心智模型Mental Models

心智模型Mental Models

 

What Are Mental Models?
什么是心智模型？
A mental model is simply a mental compression of how something works. It applies to any idea, concept, or belief. We cannot keep all of the details in our heads, so we use models to simplify the complex into understandable and organized chunks.
心智模型只是对事物如何运作的心理压缩。它适用于任何想法、概念或信仰。我们无法将所有细节都保留在脑海中，因此我们使用模型将复杂简化为可理解和有组织的块。
Mental models are how we understand the world. For example, velocity is a mental model that helps you understand that speed and direction both matter. Reciprocity is a mental model that helps you understand how going positive and going first can make a big difference. Margin of Safety is a mental model that helps you understand things don’t always go as planned. Relativity is a mental model that shows us we have blind spots and how a different vantage point can change everything. The list goes on.
心智模型是我们理解世界的方式。例如，速度是一种心智模型，可帮助您了解速度和方向都很重要。互惠是一种心理模型，可以帮助您了解积极进取和先行如何产生重大影响。安全边际是一种心理模型，可帮助您了解事情并不总是按计划进行。相对论是一种心智模型，它向我们展示了我们有盲点，以及不同的有利位置如何改变一切。这样的例子不胜枚举。
The models we use help us simplify complexity, filter information, and reason. They shape how we think and the opportunities we see.
我们使用的模型帮助我们简化复杂性、过滤信息和推理。它们塑造了我们的思维方式和我们看到的机会。
While there are thousands of mental models, only a hundred or so are broadly useful in daily life. Understanding these ideas positions you to make fewer mistakes and take better actions.
虽然有成千上万的心智模型，但只有一百个左右在日常生活中广泛有用。了解这些想法可以让你少犯错误，采取更好的行动。
Learning to Think Better
学会更好地思考
In life and business, the person with the fewest blind spots wins.
在生活和商业中，盲点最少的人获胜。
The source of all poor choices is blind spots. Think about it. If you had perfect information about what happened and what would happen if you took a particular course of action, you would always make the best decision possible. You wouldn’t make any mistakes.
所有糟糕选择的根源都是盲点。想想吧。如果你对发生的事情以及如果你采取特定的行动方案会发生什么有完美的信息，你总是会做出最好的决定。你不会犯任何错误。
Mental models are not perfect, but they are useful. The real test of a model is not truth but utility. Does it allow you to see something you didn’t see before? Does it remove a blind spot?
心智模型并不完美，但它们是有用的。模型的真正测试不是真理，而是效用。它能让你看到以前没有看到的东西吗？它是否消除了盲点？
Developing a broad set of mental models is critical for removing blind spots. Most of us tend to specialize in a particular field. Rather than a broad latticework of mental models, we see the world through our chosen discipline. An engineer sees the world in systems. A biologist thinks in terms of evolution. But the person who can see the world through systems and evolution will make wiser choices and avoid more mistakes. Putting these disciplines together allows us to walk around a problem in a three-dimensional way.
开发一套广泛的心智模型对于消除盲点至关重要。我们大多数人倾向于专注于特定领域。我们不是心智模型的宽泛格子，而是通过我们选择的学科来看待世界。工程师在系统中看到世界。生物学家从进化的角度思考。但是，能够通过系统和进化来看待世界的人会做出更明智的选择，避免更多的错误。将这些学科放在一起使我们能够以三维方式解决问题。
If we’re only looking at the problem one way, we’ve got a blind spot. And blind spots can kill you.
如果我们只以一种方式看待问题，我们就有一个盲点。盲点会杀死你。
Here’s another way to think about it. When a botanist looks at a forest, they may focus on the ecosystem, an environmentalist sees the impact of climate change, a forestry engineer sees the state of the tree growth, and a business person sees the value of the land. None are wrong, but neither are any of them able to describe the full scope of the forest. When they make decisions through only one lens, they miss the impact on others.
这是另一种思考方式。当植物学家看到森林时，他们可能会关注生态系统，环保主义者看到气候变化的影响，林业工程师看到树木生长的状态，商人看到土地的价值。没有一个是错的，但他们中的任何一个都无法描述森林的全部范围。当他们只通过一个镜头做出决定时，他们会错过对其他人的影响。
In a famous speech in the 1990s, Charlie Munger summed up the approach to practical wisdom through understanding mental models by saying:
在1990年代的一次著名演讲中，查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）总结了通过理解心智模型来获得实用智慧的方法，他说：
The first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ’em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form. You’ve got to have models in your head. And you’ve got to array your experience both vicarious and direct on this latticework of models. You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and in life. You’ve got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head.”
第一条规则是，如果你只是记住孤立的事实并试图反击它们，你就什么都不知道。如果事实没有在理论的格子上结合在一起，你就没有可用的形式。你的脑子里必须有模型。你必须在模型的格子上安排你的经验，既替代又直接。你可能已经注意到，学生们只是试图记住并重击记住的东西。好吧，他们在学校和生活中都失败了。你必须把经验挂在你脑海中的模型格子上。

 

A Latticework of Mental Models
心智模型的格子
To help you build your latticework of mental models so you can make better decisions, I’ve collected and summarized the most useful ones.
为了帮助你建立心智模型的格子，以便你做出更好的决策，我收集并总结了最有用的模型。

Core Thinking Concepts 核心思维概念
Physics and Chemistry 物理与化学
Biology 生物学
Systems 系统
Numeracy 算术
Microeconomics 微观 经济学
Military and War 军事与战争
Human Nature and Judgment
人性与判断

The Core Mental Models
核心心智模型
1. The Map is Not the Territory
1. 地图不是领土
The map of reality is not reality. Even the best maps are imperfect. That’s because they are reductions of what they represent. If a map were to represent the territory with perfect fidelity, it would no longer be a reduction and thus would no longer be useful to us. A map can also be a snapshot of a point in time, representing something that no longer exists. This is important to keep in mind as we think through problems and make better decisions.
现实的地图不是现实。即使是最好的地图也不完美。那是因为它们是它们所代表的内容的简化。如果地图以完美的保真度表示领土，它将不再是一种减少，因此对我们不再有用。地图也可以是时间点的快照，表示不再存在的内容。在我们思考问题并做出更好的决策时，牢记这一点很重要。
2. Circle of Competence
2. 能力圈
When ego and not competence drive what we undertake, we have massive blind spots. If you know what you understand, you know where you have an edge over others. When you are honest about where your knowledge is lacking, you know where you are vulnerable and where you can improve. Understanding your circle of competence improves decision-making and outcomes.
当自我而不是能力驱动我们的事业时，我们就存在巨大的盲点。如果你知道你理解的东西，你就知道你比别人有优势的地方。当你诚实地指出你的知识缺乏时，你知道你在哪里脆弱，在哪里你可以改进。了解您的能力圈可以改善决策和结果。
3. First Principles Thinking
3. 第一性原理思维
First-principles thinking is one of the best ways to reverse-engineer complicated situations and unleash creative possibility. Sometimes called reasoning from first principles, it’s a tool to help clarify complicated problems by separating the underlying ideas or facts from any assumptions based on them. What remains are the essentials. If you know the first principles of something, you can build the rest of your knowledge around them to produce something new.
第一性原理思维是逆向工程复杂情况和释放创造性可能性的最佳方式之一。有时被称为从第一原则推理，它是一种通过将基本想法或事实与基于它们的任何假设分开来帮助澄清复杂问题的工具。剩下的就是必需品。如果你知道某事的第一原理，你可以围绕它们建立你的其余知识来产生新的东西。
4. Thought Experiment
4. 思想实验
Thought experiments can be defined as “devices of the imagination used to investigate the nature of things.” Many disciplines, such as philosophy and physics, make use of thought experiments to examine what can be known. In doing so, they can open up new avenues for inquiry and exploration. Thought experiments are powerful because they help us learn from our mistakes and avoid future ones. They let us take on the impossible, evaluate the potential consequences of our actions, and re-examine history to make better decisions. They can help us both figure out what we really want and the best way to get there.
思想实验可以定义为“用于研究事物本质的想象力装置”。许多学科，如哲学和物理学，利用思想实验来检验可以知道的东西。通过这样做，它们可以开辟新的探究和探索途径。思想实验之所以强大，是因为它们帮助我们从错误中吸取教训，避免未来的错误。它们让我们承担不可能的事情，评估我们行为的潜在后果，并重新审视历史以做出更好的决定。他们可以帮助我们弄清楚我们真正想要什么以及到达那里的最佳方式。
5. Second-Order Thinking
5. 二阶思维
Almost everyone can anticipate the immediate results of their actions. This type of first-order thinking is easy and safe, but it’s also a way to ensure you get the same results that everyone else gets. Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. It requires us to consider not only our actions and their immediate consequences but the subsequent effects of those actions as well. Failing to consider the second and third-order effects can unleash disaster.
