 01:48:42,120
情况怎么样？
How are we looking?

1949
01:48:42,920 --> 01:48:44,280
…八…万
...ace... goi..

1950
01:48:45,220 --> 01:48:46,140
什么？
S-Sorry?

1951
01:48:46,640 --> 01:48:48,860

  • 是8千万 - 8千万成交了
    No, eighty million!
    -Ok, so eighty million!

1952
01:48:48,860 --> 01:48:50,800
8千万，8千万，这挺好的是吧
Eighty million, eigthy million,
that's good right?

1953
01:48:51,000 --> 01:48:55,180
8千万很好，谢谢你，非常感谢！
Eighty is great, eighty is great,
thank you, thank you so much!

1954
01:48:55,860 --> 01:48:57,260
钱都汇到瑞士联合银行了
Most of them went to UBS

1955
01:48:57,780 --> 01:48:58,800
你们运气相当不错
You're very lucky!

1956
01:48:59,240 --> 01:49:02,900
今天法国把国内最大的货币市场账户冻结了
The largest bank in France froze it's
customer's money-market accounts today

1957
01:49:02,900 --> 01:49:03,900
风暴已经传到欧洲了
This thing is hitting Europe!

1958
01:49:04,540 --> 01:49:05,920
希腊和爱尔兰已经完了
Greece and Iceland are finished

1959
01:49:06,500 --> 01:49:07,560
西班牙正在遭殃
Spain is teetering

1960
01:49:07,840 --> 01:49:09,620
真的假的？这么严重
Are you serious? Fuck!

1961
01:49:09,780 --> 01:49:11,680
本，等你回家给我们打电话
Ben call us when you get home!

1962
01:49:11,680 --> 01:49:14,680
不过放电话之前请等一下
But hey, before you go...
I'm just wondering...

1963
01:49:15,900 --> 01:49:16,740
我一直想问…
Uhm..

1964
01:49:18,400 --> 01:49:20,240
你为什么要和我们做这件事
Why did you do this with us?

1965
01:49:21,660 --> 01:49:25,840
你并不需要…当然我们很感谢你…但
You didn't have to, and eh..
you know, thank you, but, eh....

1966
01:49:26,620 --> 01:49:27,460
为什么
Why?

1967
01:49:28,180 --> 01:49:30,560
你们说想要发财，现在你们有钱了
You guys said you wanted to get rich!
-Now you're rich!

1968
01:49:36,560 --> 01:49:38,360
2008年3月14日
2008 March 14

1969
01:49:38,640 --> 01:49:43,360
房产和银行还在持续出血
只有一家大单做空的还拒绝出售
As the housing-markets and banks continues to hemorrhage,
only one of the big shorts refused to sell.

1970
01:49:43,460 --> 01:49:45,680
马克•鲍姆的空头（演讲人 格林•斯潘）
Keynote Speaker Alan Greenspan
Mark Baum

1971
01:49:48,340 --> 01:49:52,300
这简直比咱们导演的还要好
他在会议上和布鲁斯•米勒同台讨论
So it was beyond perfect, when he was asked
to speak at a conference opposite Bruce Miller

1972
01:49:52,300 --> 01:49:54,160
著名的乐观投资人
Famous bullish investor

1973
01:49:55,180 --> 01:49:56,620
他和马克辩论以后
After he and Mark had their debate

1974
01:49:56,620 --> 01:50:00,800
格林斯潘，整个金融危机的总设计师
还要继续讲话
Alan Greenspan, one of the architects of
the whole crisis, was scheduled to speak

1975
01:50:01,220 --> 01:50:04,220
马克办公室的人都来了
把朋友也邀请过来了
Everyone in Mark's office showed up,
even invited friends!

1976
01:50:05,240 --> 01:50:08,960
这就像金融界的阿里和福尔曼的拳击世纪对决
This... was the Ali versus Foreman of the financial world

1977
01:50:08,960 --> 01:50:10,800
现实主义者对战傻瓜
Realists versus the fools

1978
01:50:11,420 --> 01:50:13,780
在我们以为事情不可能更完美的时候
你敢相信…
And if it seems almost too perfect...
trust me!