几乎每个人都可以预见到他们行动的直接结果。这种类型的一阶思维既简单又安全，但它也是确保你得到与其他人相同的结果的一种方式。二阶思维是思考得更远，整体思维。它要求我们不仅考虑我们的行动及其直接后果，而且考虑这些行动的后续影响。不考虑二阶和三阶效应可能会引发灾难。
6. Probabilistic Thinking
6. 概率思维
Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions. In a world where each moment is determined by an infinitely complex set of factors, probabilistic thinking helps us identify the most likely outcomes. When we know these, our decisions can be more precise and effective.
概率思维本质上是试图使用一些数学和逻辑工具来估计任何特定结果发生的可能性。它是我们提高决策准确性的最佳工具之一。在一个每个时刻都由一组无限复杂的因素决定的世界里，概率思维帮助我们确定最有可能的结果。当我们知道这些时，我们的决定可以更加准确和有效。
7. Inversion
7. 反转
Inversion is a powerful tool to improve your thinking because it helps you identify and remove obstacles to success. The root of inversion is “invert,” which means to upend or turn upside down. As a thinking tool, it means approaching a situation from the opposite end of the natural starting point. Most of us tend to think one way about a problem: forward. Inversion allows us to flip the problem around and think backward. Sometimes it’s good to start at the beginning, but it can be more useful to start at the end.
反转是改善思维的有力工具，因为它可以帮助您识别和消除成功的障碍。反转的根源是“倒置”，意思是颠倒或颠倒。作为一种思维工具，它意味着从自然起点的另一端接近情况。我们大多数人倾向于以一种方式思考问题：前进。反转使我们能够扭转问题并逆向思考。有时从头开始是件好事，但从最后开始可能更有用。
8. Occam’s Razor
8.奥卡姆剃刀
Simpler explanations are more likely to be true than complicated ones. This is the essence of Occam’s Razor, a classic principle of logic and problem-solving. Instead of wasting your time trying to disprove complex scenarios, you can make decisions more confidently by basing them on the explanation that has the fewest moving parts.
更简单的解释比复杂的解释更有可能是正确的。这就是奥卡姆剃刀的精髓，是逻辑和解决问题的经典原则。与其浪费时间试图反驳复杂的场景，不如根据活动部件最少的解释来更自信地做出决定。
9. Hanlon’s Razor
9. 汉隆剃刀
Hard to trace in its origin, Hanlon’s Razor states that we should not attribute to malice that which is more easily explained by stupidity. In a complex world, using this model helps us avoid paranoia and ideology. By not generally assuming that bad results are the fault of a bad actor, we look for options instead of missing opportunities. This model reminds us that people do make mistakes. It demands that we ask if there is another reasonable explanation for the events that have occurred. The explanation most likely to be right is the one that contains the least amount of intent.
很难追溯其起源，汉隆的剃刀指出，我们不应该将更容易用愚蠢来解释的恶意归因于恶意。在一个复杂的世界中，使用这个模型可以帮助我们避免偏执和意识形态。通过通常不假设不良结果是不良行为者的错，我们寻找选择而不是错过机会。这个模型提醒我们，人们确实会犯错误。它要求我们问，对所发生的事件是否有另一种合理的解释。最有可能正确的解释是包含最少意图的解释。

The Mental Models of Physics and Chemistry
物理和化学的心理模型
1. Relativity
1. 相对论
Relativity has been used in several contexts in the world of physics, but the important aspect to study is the idea that an observer cannot truly understand a system of which he himself is a part. For example, a man inside an airplane does not feel like he is experiencing movement, but an outside observer can see that movement is occurring. This form of relativity tends to affect social systems in a similar way.
相对论已经在物理学世界中的几种情况下使用，但研究的重要方面是观察者无法真正理解他自己所属的系统的想法。例如，飞机内的人并不觉得自己正在经历运动，但外部观察者可以看到运动正在发生。这种形式的相对论倾向于以类似的方式影响社会系统。
2. Reciprocity
2. 互惠
If I push on a wall, physics tells me that the wall pushes back with equivalent force. In a biological system, if one individual acts on another, the action will tend to be reciprocated in kind. And of course, human beings act with intense reciprocity demonstrated as well.
如果我推墙，物理学告诉我，墙会以等效的力向后推。在生物系统中，如果一个人对另一个人起作用，这种行为将倾向于以实物回报。当然，人类的行为也表现出强烈的互惠性。
3. Thermodynamics
3. 热力学
The laws of thermodynamics describe energy in a closed system. The laws cannot be escaped and underlie the physical world. They describe a world in which useful energy is constantly being lost, and energy cannot be created or destroyed. Applying their lessons to the social world can be a profitable enterprise.
热力学定律描述了封闭系统中的能量。法律是无法逃避的，是物质世界的基础。他们描述了一个有用的能量不断流失的世界，能量无法被创造或摧毁。将他们的经验教训应用于社交世界可以成为一项有利可图的企业。
4. Inertia
4. 惯性
An object in motion with a certain vector wants to continue moving in that direction unless acted upon. This is a fundamental physical principle of motion; however, individuals, systems, and organizations display the same effect. It allows them to minimize the use of energy, but can cause them to be destroyed or eroded.
具有特定矢量的运动对象希望继续向该方向移动，除非对其采取行动。这是运动的基本物理原理;但是，个人、系统和组织表现出相同的效果。它允许他们最大限度地减少能源的使用，但可能导致他们被破坏或侵蚀。
5. Friction and Viscosity
5. 摩擦和粘度
Both friction and viscosity describe the difficulty of movement. Friction is a force that opposes the movement of objects that are in contact with each other, and viscosity measures how hard it is for one fluid to slide over another. Higher viscosity leads to higher resistance. These concepts teach us a lot about how our environment can impede our movement.
摩擦力和粘度都描述了运动的难度。摩擦力是一种反对彼此接触的物体运动的力，粘度衡量一种流体滑过另一种流体的难度。粘度越高，电阻越大。这些概念教会了我们很多关于我们的环境如何阻碍我们的运动。
6. Velocity
6. 速度
Velocity is not equivalent to speed; the two are sometimes confused. Velocity is speed plus vector: how fast something gets somewhere. An object that moves two steps forward and then two steps back has moved at a certain speed but shows no velocity. The addition of the vector, that critical distinction, is what we should consider in practical life.
速度不等同于速度;两者有时会混淆。速度是速度加矢量：某物到达某个地方的速度。向前移动两步然后后退两步的物体以一定的速度移动，但没有显示速度。矢量的添加，这个关键的区别，是我们在实际生活中应该考虑的。
7. Leverage
7. 杠杆
Most of the engineering marvels of the world were accomplished with applied leverage. As famously stated by Archimedes, “Give me a lever long enough and I shall move the world.” With a small amount of input force, we can make a great output force through leverage. Understanding where we can apply this model to the human world can be a source of great success.
世界上大多数工程奇迹都是通过应用杠杆完成的。正如阿基米德的名言：“给我一个足够长的杠杆，我将推动世界。用少量的输入力，我们可以通过杠杆做出很大的输出力。了解我们可以将这种模型应用于人类世界的地方可以成为巨大成功的源泉。
8. Activation Energy
8. 活化能
A fire is not much more than a combination of carbon and oxygen, but the forests and coal mines of the world are not combusting at will because such a chemical reaction requires the input of a critical level of “activation energy” in order to get a reaction started. Two combustible elements alone are not enough.
火灾只不过是碳和氧的结合，但世界上的森林和煤矿并不是随意燃烧的，因为这样的化学反应需要输入临界水平的“活化能”才能开始反应。仅靠两种可燃元素是不够的。
9. Catalysts
9. 催化剂
A catalyst either kick-starts or maintains a chemical reaction but isn’t itself a reactant. The reaction may slow or stop without the addition of catalysts. Social systems, of course, take on many similar traits, and we can view catalysts in a similar light.
催化剂启动或维持化学反应，但本身不是反应物。反应可以在不添加催化剂的情况下减慢或停止。当然，社会系统具有许多相似的特征，我们可以从类似的角度看待催化剂。
10. Alloying
10. 合金化
When we combine various elements, we create new substances. This is no great surprise, but what can be surprising in the alloying process is that 2+2 can equal not 4 but 6 – the alloy can be far stronger than the simple addition of the underlying elements would lead us to believe. This process leads us to engineer great physical objects, but we understand many intangibles in the same way; a combination of the right elements in social systems or even individuals can create a 2+2=6 effect similar to alloying.