1979
01:50:13,960 --> 01:50:14,920
这事儿发生了！
This happened!

1980
01:50:18,220 --> 01:50:19,320
贝尔股价 47
Bear at 47

1981
01:50:17,040 --> 01:50:18,080
欢迎大家的光临
Welcome everyone!

1982
01:50:19,500 --> 01:50:22,740
请让我们热烈欢迎
Please... Give a generous welcome to...

1983
01:50:23,900 --> 01:50:26,640
布鲁斯•米勒和马克•鲍姆
Mister Bruce Miller.... and Mark Baum

1984
01:50:44,420 --> 01:50:46,060
系好安全带看戏了！
Strap yourself in!

1985
01:50:47,200 --> 01:50:52,100
你们有些人可能知道
贝尔斯登刚刚接受了一笔摩根的贷款
So as some of you may know, Bear-Stearns
has just received a loan from J.P. Morgan

1986
01:50:52,100 --> 01:50:55,020
当然我们等些时间才能看到市场的反馈
Of course we gonna have to wait to see
how the markets react

1987
01:50:55,020 --> 01:50:58,560
但这事本身就能打消对贝尔银行的担心了
But that should lay to rest
any concerns about the bank self!

1988
01:50:58,860 --> 01:51:02,980
我理解，所以你本人不会出售你的2亿股票了
No, I take it, you have no plans to sell your
two-hundred million in Bear stock

1989
01:51:03,920 --> 01:51:07,200
当然不，实际上等我们聊完
我还要再买进更多
No, as a matter of fact, when we're done here,
I'll probably go buy some more!

1990
01:51:08,880 --> 01:51:12,320
而对立观点…马克•鲍姆
For the opposing view...
Mister Baum

1991
01:51:14,840 --> 01:51:16,760
我得站起来说
I gotta stand for this

1992
01:51:19,700 --> 01:51:20,820
好的，大家好
Okay, Hi!

1993
01:51:21,560 --> 01:51:23,720
我们公司投资理念很简单
My firm's thesis is pretty simple

1994
01:51:24,400 --> 01:51:27,960
华尔街把最初刘易斯房贷证券的好点子
Wall-street took a good idea:
Lewis Raneiri's mortgage-bonds

1995
01:51:28,240 --> 01:51:32,460
变成了一个欺诈和愚蠢做成的原子弹
And turned it into an atomic bomb
of fraud and stupidity

1996
01:51:32,880 --> 01:51:35,560
现在原子弹马上就要毁灭全球经济了
That's on it's way to decimating the world economy

1997
01:51:35,600 --> 01:51:38,180
你说的还挺像那么回事似的
How do you really feel?

1998
01:51:38,300 --> 01:51:42,120
我没想到你现在还能笑的出来
我要是你的话可不这么乐观
I'm glad you still have a sense of humor!
I wouldn't if I were you!

1999
01:51:42,660 --> 01:51:45,840
认识我的人都知道
Now, Anyone who knows me, knows..

2000
01:51:46,440 --> 01:51:49,080
我是对别人的错误直言不讳的
That I have no problem telling someone they're wrong.

2001
01:51:49,180 --> 01:51:51,280
（2008年3月14, 贝尔股票41点，39点）
(2008 Mar 14) Bear at 41, Bear at 39

2002
01:51:51,480 --> 01:51:52,720
你快看，股价还在往下泄
It's a disaster, it just says here

2003
01:51:52,720 --> 01:51:54,960

  • 但这一辈子，我是头一次…
  • 我的天
    But for the first time.. in my life..
    -Holy fuck!

2004
01:51:55,340 --> 01:51:57,160
…真心笑不出来
It's not so enjoyable

2005
01:51:57,980 --> 01:52:00,100
现在的美国充斥着欺诈
We live in an era of fraud in America

2006
01:52:00,660 --> 01:52:02,960
不仅是银行，连政府也参与其中
Not just in banking, but in government

2007
01:52:03,560 --> 01:52:05,300
教育，宗教
Education, religion

2008
01:52:05,920 --> 01:52:07,800
视频，连棒球都作假
Food, even baseball

2009
01:52:08,860 --> 01:52:10,360
真正让我担心的
What bothers me...

2010
01:52:10,720 --> 01:52:13,480
并不是说欺诈不道德
Isn't that .. fraud is not nice

2011
01:52:13,560 --> 01:52:15,740
也不是说欺诈很邪恶
Or that fraud... is mean

2012
01:52:15,860 --> 01:52:18,340
而是说，在过去一万五千年的历史中
It's that .. for fifteen thousand years

2013
01:52:18,780 --> 01:52:21,900
欺诈和短视就从来没有成功过
Fraud and short-sighted thinking
have never ever worked

2014
01:52:22,300 --> 01:52:23,100
贝尔股价 37
Bear at 37

2015
01:52:23,140 --> 01:52:25,800

  • 一次都没有
  • 天哪
    Not once, eventually
    -Jesus

2016
01:52:25,800 --> 01:52:27,520

  • 总会失败
  • 已经降到37了
    You'll get caught
    -We're at thirty-seven

2017
01:52:28,260 --> 01:52:30,760

  • 行情要下跌了
  • 这哪是下跌，这是暴跌
    Things go south!
    -It's fucking plummeting man, it's fucking plummeting!

2018
01:52:30,760 --> 01:52:32,460
我们难道都忘记教训了吗？
When the hell did we forget all that?

2019
01:52:37,240 --> 01:52:39,860
我还以为我们有希望，真的这么以为过
I thought we were better than this, I really did

2020
01:52:39,960 --> 01:52:40,760
还有
And..

2021
01:52:41,020 --> 01:52:44,920
虽然我们不够明智
但是我也不觉得自己多么正义，多么骄傲
The fact that we're not,
doesn't make me feel all-right and superior!

2022
01:52:45,020 --> 01:52:47,620
我只是为大家感到…深深的悲哀
It makes me feel... Sad.

2023
01:52:47,780 --> 01:52:51,240

  • 我每次刷新，股价都在掉
  • 垮掉算了
    Everytime i fucking hit refresh it's dropping man
    -And hope it does goes down!

2024
01:52:51,440 --> 01:52:51,940
贝尔股价 35
(Bear at 35)

2025
01:52:51,960 --> 01:52:53,520
看笑话的心情…
And as fun as it is to watch..

2026
01:52:53,920 --> 01:52:56,340
看这些自大愚蠢的华尔街人士大错特错
Pompous dumb Wall-streeters be wildly wrong

2027
01:52:56,340 --> 01:52:58,280
您也一样，大错特错！
And you are wrong sir!

2028
01:52:59,580 --> 01:53:01,800
我只知道，最后…
I just know that at the end of the day

2029
01:53:03,060 --> 01:53:07,880
将是普通百姓来承受这些痛苦
Average people are going to be the ones,
that are going to have to pay for all of this.

2030
01:53:08,700 --> 01:53:11,020

  • 兴亡总是百姓遭殃
  • 32点
    Because they always, always do!
    -Thirty-two?

2031
01:53:11,020 --> 01:53:13,380

  • 真是32点
  • 这是跌破的节奏
    Shit! It's thirty-two
    -Yeah it's fucking tanked man

2032
01:53:13,720 --> 01:53:15,200
这是我的拙见，谢谢大家
That's my two cents, thank you!

2033
01:53:16,840 --> 01:53:18,340
我得去德意志银行去看热闹
I'm gonna drop a deuce at Deutsche

2034
01:53:18,420 --> 01:53:20,000
我们的乐观派有什么回应吗
Does our bull have a response?

2035
01:53:21,480 --> 01:53:24,000
在华尔街的整个历史上
Only that in the entire history of Wall-street,

2036
01:53:25,240 --> 01:53:29,300
从没有投资银行失败，除非因为犯罪被牵连
No investment-bank has ever failed,
unless caught in criminal activities.

2037
01:53:29,880 --> 01:53:33,220
我的回应是坚持！我认为贝尔前景光明
So, yes!
I stand by my Bear-Stearns optimism.