当我们结合各种元素时，我们创造了新的物质。这并不奇怪，但在合金化过程中令人惊讶的是，2+2 不能等于 4，而是等于 6——合金可以比简单地添加底层元素会让我们相信的要强得多。这个过程引导我们设计伟大的物理对象，但我们以同样的方式理解许多无形资产;社会系统甚至个人中正确的元素的组合可以产生类似于合金化的2 + 2 = 6效果。
The Mental Models of Biology
生物学的心理模型
1. Evolution Part One: Natural Selection and Extinction
1. 进化第一部分：自然选择与灭绝
Evolution by natural selection was once called “the greatest idea anyone ever had.” In the 19th century, Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace simultaneously realized that species evolve through random mutation and differential survival rates. If we call human intervention in animal breeding an example of “artificial selection,” we can call Mother Nature deciding the success or failure of a particular mutation “natural selection.” Those best suited for survival tend to be preserved. But of course, conditions change.
自然选择的进化曾经被称为“任何人曾经有过的最伟大的想法”。在19世纪，查尔斯·达尔文和阿尔弗雷德·罗素·华莱士同时意识到物种是通过随机突变和差异存活率进化的。如果我们把人类对动物育种的干预称为“人工选择”的例子，我们可以把决定特定突变成败的大自然称为“自然选择”。那些最适合生存的人往往会被保存下来。但是，当然，情况会发生变化。
2. Evolution Part Two: Adaptation and The Red Queen Effect
2. 进化第二部分：改编和红皇后效应
Species tend to adapt to their surroundings in order to survive, given the combination of their genetics and their environment – an always-unavoidable combination. However, adaptations made in an individual’s lifetime are not passed down genetically, as was once thought: Populations of species adapt through the process of evolution by natural selection, as the most-fit examples of the species replicate at an above-average rate.
物种倾向于适应周围环境以生存，因为它们的遗传和环境相结合 - 这是一个总是不可避免的组合。然而，在个体一生中所做的适应并不像曾经认为的那样通过基因遗传：物种种群通过自然选择的进化过程进行适应，因为最合适的物种以高于平均水平的速度复制。
The evolution-by-natural-selection model leads to something of an arms race among species competing for limited resources. When one species evolves an advantageous adaptation, a competing species must respond in kind or fail as a species. Standing still can mean falling behind. This arms race is called the Red Queen Effect for the character in Alice in Wonderland who said, “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.”
自然选择进化模式导致了争夺有限资源的物种之间的军备竞赛。当一个物种进化出有利的适应能力时，一个竞争物种必须做出同样的反应，否则就会作为一个物种失败。停滞不前可能意味着落后。这场军备竞赛被称为《爱丽丝梦游仙境》中的角色的红皇后效应，他说：“现在，在这里，你看，你需要尽你所能，保持在同一个地方。
3. Ecosystems
3. 生态系统
An ecosystem describes any group of organisms coexisting with the natural world. Most ecosystems show diverse forms of life taking on different approaches to survival, with such pressures leading to varying behavior. Social systems can be seen in the same light as the physical ecosystems and many of the same conclusions can be made.
生态系统描述了与自然界共存的任何一组生物。大多数生态系统显示出不同的生命形式，采取不同的生存方式，这种压力导致不同的行为。社会系统可以与物理生态系统一样看待，并且可以得出许多相同的结论。
4. Niches
4. 壁龛
Most organisms find a niche: a method of competing and behaving for survival. Usually, a species will select a niche for which it is best adapted. The danger arises when multiple species begin competing for the same niche, which can cause an extinction – there can be only so many species doing the same thing before limited resources give out.
大多数生物找到了一个利基：一种竞争和生存的方法。通常，一个物种会选择最适合它的生态位。当多个物种开始争夺同一个生态位时，危险就会出现，这可能导致灭绝——在有限的资源耗尽之前，只有这么多物种在做同样的事情。
5. Self-Preservation
5. 自我保护
Without a strong self-preservation instinct in an organism’s DNA, it would tend to disappear over time, thus eliminating that DNA. While cooperation is another important model, the self-preservation instinct is strong in all organisms and can cause violent, erratic, and/or destructive behavior for those around them.
如果生物体的DNA中没有强烈的自我保护本能，它往往会随着时间的推移而消失，从而消除这种DNA。虽然合作是另一个重要的模式，但自我保护本能在所有生物体中都很强烈，可能会对周围的人造成暴力、不稳定和/或破坏性行为。
6. Replication
6. 复制
A fundamental building block of diverse biological life is high-fidelity replication. The fundamental unit of replication seems to be the DNA molecule, which provides a blueprint for the offspring to be built from physical building blocks. There are a variety of replication methods, but most can be lumped into sexual and asexual.
多样化生物生命的基本组成部分是高保真复制。复制的基本单位似乎是DNA分子，它为从物理构建块构建后代提供了蓝图。有多种复制方法，但大多数可以分为有性和无性恋。
7. Cooperation
7. 合作
Competition tends to describe most biological systems, but cooperation at various levels is just as important a dynamic. In fact, the cooperation of a bacterium and a simple cell probably created the first complex cell and all of the life we see around us. Without cooperation, no group survives, and the cooperation of groups gives rise to even more complex versions of organization. Cooperation and competition tend to coexist at multiple levels.
竞争倾向于描述大多数生物系统，但不同层次的合作同样是一种动态。事实上，细菌和简单细胞的合作可能创造了第一个复杂的细胞和我们周围看到的所有生命。没有合作，就没有群体生存，群体的合作产生了更复杂的组织版本。合作与竞争往往在多个层面共存。
The Prisoner’s Dilemma is a famous application of game theory in which two prisoners are both better off cooperating with each other, but if one of them cheats, the other is better off cheating. Thus the dilemma. This model shows up in economic life, in war, and in many other areas of practical human life. Though the prisoner’s dilemma theoretically leads to a poor result, in the real world, cooperation is nearly always possible and must be explored.
囚徒困境是博弈论的一个著名应用，其中两个囚犯最好相互合作，但如果其中一个作弊，另一个最好作弊。因此进退两难。这种模式出现在经济生活、战争和人类实际生活的许多其他领域。虽然囚徒困境理论上会导致糟糕的结果，但在现实世界中，合作几乎总是可能的，必须探索。
8. Hierarchical Organization
8. 分层组织
Most complex biological organisms have an innate feel for how they should organize. While not all of them end up in hierarchical structures, many do, especially in the animal kingdom. Human beings like to think they are outside of this, but they feel the hierarchical instinct as strongly as any other organism. This includes the Stanford Prison Experiment and Milgram Experiments, which demonstrated what humans learned practically many years before: the human bias towards being influenced by authority. In a dominance hierarchy such as ours, we tend to look to the leader for guidance on behavior, especially in situations of stress or uncertainty. Thus, authority figures have a responsibility to act well, whether they like it or not.
大多数复杂的生物有机体对它们应该如何组织有一种与生俱来的感觉。虽然并非所有人最终都处于等级结构中，但许多人确实如此，尤其是在动物王国中。人类喜欢认为自己置身于此之外，但他们对等级本能的感受与其他任何生物体一样强烈。这包括斯坦福监狱实验和米尔格拉姆实验，它们展示了人类多年前学到的东西：人类对受权威影响的偏见。在像我们这样的支配等级制度中，我们倾向于向领导者寻求行为指导，尤其是在压力或不确定的情况下。因此，权威人物有责任表现良好，无论他们喜欢与否。
9. Incentives
9. 激励措施
All creatures respond to incentives to keep themselves alive. This is the basic insight of biology. Constant incentives will tend to cause a biological entity to have constant behavior to an extent. Humans are included and are particularly great examples of the incentive-driven nature of biology; however, humans are complicated in that their incentives can be hidden or intangible. The rule of life is to repeat what works and has been rewarded.
所有生物都会对激励做出反应，以保持自己的生命。这是生物学的基本见解。持续的激励往往会在一定程度上导致生物实体具有恒定的行为。人类也包括在内，是生物学激励驱动性质的特别好的例子;然而，人类是复杂的，因为他们的动机可能是隐藏的或无形的。生活的法则是重复有效并得到回报的事情。
10. Tendency to Minimize Energy Output (Mental and physical)
10. 最小化能量输出的趋势（精神和身体）
In a physical world governed by thermodynamics and competition for limited energy and resources, any biological organism that was wasteful with energy would be at a severe disadvantage for survival. Thus, we see in most instances that behavior is governed by a tendency to minimize energy usage when at all possible.
在一个由热力学和对有限能源和资源的竞争所支配的物理世界中，任何浪费能量的生物有机体都将处于生存的严重劣势。因此，在大多数情况下，我们看到行为是由尽可能减少能源使用的倾向决定的。
The Mental Models of Systems Thinking
系统思维的心智模型
1. Feedback Loops
1. 反馈循环
All complex systems are subject to positive and negative feedback loops whereby A causes B, which in turn influences A (and C), and so on – with higher-order effects frequently resulting from the continual movement of the loop. In a homeostatic system, a change in A is often brought back into line by an opposite change in B to maintain the balance of the system, as with the temperature of the human body or the behavior of an organizational culture. Automatic feedback loops maintain a “static” environment unless and until an outside force changes the loop. A “runaway feedback loop” describes a situation in which the output of a reaction becomes its own catalyst (auto-catalysis).