2038
01:53:33,900 --> 01:53:35,560
米勒先生，打扰了！一个小问题
Mister Miller, I'm sorry!
quick question!

2039
01:53:36,460 --> 01:53:40,540
刚才你们正在谈话的时候
贝尔的股票已经跌落了38%
From the time you guys started talking,
Bear-Stearns' stock is falling more than thirty-eight percent

2040
01:53:41,500 --> 01:53:42,480
你还要再买入吗？
Would you still buy more?

2041
01:53:42,640 --> 01:53:44,400
当然
Yeah, sure!

2042
01:53:45,000 --> 01:53:46,380
我当然要买入，为什么不买
Of course i'd buy more, why not?

2043
01:53:47,320 --> 01:53:48,840
当场打脸
Boom!

2044
01:53:51,700 --> 01:53:56,580

  • 天哪 - 糟了
  • 我们第一部分的讨论就结束了
    Jesus Christ! - Oh no!
    That concludes the first part of our presentation

2045
01:53:58,400 --> 01:54:04,720
下面我们有请，传奇的前美联储主席
格林斯潘
Up next, we have the legendary, former,
chairman of the FED, Alan Greenspan!

2046
01:54:05,440 --> 01:54:07,280
大伙
Folks!

2047
01:54:16,580 --> 01:54:23,480
贝尔斯登和国家银行先后破产
现在轮到雷曼兄弟了
First Bear Stearns collapses, then Countrywide.
Now Lehman Brothers

2048
01:54:23,780 --> 01:54:29,320

  • …雷曼兄弟的员工…
  • 华尔街的大公司股票跌到零
    ... employees of Lehmann Brothers today,
    -as the Wall-street giant's stock went to zero!

2049
01:54:29,320 --> 01:54:31,680
纽约银行的形象毁于一旦
the collapse of the venerable New York Bank

2050
01:54:31,680 --> 01:54:35,560
之后将是几个月的市场动荡
（2008年9月15日）
Follows a tumultuous few months of market volatility
2008 Sep 15

2051
01:54:35,760 --> 01:54:38,260
我们担心世界经济…
and fear for the world economy...

2052
01:54:38,380 --> 01:54:39,980
我得去里面看看
I gotta see inside

2053
01:54:40,880 --> 01:54:41,520
怎么进去？
How?

2054
01:54:43,160 --> 01:54:43,600
来吧
Come on

2055
01:54:44,840 --> 01:54:47,900
我电话忘到办公室了，门卡也扔了
I left my phone in the office,
I threw my pass out already,

2056
01:54:47,900 --> 01:54:51,980

  • 能用你的吗？
  • 爱用就用，我才不管
    Do you mind if i take your pass? Borrow it?
    I don't give a shit anymore, you can do what you want!

2057
01:54:53,500 --> 01:54:55,000
雷曼兄弟
Lehman Brothers

2058
01:54:59,640 --> 01:55:04,500

  • 直接上班车，别对媒体说话
  • 18年了，我就落了这么个结果
    Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the press!
    -So that's it? After eighteen years!

2059
01:55:04,500 --> 01:55:10,340
还赶我走，我愿意怎么干就怎么干
Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the press!
-I just leave? That's just fucking great, I can talk to whomever the hell I want!

2060
01:55:10,360 --> 01:55:12,680
别对媒体说话
Do not talk to the press!

2061
01:55:12,680 --> 01:55:16,660
直接上班车，别对…
Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the

2062
01:55:18,480 --> 01:55:20,640
晚上想一起吃个饭吗？
Hey look, you want to get a bit tonight?
There's this ehm...

2063
01:55:21,080 --> 01:55:24,340
下东城那边开了古巴餐馆，可以去…
This new Cuban place just opened
at the Lower East Side, so I suppose we could..

2064
01:55:24,340 --> 01:55:25,680

  • 是吗 - 是啊
    Ah really?
    -Yeah!

2065
01:55:26,580 --> 01:55:27,360
咱们俩
You and I?

2066
01:55:28,160 --> 01:55:30,880

  • 也带上大伙吧
  • 好主意
    Yeah and eh.. other people
    -That sounds nice!

2067
01:55:31,040 --> 01:55:33,000

  • 我很想去，谢谢你邀请我
  • 总算打电话了
    Yeah, I would like that, thank you very much!
    -Finally!

2068
01:55:33,500 --> 01:55:34,520
马克
Mark, Hey!

2069
01:55:35,280 --> 01:55:36,200
这里已经血流成河了
It's a bloodbath up here

2070
01:55:36,580 --> 01:55:39,200
摩根股票贬值一半，跌倒23，10
Morgan's stock has lost half its value,
it's down to 23,10

2071
01:55:39,200 --> 01:55:42,560
这是跌破的趋势，我想和你谈谈脱身的事
It's in a free-fall decline,
so I wanted to talk to you about pulling their money

2072
01:55:43,000 --> 01:55:45,100
现在不把钱撤出来就没机会了
I mean... It's now or never Mark!

2073
01:55:45,940 --> 01:55:47,000
我们要出手了！
We gotta sell!

2074
01:55:50,440 --> 01:55:51,220
马克！
Mark!

2075
01:55:53,320 --> 01:55:54,520
马克，你听到了吗
Mark, do you hear me?

2076
01:55:54,520 --> 01:55:58,720
语音信箱1，您有15条留言
Mailbox #1, You have fifteen messages.

2077
01:56:00,420 --> 01:56:03,740
麦克我联系不上你
你能方便的时候尽快回电话吗
Mike I can't seem to get a hold of you,
could you please call me at your earliest convenience?

2078
01:56:05,940 --> 01:56:08,660
我是杰夫，你现在还要买股票？
It's Jeff, I.. eh.. You're buying stocks?

2079
01:56:08,660 --> 01:56:11,220
现在是股市最低点，你太离谱了
The market is at an all-time low, this is crazy!

2080
01:56:12,100 --> 01:56:14,220
我和我妻子是在网上认识的
I met my wife on Match.com

2081
01:56:14,900 --> 01:56:18,560
我的交友资料说我是个医学院学生
只有一只眼能用
My profile said that I'm a medical student
with only one eye

2082
01:56:18,900 --> 01:56:20,240
不懂社交
An awkward social manner,

2083
01:56:20,840 --> 01:56:24,020
助学贷款还有14.5万要还
and 145 thousand dollars in student loans

2084
01:56:25,100 --> 01:56:26,000
她的回信是
She wrote back...

2085
01:56:26,740 --> 01:56:28,500
我找的就是你这样的
You're just what I've been looking for!

2086
01:56:29,320 --> 01:56:32,780
她的意思是我很坦诚
那我也对你们开诚布公
She meant honest, so let me be honest...

2087
01:56:33,060 --> 01:56:37,420
房地产危机是金融史上最大的机会
The housing-crisis represents
the greatest financial opportunity

2088
01:56:37,420 --> 01:56:39,700
但赚钱并不像我想象的那样简单
Making money is not like i thought it would be.

2089
01:56:40,660 --> 01:56:47,420
做交易…杀死了生命中对我最重要的那部分
这部分和做交易无关
This business... Kills the part of life that is essential!
The part, that has nothing to do with business

2090
01:56:50,580 --> 01:56:55,720
在过去两年，我内心感觉到，黑暗的东西在自我吞噬
For the past two years, my insides have felt,
like they're eating themselves.

2091
01:56:56,360 --> 01:56:58,020
我曾经尊敬过的人
All the people I respected,

2092
01:56:58,980 --> 01:57:01,400
现在再也不理我了
won't talk to me anymore

2093
01:57:01,740 --> 01:57:03,140
除了通过律师来找我
Except through lawyers.

2094
01:57:07,440 --> 01:57:08,300
人们…
People...

2095
01:57:09,500 --> 01:57:13,300
总希望有权威来告诉他们如何来选择价值
但他们选择权威
Want an authority to tell them
how to value things, but they chose this authority

2096
01:57:14,180 --> 01:57:17,580
并不是基于事实情况，或者成就
not based on facts or... results

2097
01:57:19,040 --> 01:57:23,920
他们这样选，只是因为这些人看起来很权威
说出了他们想听的话
They chose it because it seems
authoritative...and familiar!