所有复杂系统都受到正反馈和负反馈回路的影响，其中A导致B，进而影响A（和C），依此类推 - 循环的连续运动经常产生高阶效应。在稳态系统中，A的变化通常通过B的相反变化来维持系统的平衡，就像人体的温度或组织文化的行为一样。自动反馈回路保持“静态”环境，除非并且直到外力改变回路。“失控反馈回路”描述了反应输出成为其自身催化剂（自动催化）的情况。
2. Equilibrium
2. 均衡
Homeostasis is the process through which systems self-regulate to maintain an equilibrium state that enables them to function in a changing environment. Most of the time, they over or undershoot it by a little and must keep adjusting. Like a pilot flying a plane, the system is off course more often than on course. Everything within a homeostatic system contributes to keeping it within a range of equilibrium, so it is important to understand the limits of the range.
体内平衡是系统自我调节以维持平衡状态的过程，使其能够在不断变化的环境中发挥作用。大多数时候，他们略高于或低于它，必须不断调整。就像飞行员驾驶飞机一样，系统偏离航线的频率高于航向。稳态系统中的所有内容都有助于将其保持在平衡范围内，因此了解该范围的极限非常重要。
3. Bottlenecks
3. 瓶颈
A bottleneck describes the place at which a flow (of a tangible or intangible) is stopped, thus constraining it from continuous movement. As with a clogged artery or a blocked drain, a bottleneck in the production of any good or service can be small but have a disproportionate impact if it is in the critical path. However, bottlenecks can also be a source of inspiration as they force us to reconsider if there are alternate pathways to success.
瓶颈描述了（有形或无形）流动停止的地方，从而限制了它连续运动。与动脉堵塞或引流堵塞一样，任何商品或服务生产的瓶颈可能很小，但如果它处于关键路径，则会产生不成比例的影响。然而，瓶颈也可以成为灵感的源泉，因为它们迫使我们重新考虑是否有其他成功途径。
4. Scale
4. 规模
One of the most important principles of systems is that they are sensitive to scale. Properties (or behaviors) tend to change when you scale them up or down. In studying complex systems, we must always be roughly quantifying – in orders of magnitude, at least – the scale at which we are observing, analyzing, or predicting the system.
系统最重要的原则之一是它们对规模敏感。属性（或行为）在纵向扩展或缩减时往往会更改。在研究复杂系统时，我们必须始终粗略地量化——至少以数量级为单位——我们观察、分析或预测系统的规模。
5. Margin of Safety
5. 安全边际
Similarly, engineers have also developed the habit of adding a margin for error into all calculations. In an unknown world, driving a 9,500-pound bus over a bridge built to hold precisely 9,600 pounds is rarely seen as intelligent. Thus, on the whole, few modern bridges ever fail. In practical life outside of physical engineering, we can often profitably give ourselves margins as robust as the bridge system.
同样，工程师也养成了在所有计算中添加误差余量的习惯。在一个未知的世界里，驾驶一辆9,500磅重的公共汽车在一座桥上精确地容纳9,600磅的桥梁很少被视为智能。因此，总的来说，很少有现代桥梁会倒塌。在物理工程以外的实际生活中，我们通常可以为自己提供与桥梁系统一样强大的利润。
6. Churn
6. 流失
Insurance companies and subscription services are well aware of the concept of churn – every year, a certain number of customers are lost and must be replaced. Standing still is the equivalent of losing, as seen in the model called the “Red Queen Effect.” Churn is present in many business and human systems: A constant figure is periodically lost and must be replaced before any new figures are added over the top.
保险公司和订阅服务都非常清楚流失的概念——每年都有一定数量的客户流失，必须更换。静止不动相当于输了，正如在被称为“红皇后效应”的模型中所看到的那样。流失存在于许多商业和人类系统中：一个恒定的数字会周期性地丢失，并且在顶部添加任何新数字之前必须更换。
7. Algorithms
7. 算法
While hard to precisely define, an algorithm is generally an automated set of rules or a “blueprint” leading a series of steps or actions resulting in a desired outcome, and often stated in the form of a series of “If → Then” statements. Algorithms are best known for their use in modern computing, but are a feature of biological life as well. For example, human DNA contains an algorithm for building a human being.
虽然很难精确定义，但算法通常是一组自动化的规则或“蓝图”，引导一系列步骤或行动产生预期的结果，并且通常以一系列“如果→那么”语句的形式陈述。算法以其在现代计算中的使用而闻名，但也是生物生命的一个特征。例如，人类DNA包含用于构建人类的算法。
8. Critical mass 8. 临界质量
A system becomes critical when it is about to jump discretely from one phase to another. The marginal utility of the last unit before the phase change is wildly higher than any unit before it. A frequently cited example is water turning from a liquid to a vapor when heated to a specific temperature. “Critical mass” refers to the mass needed to have the critical event occur, most commonly in a nuclear system.
当系统即将从一个阶段离散地跳到另一个阶段时，它变得至关重要。相变前最后一个单位的边际效用远远高于它之前的任何单位。一个经常被引用的例子是水在加热到特定温度时从液体变成蒸汽。“临界质量”是指发生临界事件所需的质量，最常见于核系统。
9. Emergence
9. 出现
Higher-level behavior tends to emerge from the interaction of lower-order components. The result is frequently not linear – not a matter of simple addition – but rather non-linear, or exponential. An important resulting property of emergent behavior is that it cannot be predicted from simply studying the component parts.
高级行为往往来自低阶组件的交互。结果通常不是线性的——不是简单的加法问题——而是非线性的，或者指数性的。涌现行为的一个重要属性是，它不能通过简单地研究组成部分来预测。
10. Irreducibility
10. 不可还原性
We find that in most systems there are irreducible quantitative properties, such as complexity, minimums, time, and length. Below the irreducible level, the desired result simply does not occur. One cannot get several women pregnant to reduce the amount of time needed to have one child, and one cannot reduce a successfully built automobile to a single part. These results are, to a defined point, irreducible.
我们发现在大多数系统中都有不可简化的定量属性，例如复杂性、最小值、时间和长度。低于不可简化水平，根本不会发生预期的结果。一个人不能让几个女人怀孕来减少生一个孩子所需的时间，也不能把一辆成功制造的汽车减少到一个零件。这些结果，在定义的点上，是不可约的。
11. Law of Diminishing Returns
11. 收益递减定律
Related to scale, most important real-world results are subject to an eventual decrease of incremental value. A good example would be a poor family: Give them enough money to thrive, and they are no longer poor. But after a certain point, additional money will not improve their lot; there is a clear diminishing return of additional dollars at some roughly quantifiable point. Often, the law of diminishing returns veers into negative territory – i.e., receiving too much money could destroy the poor family.
与规模相关，最重要的实际结果最终会降低增量价值。一个很好的例子是一个贫穷的家庭：给他们足够的钱让他们茁壮成长，他们就不再贫穷了。但过了一定程度，额外的钱不会改善他们的命运;在某个大致可以量化的点上，额外美元的回报明显递减。通常，收益递减定律会转向负值区域——即收到太多钱可能会摧毁贫困家庭。
The Mental Models of Numeracy
算术的心智模型
1. Distributions
1. 分配
The normal distribution is a statistical process that leads to the well-known graphical representation of a bell curve, with a meaningful central “average” and increasingly rare standard deviations from that average when correctly sampled. (The so-called “central limit” theorem.) Well-known examples include human height and weight, but it’s just as important to note that many common processes, especially in non-tangible systems like social systems, do not follow this pattern. Normal distributions can be contrasted with power law, or exponential, distributions.
正态分布是一个统计过程，它导致了众所周知的钟形曲线图形表示，具有有意义的中心“平均值”，并且在正确采样时与该平均值的标准偏差越来越少。（所谓的“中心极限”定理。众所周知的例子包括人类的身高和体重，但同样重要的是要注意，许多常见的过程，特别是在社会系统等无形系统中，并不遵循这种模式。正态分布可以与幂律分布或指数分布形成对比。
2. Compounding
2. 复利
It’s been said that Einstein called compounding a wonder of the world. He probably didn’t, but it is a wonder. Compounding is the process by which we add interest to a fixed sum, which then earns interest on the previous sum and the newly added interest, and then earns interest on that amount, and so on ad infinitum. It is an exponential effect, rather than a linear, or additive, effect. Money is not the only thing that compounds; ideas and relationships do as well. In tangible realms, compounding is always subject to physical limits and diminishing returns; intangibles can compound more freely. Compounding also leads to the time value of money, which underlies all of modern finance.