2098
01:57:23,980 --> 01:57:24,940
可是…
And...

2099
01:57:25,760 --> 01:57:29,080
我从未盲从过大众
I'm not, and never have been.... familiar

2100
01:57:31,580 --> 01:57:32,200
所以…
So..

2101
01:57:33,600 --> 01:57:38,560
我得到了严肃的结论，我必须关闭基金
So I've come to the solemn realization
that I must close down the fund

2102
01:57:39,460 --> 01:57:41,840
真诚的，麦克•贝利博士
Sincerely, Michael J. Burry MD.

2103
01:58:02,040 --> 01:58:04,540
盈利489% 赛恩净值
489% SCION VALUE

2104
01:58:09,740 --> 01:58:12,140
总盈利 26.9亿
TOTAL PROFIT 2.69 Billion

2105
01:58:42,440 --> 01:58:44,260
这和我想象的不一样
This isn't how I pictured it

2106
01:58:46,420 --> 01:58:48,440

  • 你以为是什么样的
  • 反正不是这样
    What do you think you'd find?
    -I don't know

2107
01:58:50,520 --> 01:58:52,560
人人都做个成年人
Grown-ups

2108
01:58:55,920 --> 01:58:57,080
马克，你听着吗
Mark, are you there?

2109
01:59:00,300 --> 01:59:00,860
马克
Mark?

2110
01:59:01,420 --> 01:59:05,080
财政部长和美联储主席刚刚离开白宫
Paulson and Bernanke just left the White House.

2111
01:59:09,900 --> 01:59:11,680
可能政府要出手了
There's going to be a bail-out

2112
01:59:13,700 --> 01:59:14,820
不出手不行啊
Well, they had to!

2113
01:59:16,040 --> 01:59:16,500
是吧
Right?

2114
01:59:17,580 --> 01:59:19,580

  • 我们用担保兑付房贷
  • 这些人早就知道
    We paid for mortgages with collaterals
    -They knew!

2115
01:59:20,060 --> 01:59:22,720
ATM机回头会取不出钱来的
他们必须阻止这种情况发生
Cash would have stopped coming out the ATM,
they had to back-stop this

2116
01:59:23,580 --> 01:59:28,340
这些银行家知道政府会用纳税人的钱保他们
他们不是愚蠢，他们只是不在乎
They knew the tax-payers would bail them out,
they weren't stupid, they just didn't care!

2117
01:59:28,540 --> 01:59:30,260
是啊，他妈的一帮骗子
Yeah, 'cause they're fucking crooks!

2118
01:59:31,860 --> 01:59:34,120
但是走着瞧吧，肯定会有人进监狱的
But, at lest we're gonna see some of them go to jail.

2119
01:59:36,320 --> 01:59:37,300
是吧？
Right?

2120
01:59:37,700 --> 01:59:39,420
大银行会被拆分
We need to gonna have to break up the banks

2121
01:59:41,100 --> 01:59:44,240

  • 不可能再为所欲为
  • 我不知道，我不知道
    The party is over!
    -I don't know, I don't know...

2122
01:59:47,420 --> 01:59:53,440
我总觉得，几年之内
人们还是会和以前经济危机一样
I have a feeling, that in a few years, people are gonna doing,
what they always do when the economy tanks.

2123
01:59:54,480 --> 01:59:57,540
责怪移民和穷人拖累了他们
They will be blaming immigrants and poor people.

2124
01:59:57,900 --> 01:59:59,040
但是马克错了！
But Mark was wrong!

2125
02:00:00,400 --> 02:00:05,080
接下来的几年，几百个银行和评级高管进了监狱
In the years that followed,
hundreds of bankers and rating-agency's executives went to jail.

2126
02:00:05,080 --> 02:00:07,260
证券交易委员会被政府彻查
The SEC was completely overhauled

2127
02:00:07,580 --> 02:00:10,400
议会也迫于压力不得不拆分大银行
and congress had no choice, but to break up the big banks

2128
02:00:10,400 --> 02:00:13,020
进一步规范房贷和金融衍生品市场
and regulate the mortgage and derivative industries

2129
02:00:17,820 --> 02:00:19,220
上面开玩笑啦！
Just kidding!