有人说，爱因斯坦称复合是世界的奇迹。他可能没有，但这是一个奇迹。复利是我们将利息添加到固定金额的过程，然后从先前的金额和新增加的利息中赚取利息，然后从该金额上赚取利息，依此类推。这是一种指数效应，而不是线性或累加效应。金钱不是唯一复合的东西;想法和关系也是如此。在有形领域，复利总是受到物理限制和收益递减的影响;无形资产可以更自由地复利。复利还导致了货币的时间价值，这是所有现代金融的基础。
3. Sampling
3. 抽样
When we want to get information about a population (meaning a set of alike people, things, or events), we usually need to look at a sample (meaning a part of the population). It is usually not possible or even desirable to consider the entire population, so we aim for a sample that represents the whole. As a rule of thumb, more measurements mean more accurate results, all else being equal. Small sample sizes can produce skewed results.
当我们想要获取有关总体（意味着一组相似的人、事物或事件）的信息时，我们通常需要查看样本（意味着人口的一部分）。通常不可能甚至不希望考虑整个总体，因此我们的目标是代表整体的样本。根据经验，在其他条件相同的情况下，更多的测量意味着更准确的结果。小样本量会产生偏斜的结果。
4. Randomness
4. 随机性
Though the human brain has trouble comprehending it, much of the world is composed of random, non-sequential, non-ordered events. We are “fooled” by random effects when we attribute causality to things that are actually outside of our control. If we don’t course-correct for this fooled-by-randomness effect – our faulty sense of pattern-seeking – we will tend to see things as being more predictable than they are and act accordingly.
尽管人类的大脑难以理解它，但世界的大部分地区都是由随机的、非顺序的、无序的事件组成的。当我们把因果关系归因于实际上我们无法控制的事物时，我们就被随机效应“愚弄”了。如果我们不纠正这种被随机性效应愚弄的方向——我们错误的模式寻求感——我们将倾向于认为事情比它们更可预测，并采取相应的行动。
5. Regression to the Mean
5. 回归均值
In a normally distributed system, long deviations from the average will tend to return to that average with an increasing number of observations: the so-called Law of Large Numbers. We are often fooled by regression to the mean, as with a sick patient improving spontaneously around the same time they begin taking an herbal remedy, or a poorly performing sports team going on a winning streak. We must be careful not to confuse statistically likely events with causal ones.
在正态分布系统中，与平均值的长偏差将随着观测数量的增加而返回该平均值：即所谓的大数定律。我们经常被回归均值所愚弄，就像病人在开始服用草药的同时自发改善，或者表现不佳的运动队连胜。我们必须小心，不要将统计上可能的事件与因果事件混淆。
6. Multiplying by Zero
6. 乘以零
Any reasonably educated person knows that any number multiplied by zero, no matter how large the number, is still zero. This is true in human systems as well as mathematical ones. In some systems, a failure in one area can negate great effort in all other areas. As simple multiplication would show, fixing the “zero” often has a much greater effect than does trying to enlarge the other areas.
任何受过良好教育的人都知道，任何数字乘以零，无论数字多大，仍然是零。这在人类系统和数学系统中都是如此。在某些系统中，一个领域的失败可能会抵消所有其他领域的巨大努力。正如简单的乘法所显示的那样，固定“零”通常比试图放大其他区域的效果要大得多。
7. Equivalence
7. 等效性
The introduction of algebra allowed us to demonstrate mathematically and abstractly that two seemingly different things could be the same. By manipulating symbols, we can demonstrate equivalence or inequivalence, the use of which led humanity to untold engineering and technical abilities. Knowing at least the basics of algebra can allow us to understand a variety of important results.
代数的引入使我们能够在数学和抽象上证明两个看似不同的东西可能是相同的。通过操纵符号，我们可以证明等价或不等价，它们的使用导致人类拥有无数的工程和技术能力。至少了解代数的基础知识可以让我们理解各种重要结果。
8. Surface Area
8. 表面积
The surface area of a three dimensional object is the amount of space on the outside of it. Thus, the more surface area you have, the more contact you have with your environment. Sometimes a high surface area is desirable: Our lungs and intestines have a huge surface area to increase the absorption of oxygen and nutrients. Other times we want to reduce our exposure, such as limiting our internet exposure to reduce the attack surface.
三维物体的表面积是其外部的空间量。因此，您拥有的表面积越多，您与环境的接触就越多。有时需要高表面积：我们的肺和肠有一个巨大的表面积来增加氧气和营养物质的吸收。其他时候，我们希望减少暴露，例如限制互联网暴露以减少攻击面。
9. Global and Local Maxima
9. 全局和局部极大值
The maxima and minima of a mathematical function are the largest and smallest values over its domain. Although there is one maximum value, the global maximum, there can be smaller peaks of value in a given range, the local maxima. Global and local maxima help us identify peaks, and if there is still potential to go higher or lower. It also reminds us that sometimes we have to go down to go back up.
数学函数的最大值和最小值是其域内的最大值和最小值。尽管有一个最大值，即全局最大值，但在给定范围内（局部最大值）中可以有较小的值峰值。全局和局部最大值有助于我们确定峰值，以及是否仍有可能更高或更低。它还提醒我们，有时我们必须向下才能重新上升。
The Mental Models of Microeconomics
微观经济学的心智模型
1. Opportunity Costs
1. 机会成本
Doing one thing means not being able to do another. We live in a world of trade-offs, and the concept of opportunity cost rules all. Most aptly summarized as “there is no such thing as a free lunch.”
做一件事意味着不能做另一件事。我们生活在一个权衡的世界里，机会成本的概念统治着一切。最恰当的概括是“没有免费的午餐”。
2. Creative Destruction
2. 创造性破坏
Coined by economist Joseph Schumpeter, the term “creative destruction” describes the capitalistic process at work in a functioning free-market system. Motivated by personal incentives (including but not limited to financial profit), entrepreneurs will push to best one another in a never-ending game of creative one-upmanship, in the process destroying old ideas and replacing them with newer technology. Beware getting left behind.
“创造性破坏”一词由经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特（Joseph Schumpeter）创造，描述了在运作良好的自由市场体系中运作的资本主义过程。在个人激励（包括但不限于经济利润）的激励下，企业家们将在一场永无止境的创造性单挑游戏中相互推动，在此过程中摧毁旧的想法并用新技术取而代之。当心被抛在后面。
3. Comparative Advantage
3. 比较优势
The Scottish economist David Ricardo had an unusual and non-intuitive insight: Two individuals, firms, or countries could benefit from trading with one another even if one of them was better at everything. Comparative advantage is best seen as an applied opportunity cost: If it has the opportunity to trade, an entity gives up free gains in productivity by not focusing on what it does best.
蘇格蘭經濟學家大衛·李嘉圖（David Ricardo）有一個不尋常且非直覺的見解：兩個人、公司或國家都可以從彼此的貿易中受益，即使其中一個人在所有事情上都做得更好。比较优势最好被看作是应用的机会成本：如果它有机会交易，一个实体就会放弃生产力的自由收益，因为它没有专注于它最擅长的事情。
4. Specialization (Pin Factory)
4. 专业化（引脚工厂）
Another Scottish economist, Adam Smith, highlighted the advantages gained in a free-market system by specialization. Rather than having a group of workers each producing an entire item from start to finish, Smith explained that it’s usually far more productive to have each of them specialize in one aspect of production. He also cautioned, however, that each worker might not enjoy such a life; this is a trade-off of the specialization model.
另一位苏格兰经济学家亚当·斯密（Adam Smith）强调了自由市场体系通过专业化获得的优势。史密斯解释说，与其让一群工人从头到尾生产整个项目，不如让他们每个人都专注于生产的一个方面，效率要高得多。然而，他也告诫说，每个工人可能都无法享受这样的生活;这是专业化模型的权衡。
5. Seizing the Middle
5. 抓住中间
In chess, the winning strategy is usually to seize control of the middle of the board, so as to maximize the potential moves that can be made and control the movement of the maximal number of pieces. The same strategy works profitably in business, as can be demonstrated by John D. Rockefeller’s control of the refinery business in the early days of the oil trade and Microsoft’s control of the operating system in the early days of the software trade.
在国际象棋中，获胜策略通常是夺取棋盘中间的控制权，从而最大限度地发挥可能做出的潜在动作并控制最大棋子数的移动。同样的策略在商业中是有利可图的，正如约翰·D·洛克菲勒在石油贸易早期对炼油厂业务的控制以及Microsoft在软件贸易早期对操作系统的控制所证明的那样。
6. Trademarks, Patents, and Copyrights
6. 商标、专利和版权
These three concepts, along with other related ones, protect the creative work produced by enterprising individuals, thus creating additional incentives for creativity and promoting the creative-destruction model of capitalism. Without these protections, information and creative workers have no defense against their work being freely distributed.
这三个概念，以及其他相关概念，保护有进取心的个人产生的创造性工作，从而为创造力创造额外的激励，并促进资本主义的创造性破坏模式。没有这些保护，信息和创意工作者就无法抵御他们的作品被自由传播。
7. Double-Entry Bookkeeping
7. 复式记账
One of the marvels of modern capitalism has been the bookkeeping system introduced in Genoa in the 14th century. The double-entry system requires that every entry, such as income, also be entered into another corresponding account. Correct double-entry bookkeeping acts as a check on potential accounting errors and allows for accurate records and thus, more accurate behavior by the owner of a firm.
现代资本主义的奇迹之一是14世纪在热那亚引入的簿记系统。复式记账系统要求每个条目，如收入，也输入另一个相应的账户。正确的复式簿记可以检查潜在的会计错误，并允许准确的记录，从而使公司所有者的行为更加准确。
8. Utility (Marginal, Diminishing, Increasing)
8. 效用（边际、递减、递增）
The usefulness of additional units of any good tends to vary with scale. Marginal utility allows us to understand the value of one additional unit, and in most practical areas of life, that utility diminishes at some point. On the other hand, in some cases, additional units are subject to a “critical point” where the utility function jumps discretely up or down. As an example, giving water to a thirsty man has diminishing marginal utility with each additional unit, and can eventually kill him with enough units.
任何商品的额外单位的有用性往往随规模而变化。边际效用使我们能够理解一个额外单位的价值，在生活的大多数实际领域，这种效用在某个时候会减少。另一方面，在某些情况下，附加单元会受到“临界点”的影响，在该临界点中，效用函数离散地向上或向下跳跃。举个例子，给一个口渴的人喝水，每增加一个单位，边际效用就会递减，最终可以用足够的单位杀死他。
9. Bribery
9. 贿赂
Often ignored in mainstream economics, the concept of bribery is central to human systems: Given the chance, it is often easier to pay a certain agent to look the other way than to follow the rules. The enforcer of the rules is then neutralized. This principal/agent problem can be seen as a form of arbitrage.
贿赂的概念在主流经济学中经常被忽视，但它是人类系统的核心：如果有机会，付钱给某个代理人看而不见往往比遵守规则更容易。然后，规则的执行者被中和。这种委托人/代理问题可以看作是套利的一种形式。
10. Arbitrage
10. 套利
Given two markets selling an identical good, an arbitrage exists if the good can profitably be bought in one market and sold at a profit in the other. This model is simple on its face, but can present itself in disguised forms: The only gas station in a 50-mile radius is also an arbitrage as it can buy gasoline and sell it at the desired profit (temporarily) without interference. Nearly all arbitrage situations eventually disappear as they are discovered and exploited.
假设两个市场出售相同的商品，如果该商品可以在一个市场上有利可图地购买并在另一个市场以盈利出售，则存在套利。这种模式表面上很简单，但可以伪装的形式呈现：半径50英里内唯一的加油站也是一种套利，因为它可以购买汽油并以预期的利润（暂时）出售，而不会受到干扰。几乎所有套利情况最终都会随着被发现和利用而消失。
11. Supply and Demand
第11章 供求关系
The basic equation of biological and economic life is one of limited supply of necessary goods and competition for those goods. Just as biological entities compete for limited usable energy, so too do economic entities compete for limited customer wealth and limited demand for their products. The point at which supply and demand for a given good are equal is called an equilibrium; however, in practical life, equilibrium points tend to be dynamic and changing, never static.
生物和经济生活的基本等式是必需品供应有限和对这些商品的竞争。正如生物实体争夺有限的可用能源一样，经济实体也在争夺有限的客户财富和对其产品的有限需求。给定商品的供求相等的点称为均衡;然而，在实际生活中，平衡点往往是动态的和变化的，从来不是静态的。
12. Scarcity
12. 稀缺性
Game theory describes situations of conflict, limited resources, and competition. Given a certain situation and a limited amount of resources and time, what decisions are competitors likely to make, and which should they make? One important note is that traditional game theory may describe humans as more rational than they really are. Game theory is theory, after all.
博弈论描述了冲突、资源有限和竞争的情况。在某种情况下，在有限的资源和时间下，竞争对手可能会做出什么决定，他们应该做出什么决定？一个重要的注意事项是，传统的博弈论可能将人类描述为比实际情况更理性。毕竟，博弈论就是理论。
13. Mr. Market
13. 市场先生
Mr. Market was introduced by the investor Benjamin Graham in his seminal book The Intelligent Investor to represent the vicissitudes of the financial markets. As Graham explains, the markets are a bit like a moody neighbor, sometimes waking up happy and sometimes waking up sad – your job as an investor is to take advantage of him in his bad moods and sell to him in his good moods. This attitude is contrasted to an efficient-market hypothesis in which Mr. Market always wakes up in the middle of the bed, never feeling overly strong in either direction.
投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）在他的开创性著作《聪明的投资者》（The Intelligent Investor）中介绍了市场先生，以代表金融市场的变迁。正如格雷厄姆所解释的那样，市场有点像一个喜怒无常的邻居，有时醒来时很开心，有时醒来很悲伤——作为投资者，你的工作就是利用他的坏心情，在他的好心情下卖给他。这种态度与有效市场假说形成鲜明对比，在这种假说中，市场先生总是在床中间醒来，从不觉得自己对任何一个方向都过于强势。
The Mental Models of Military and War
军事与战争的心智模型
1. Seeing the Front
1. 看前面
One of the most valuable military tactics is the habit of “personally seeing the front” before making decisions – not always relying on advisors, maps, and reports, all of which can be either faulty or biased. The Map/Territory model illustrates the problem with not seeing the front, as does the incentive model. Leaders of any organization can generally benefit from seeing the front, as not only does it provide firsthand information, but it also tends to improve the quality of secondhand information.
最有价值的军事战术之一是在做出决定之前“亲自看到前线”的习惯——并不总是依赖顾问、地图和报告，所有这些都可能是错误的或有偏见的。地图/区域模型说明了看不到正面的问题，激励模型也是如此。任何组织的领导者通常都可以从看到前线中受益，因为它不仅提供第一手信息，而且还倾向于提高二手信息的质量。
2. Asymmetric Warfare
2. 不对称战争
The asymmetry model leads to an application in warfare whereby one side seemingly “plays by different rules” than the other side due to circumstance. Generally, this model is applied by an insurgency with limited resources. Unable to out-muscle their opponents, asymmetric fighters use other tactics, as with terrorism creating fear that’s disproportionate to their actual destructive ability.
不对称模型导致了战争中的应用，即一方似乎由于环境而与另一方“按照不同的规则行事”。一般来说，这种模式是由资源有限的叛乱分子应用的。由于无法战胜对手，不对称战士使用其他战术，就像恐怖主义制造与他们的实际破坏能力不成比例的恐惧一样。
3. Two-Front War 3. 双线战争
The Second World War was a good example of a two-front war. Once Russia and Germany became enemies, Germany was forced to split its troops and send them to separate fronts, weakening their impact on either front. In practical life, opening a two-front war can often be a useful tactic, as can solving a two-front war or avoiding one, as in the example of an organization tamping down internal discord to focus on its competitors.
第二次世界大战是双线战争的一个很好的例子。一旦俄罗斯和德国成为敌人，德国就被迫分裂军队，将他们派往不同的战线，削弱了他们对任何一条战线的影响。在现实生活中，开启双线战争通常是一种有用的策略，解决或避免两线战争也可以，例如组织平息内部不和以专注于竞争对手的例子。
4. Counterinsurgency
4. 平叛
Though asymmetric insurgent warfare can be extremely effective, over time competitors have also developed counterinsurgency strategies. Recently and famously, General David Petraeus of the United States led the development of counterinsurgency plans that involved no additional force but substantial additional gains. Tit-for-tat warfare or competition will often lead to a feedback loop that demands insurgency and counterinsurgency.
虽然不对称的叛乱战争可能非常有效，但随着时间的推移，竞争对手也制定了反叛乱战略。最近，著名的是美国将军大卫·彼得雷乌斯（David Petraeus）领导制定了反叛乱计划，该计划不涉及额外的部队，但涉及大量额外的收益。针锋相对的战争或竞争往往会导致一个反馈循环，需要叛乱和反叛乱。
5. Mutually Assured Destruction
5. 相互确保销毁
Somewhat paradoxically, the stronger two opponents become, the less likely they may be to destroy one another. This process of mutually assured destruction occurs not just in warfare, as with the development of global nuclear warheads, but also in business, as with the avoidance of destructive price wars between competitors. However, in a fat-tailed world, it is also possible that mutually assured destruction scenarios simply make destruction more severe in the event of a mistake (pushing destruction into the “tails” of the distribution).