2130
02:00:19,500 --> 02:00:21,780
银行把人们投资的钱拿走
Banks took the money
the American people gave them

2131
02:00:21,840 --> 02:00:24,120
用来给他们自己开巨额奖金
and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses

2132
02:00:24,120 --> 02:00:26,280
然后贿赂议会，来驳回激进的改革
and lobby the congress to kill big reform

2133
02:00:26,640 --> 02:00:28,860
然后再把锅甩到移民和穷鬼身上
and then they blamed immigrants and poor people

2134
02:00:29,080 --> 02:00:30,420
这次，连教师也跟着被指责
and this time even teachers!

2135
02:00:32,340 --> 02:00:35,460
这些都说完做完以后，只有一个银行家被关了监狱
And when all was said and done,
only one single banker went to jail

2136
02:00:36,280 --> 02:00:37,220
这个倒霉蛋！
This poor schmuck!

2137
02:00:37,480 --> 02:00:40,420
瑞士瑞信银行的卡里姆
Kareem Serageldin from Credit Suisse

2138
02:00:40,420 --> 02:00:42,540
他在房贷证券中损失了几十亿
He hit a few billion in mortgage-bond losses

2139
02:00:42,680 --> 02:00:45,840
但对金融危机的大银行来说
这些损失都是平常事儿
Something most of the big banks
did on a good day during the crisis

2140
02:00:47,700 --> 02:00:49,080
马克，我们能出手了吗
Mark, can we sell now?

2141
02:00:50,980 --> 02:00:52,920
现在基金能回收10亿
I mean the fund will almost make a billion dollars

2142
02:00:54,100 --> 02:00:55,820
你能清算出2亿来
You'll clear two-hundred mill Mark!

2143
02:00:56,960 --> 02:00:58,700
可是…如果我们出手
You know... once we sell..

2144
02:00:59,800 --> 02:01:01,260
最终和他们又有什么不一样
We'll be just like the rest of them

2145
02:01:02,020 --> 02:01:02,960
你知道我的意思
You know that!

2146
02:01:03,360 --> 02:01:04,860
不一样，我们不是坏人
No we're not, we're not the bad guys here!

2147
02:01:05,240 --> 02:01:09,700
我们没有利用美国人
想要有个房子的梦想来诈骗
we didn't defraud the American people
and prey on their dreams of owning a home

2148
02:01:09,840 --> 02:01:10,780
像他们那样
Like they did!

2149
02:01:12,380 --> 02:01:15,000
现在出手能打得他们找牙
Now we get to kick em in the teeth!

2150
02:01:20,020 --> 02:01:21,340
10亿美元
a billion dollars

2151
02:01:23,660 --> 02:01:24,440
是的
That's right!

2152
02:01:24,880 --> 02:01:27,260
但是我们必须尽快平仓
否则可能拿不回钱了
But we gotta close out our position,
or it could be zero

2153
02:01:28,140 --> 02:01:30,800
机不可失，时不再来，马克
I- I- It's now or never, Mark

2154
02:01:40,300 --> 02:01:41,400
好吧
Okay.

2155
02:01:45,360 --> 02:01:46,380
全卖出去！
Sell it all!

2156
02:01:55,080 --> 02:01:57,880
等金融动荡尘埃落定
When the dust settled form the collapse

2157
02:01:57,900 --> 02:02:00,680
总共有5万亿美元消失不见
包括养老金，房地产…
5 trillion dollars in pension money, real estate value

2158
02:02:00,780 --> 02:02:04,180
…401K退休福利，存款和证券。
401k, savings, and bonds had disappeared.

2159
02:02:04,280 --> 02:02:07,480
8百万人失业，6百万人无家可归
8 million people lost their jobs,6 million lost their homes.

2160
02:02:07,580 --> 02:02:11,480
这还只是美国的情况
And that was just in the USA.

2161
02:02:14,680 --> 02:02:17,680
马克•鲍姆的妻子，辛西娅说
Mark Baum's wife, Cynthia, says mark actually

2162
02:02:17,780 --> 02:02:21,280
马克在金融危机之后变得谦和了
became gracious after the collapse and

2163
02:02:21,380 --> 02:02:24,180
再也不对人说“我早就告诉过你”了
never said "I told you so" to anyone

2164
02:02:24,280 --> 02:02:27,580
他的手下丹尼、文尼和伯特…
Danny,Vinny and Porter all still

2165
02:02:27,680 --> 02:02:30,580
还在曼哈顿经营一家基金
run a fund together in Manhattan...

2166
02:02:30,680 --> 02:02:32,880
公司旁边就有松久寿司店
...where there is a Nobu.

2167
02:02:36,500 --> 02:02:38,900
查理和杰米试图去…
Charlie Geller and Jamie Shipley attempted

2168
02:02:39,000 --> 02:02:41,200
起诉信用评级机构
to sue the ratings agencies

2169
02:02:41,300 --> 02:02:43,400
所有的律所都嘲笑他们太天真
but were laughed out of all law offices.

2170
02:02:43,500 --> 02:02:45,600
杰米还在经营棕地基金
Jamie still runs Brownfield

2171
02:02:45,700 --> 02:02:47,600
但是查理离开了纽约
but Charlie left New York

2172
02:02:47,700 --> 02:02:49,800
在北卡罗来纳州的夏洛特安家立业
to live in Charlotte and start a family

2173
02:02:49,900 --> 02:02:52,700
本现在和妻子有一个大果园自给自足
Ben Rickert now lives with his wife on a large orchard.

2174
02:02:52,800 --> 02:02:55,100
他们保存了很多种子
They have plenty of seeds.

2175
02:02:59,500 --> 02:03:01,600
麦克•贝利，几次去联系政府
Michael Burry contacted the government serveral times

2176
02:03:01,700 --> 02:03:03,800
看看是否有人愿意采访他
to see if anyone wanted to interview him

2177
02:03:03,900 --> 02:03:05,800
去了解他对金融系统的看法
to find out how he know the system

2178
02:03:05,900 --> 02:03:07,400
为什么只有他提前预测到了金融危机
would collapse years before anyone else.

2179
02:03:07,500 --> 02:03:09,000
但从没有人回过他电话
No one ever returned his calls.

2180
02:03:09,100 --> 02:03:11,200
可是他本人被审讯过4次
But he was audited four times

2181
02:03:11,300 --> 02:03:14,000
被联邦调查局查账
and questioned by the FBI.

2182
02:03:16,500 --> 02:03:18,600
他现在唯一在做的小型投资
The small investing he still does

2183
02:03:18,700 --> 02:03:21,000
只关注一种商品：
is all focused on one commodity:

2184
02:03:21,100 --> 02:03:23,900
淡水
water

2185
02:03:28,500 --> 02:03:31,600
2015年开始，很多的大银行发售十亿规模的
In 2015, several large banks began selling billions

2186
02:03:31,700 --> 02:03:34,800
“定制分级机会投资”
in something called a "bespoke tranche opportunity."

2187
02:03:34,900 --> 02:03:37,200
据彭博新闻的分析
Which,acoording to Bloomberg News

2188
02:03:37,300 --> 02:03:39,900
这就是CDO改了个名字
is just another name for a CDO.

2189
02:03:46,000 --> 02:03:49,000
《大卖空》
THE BIG SHORT

2190
02:03:49,500 --> 02:03:52,000
bgm 《When The Levee Breaks》by Led Zeppelin
bgm: When The Levee Breaks, by Led Zeppelin

2191
02:03:57,500 --> 02:03:59,500
根据麦克•刘易斯同名书籍改编
Based upon the book by Michael Lewis

2192
02:03:59,700 --> 02:04:02,700
你买的理财产品 公司债券

2193
02:04:02,800 --> 02:04:06,900
评级真的都是AAA级吗？

posted @ 2023-08-22 08:29  好极了  阅读(173)  评论(0)  编辑  收藏  举报