有点矛盾的是，两个对手变得越强大，他们互相摧毁的可能性就越小。这种相互确保销毁的过程不仅发生在战争中，如全球核弹头的发展，而且发生在商业中，如避免竞争对手之间的破坏性价格战。然而，在一个肥尾世界中，相互保证的毁灭场景也有可能只是在发生错误时使破坏更加严重（将破坏推入分配的“尾巴”）。
The Mental Models of Human Nature and Judgment
人性与判断的心智模型
1. Trust
1. 信任
Fundamentally, the modern world operates on trust. Familial trust is generally a given (otherwise we’d have a hell of a time surviving), but we also choose to trust chefs, clerks, drivers, factory workers, executives, and many others. A trusting system is one that tends to work most efficiently; the rewards of trust are extremely high.
从根本上说，现代世界是建立在信任之上的。家庭信任通常是给定的（否则我们将有一段地狱般的生存时间），但我们也选择信任厨师、文员、司机、工厂工人、高管和许多其他人。信任系统往往是最有效的系统;信任的回报是极高的。
2. Bias from Incentives
2. 激励措施的偏见
Highly responsive to incentives, humans have perhaps the most varied and hardest to understand set of incentives in the animal kingdom. This causes us to distort our thinking when it is in our own interest to do so. A wonderful example is a salesman truly believing that his product will improve the lives of its users. It’s not merely convenient that he sells the product; the fact of his selling the product causes a very real bias in his own thinking.
人类对激励措施反应灵敏，可能是动物王国中最多样化和最难理解的激励措施。这导致我们在符合我们自身利益的情况下扭曲我们的思维。一个很好的例子是，一个销售人员真正相信他的产品将改善用户的生活。他卖产品不仅方便;他销售产品的事实在他自己的思维中引起了非常真实的偏见。
3. Pavlovian Association
3. 巴甫洛夫协会
Ivan Pavlov very effectively demonstrated that animals can respond not just to direct incentives but also to associated objects; remember the famous dogs salivating at the ring of a bell. Human beings are much the same and can feel positive and negative emotion towards intangible objects, with the emotion coming from past associations rather than direct effects.
伊万·巴甫洛夫非常有效地证明，动物不仅可以对直接激励做出反应，还可以对相关物体做出反应;记住那些在铃铛铃声中垂涎三尺的著名狗。人类大致相同，可以对无形物体产生积极和消极的情绪，情绪来自过去的联想而不是直接影响。
4. Tendency to Feel Envy & Jealousy
4. 嫉妒和嫉妒的倾向
Humans have a tendency to feel envious of those receiving more than they are, and a desire “get what is theirs” in due course. The tendency towards envy is strong enough to drive otherwise irrational behavior, but is as old as humanity itself. Any system ignorant of envy effects will tend to self-immolate over time.
人类倾向于嫉妒那些得到比他们更多的人，并渴望在适当的时候“得到属于他们的东西”。嫉妒的倾向足够强烈，足以驱动其他非理性的行为，但与人类本身一样古老。任何对嫉妒效应一无所知的系统都会随着时间的推移而倾向于自焚。
5. Tendency to Distort Due to Liking/Loving or Disliking/Hating
5. 因喜欢/爱或不喜欢/恨而扭曲的倾向
Based on past association, stereotyping, ideology, genetic influence, or direct experience, humans have a tendency to distort their thinking in favor of people or things that they like and against people or things they dislike. This tendency leads to overrating the things we like and underrating or broadly categorizing things we dislike, often missing crucial nuances in the process.
基于过去的联想、刻板印象、意识形态、遗传影响或直接经验，人类倾向于扭曲他们的思维，以支持他们喜欢的人或事物，反对他们不喜欢的人或事物。这种倾向导致高估我们喜欢的东西，低估或广泛分类我们不喜欢的东西，往往在这个过程中错过关键的细微差别。
6. Denial
6. 拒绝
Anyone who has been alive long enough realizes that, as the saying goes, “denial is not just a river in Africa.” This is powerfully demonstrated in situations like war or drug abuse, where denial has powerful destructive effects but allows for behavioral inertia. Denying reality can be a coping mechanism, a survival mechanism, or a purposeful tactic.
任何活得足够长的人都会意识到，正如俗话所说，“否认不仅仅是非洲的一条河流”。这在战争或药物滥用等情况下得到了有力的证明，在这些情况下，否认具有强大的破坏性影响，但允许行为惯性。否认现实可以是一种应对机制，一种生存机制，或者一种有目的的策略。
7. Availability Heuristic
7. 可用性启发式
One of the most useful findings of modern psychology is what Daniel Kahneman calls the Availability Bias or Heuristic: We tend to most easily recall what is salient, important, frequent, and recent. The brain has its own energy-saving and inertial tendencies that we have little control over – the availability heuristic is likely one of them. Having a truly comprehensive memory would be debilitating. Some sub-examples of the availability heuristic include the Anchoring and Sunk Cost Tendencies.
现代心理学最有用的发现之一是丹尼尔·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）所说的可用性偏差或启发式：我们倾向于最容易回忆起突出的，重要的，频繁的和最近的。大脑有自己的节能和惯性倾向，我们几乎无法控制——可用性启发式可能是其中之一。拥有真正全面的记忆会让人虚弱。可用性启发式的一些子示例包括锚定和沉没成本趋势。
8. Representativeness Heuristic
8. 代表性启发式
The three major psychological findings that fall under Representativeness, also defined by Kahneman and his partner Tversky, are:
属于代表性的三个主要心理学发现，也由卡尼曼和他的搭档特沃斯基定义，是：
a. Failure to Account for Base Rates
一个。未能考虑基本费率
An unconscious failure to look at past odds in determining current or future behavior.
在确定当前或未来行为时无意识地未能查看过去的几率。
b. Tendency to Stereotype
b.刻板印象倾向
The tendency to broadly generalize and categorize rather than look for specific nuance. Like availability, this is generally a necessary trait for energy-saving in the brain.
倾向于广泛概括和分类，而不是寻找具体的细微差别。像可用性一样，这通常是大脑节能的必要特征。
c. Failure to See False Conjunctions
c. 没有看到假连词
Most famously demonstrated by the Linda Test, the same two psychologists showed that students chose more vividly described individuals as more likely to fit into a predefined category than individuals with broader, more inclusive, but less vivid descriptions, even if the vivid example was a mere subset of the more inclusive set. These specific examples are seen as more representative of the category than those with the broader but vaguer descriptions, in violation of logic and probability.
最著名的是琳达测试，同样的两位心理学家表明，学生选择描述更生动的个体，比描述更广泛、更具包容性但描述不那么生动的个体更有可能属于预定义的类别，即使生动的例子只是更具包容性的集合的子集。这些具体的例子被认为比那些描述更广泛但更模糊的例子更能代表该类别，这违反了逻辑和概率。
9. Social Proof (Safety in Numbers)
9. 社会证明（数字安全）
Human beings are one of many social species, along with bees, ants, and chimps, among many more. We have a DNA-level instinct to seek safety in numbers and will look for social guidance of our behavior. This instinct creates a cohesive sense of cooperation and culture which would not otherwise be possible but also leads us to do foolish things if our group is doing them as well.
人类是众多社会物种之一，还有蜜蜂、蚂蚁和黑猩猩等等。我们有DNA水平的本能，在数字中寻求安全，并会寻找社会指导我们的行为。这种本能创造了一种有凝聚力的合作和文化意识，否则这是不可能的，但如果我们的团队也在做，也会让我们做愚蠢的事情。
10. Narrative Instinct 10.叙事本能
Human beings have been appropriately called “the storytelling animal” because of our instinct to construct and seek meaning in narrative. It’s likely that long before we developed the ability to write or to create objects, we were telling stories and thinking in stories. Nearly all social organizations, from religious institutions to corporations to nation-states, run on constructions of the narrative instinct.
人类被恰当地称为“讲故事的动物”，因为我们本能地在叙事中构建和寻求意义。很可能早在我们发展出写作或创造物体的能力之前，我们就是在讲故事和在故事中思考。几乎所有的社会组织，从宗教机构到公司再到民族国家，都建立在叙事本能的建构之上。
11. Curiosity Instinct
11.好奇心本能
We like to call other species curious, but we are the most curious of all, an instinct which led us out of the savanna and led us to learn a great deal about the world around us, using that information to create the world in our collective minds. The curiosity instinct leads to unique human behavior and forms of organization like the scientific enterprise. Even before there were direct incentives to innovate, humans innovated out of curiosity.
我们喜欢称其他物种为好奇物种，但我们是最好奇的，这种本能引导我们走出大草原，引导我们了解周围的世界，利用这些信息在我们的集体头脑中创造世界。好奇心本能导致了独特的人类行为和组织形式，如科学事业。甚至在有直接的创新动机之前，人类就出于好奇心进行了创新。
12. Language Instinct
12. 语言本能
The psychologist Steven Pinker calls our DNA-level instinct to learn grammatically constructed language the Language Instinct. The idea that grammatical language is not a simple cultural artifact was first popularized by the linguist Noam Chomsky. As we saw with the narrative instinct, we use these instincts to create shared stories, as well as to gossip, solve problems, and fight, among other things. Grammatically ordered language theoretically carries infinite varying meaning.
心理学家史蒂文·平克（Steven Pinker）将我们学习语法构建语言的DNA级本能称为语言本能。语法语言不是简单的文化人工制品的观点最早是由语言学家诺姆·乔姆斯基（Noam Chomsky）推广的。正如我们在叙事本能中看到的那样，我们利用这些本能来创造共同的故事，以及八卦、解决问题和战斗等。语法有序的语言在理论上具有无限不同的意义。
13. First-Conclusion Bias
13. 第一结论偏差
As Charlie Munger famously pointed out, the mind works a bit like a sperm and egg: the first idea gets in and then the mind shuts. Like many other tendencies, this is probably an energy-saving device. Our tendency to settle on first conclusions leads us to accept many erroneous results and cease asking questions; it can be countered with some simple and useful mental routines.
正如查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）的名言，大脑的工作方式有点像精子和卵子：第一个想法进入，然后头脑关闭。像许多其他趋势一样，这可能是一种节能设备。我们倾向于确定第一个结论，导致我们接受许多错误的结果并停止提问;它可以通过一些简单而有用的心理程序来对抗。
14. Tendency to Overgeneralize from Small Samples
14. 从小样本过度概括的倾向
It’s important for human beings to generalize; we need not see every instance to understand the general rule, and this works to our advantage. With generalizing, however, comes a subset of errors when we forget about the Law of Large Numbers and act as if it does not exist. We take a small number of instances and create a general category, even if we have no statistically sound basis for the conclusion.
对人类来说，概括很重要;我们不需要看到每个实例来理解一般规则，这对我们有利。然而，随着泛化，当我们忘记大数定律并表现得好像它不存在时，就会出现一个错误子集。我们采用少量实例并创建一个一般类别，即使我们没有统计上可靠的结论基础。
15. Relative Satisfaction/Misery Tendencies
15. 相对满足/痛苦倾向
The envy tendency is probably the most obvious manifestation of the relative satisfaction tendency, but nearly all studies of human happiness show that it is related to the state of the person relative to either their past or their peers, not absolute. These relative tendencies cause us great misery or happiness in a very wide variety of objectively different situations and make us poor predictors of our own behavior and feelings.
嫉妒倾向可能是相对满意度趋势最明显的表现，但几乎所有关于人类幸福的研究表明，它与一个人相对于过去或同龄人的状态有关，而不是绝对的。这些相对倾向在各种各样的客观不同情况下给我们带来巨大的痛苦或幸福，使我们对自己的行为和感受的预测能力不佳。
16. Commitment & Consistency Bias
16. 承诺和一致性偏见
As psychologists have frequently and famously demonstrated, humans are subject to a bias towards keeping their prior commitments and staying consistent with our prior selves when possible. This trait is necessary for social cohesion: people who often change their conclusions and habits are often distrusted. Yet our bias towards staying consistent can become, as one wag put it, a “hobgoblin of foolish minds” – when it is combined with the first-conclusion bias, we end up landing on poor answers and standing pat in the face of great evidence.
正如心理学家经常和著名的证明的那样，人类会偏向于遵守他们先前的承诺，并在可能的情况下与我们先前的自我保持一致。这种特质对于社会凝聚力是必要的：经常改变结论和习惯的人往往不被信任。然而，正如一位摇摆不定的人所说，我们对保持一致的偏见可能会成为“愚蠢头脑的妖精”——当它与第一结论偏见相结合时，我们最终会落在糟糕的答案上，并在大量证据面前袖手旁观。
17. Hindsight Bias
17. 后见之明偏见
Once we know the outcome, it’s nearly impossible to turn back the clock mentally. Our narrative instinct leads us to reason that we knew it all along (whatever “it” is), when in fact we are often simply reasoning post-hoc with information not available to us before the event. The hindsight bias explains why it’s wise to keep a journal of important decisions for an unaltered record and to re-examine our beliefs when we convince ourselves that we knew it all along.
一旦我们知道结果，几乎不可能在精神上让时间倒流。我们的叙事本能使我们推理我们一直都知道它（无论“它”是什么），而事实上，我们通常只是在事后推理，在事件发生之前我们无法获得的信息。事后诸葛亮的偏见解释了为什么明智的做法是保留重要决策的日记，以保持不变的记录，并在我们说服自己我们一直都知道时重新审视我们的信念。
18. Sensitivity to Fairness
18. 对公平的敏感性
Justice runs deep in our veins. In another illustration of our relative sense of well-being, we are careful arbiters of what is fair. Violations of fairness can be considered grounds for reciprocal action, or at least distrust. Yet fairness itself seems to be a moving target. What is seen as fair and just in one time and place may not be in another. Consider that slavery has been seen as perfectly natural and perfectly unnatural in alternating phases of human existence.
正义深深地流淌在我们的血管中。在另一个关于我们相对幸福感的例子中，我们是公平的谨慎仲裁者。违反公平可以被视为采取对等行动的理由，或者至少是不信任的理由。然而，公平本身似乎是一个不断变化的目标。在一个时间和地点被视为公平和公正的东西在另一个时间和地点可能不是。考虑到奴隶制在人类生存的交替阶段被视为完全自然和完全不自然。
19. Tendency to Overestimate Consistency of Behavior (Fundamental Attribution Error)
19. 高估行为一致性的倾向（基本归因错误）
We tend to over-ascribe the behavior of others to their innate traits rather than to situational factors, leading us to overestimate how consistent that behavior will be in the future. In such a situation, predicting behavior seems not very difficult. Of course, in practice this assumption is consistently demonstrated to be wrong, and we are consequently surprised when others do not act in accordance with the “innate” traits we’ve endowed them with.
我们倾向于将他人的行为过度归因于他们的先天特征，而不是情境因素，导致我们高估了这种行为在未来的一致性。在这种情况下，预测行为似乎并不困难。当然，在实践中，这种假设一直被证明是错误的，因此，当其他人没有按照我们赋予他们的“先天”特征行事时，我们会感到惊讶。
20. Influence of Stress (Including Breaking Points)
20. 应力（包括断裂点）的影响
Stress causes both mental and physiological responses and tends to amplify the other biases. Almost all human mental biases become worse in the face of stress as the body goes into a fight-or-flight response, relying purely on instinct without the emergency brake of Daniel Kahneman’s “System 2” type of reasoning. Stress causes hasty decisions, immediacy, and a fallback to habit, thus giving rise to the elite soldiers’ motto: “In the thick of battle, you will not rise to the level of your expectations, but fall to the level of your training.”
压力会引起心理和生理反应，并倾向于放大其他偏见。面对压力，几乎所有人类的心理偏见都会变得更糟，因为身体会进入战斗或逃跑反应，纯粹依靠本能，没有丹尼尔·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）的“系统2”式推理的紧急刹车。压力会导致仓促的决定、即时性和习惯的后备，从而产生精英士兵的座右铭：“在激烈的战斗中，你不会上升到你期望的水平，而是下降到你的训练水平。
21. Survivorship Bias
21. 生存偏差
A major problem with historiography – our interpretation of the past – is that history is famously written by the victors. We do not see what Nassim Taleb calls the “silent grave” – the lottery ticket holders who did not win. Thus, we over-attribute success to things done by the successful agent rather than to randomness or luck, and we often learn false lessons by exclusively studying victors without seeing all of the accompanying losers who acted in the same way but were not lucky enough to succeed.
史学的一个主要问题——我们对过去的解释——是历史是由胜利者书写的。我们没有看到纳西姆·塔勒布（Nassim Taleb）所说的“沉默的坟墓”——没有中奖的彩票持有者。因此，我们过分将成功归因于成功主体所做的事情，而不是随机性或运气，我们经常通过专门研究胜利者来吸取错误的教训，而没有看到所有以同样方式行事但没有幸运成功的失败者。
22. Tendency to Want to Do Something (Fight/Flight, Intervention, Demonstration of Value, etc.)
22. 想做某事的倾向（战斗/逃跑、干预、价值展示等）
We might term this Boredom Syndrome: Most humans have the tendency to need to act, even when their actions are not needed. We also tend to offer solutions even when we do not have knowledge to solve the problem.
我们可以称之为无聊综合症：大多数人都有需要采取行动的倾向，即使他们的行动是不需要的。即使我们没有解决问题的知识，我们也倾向于提供解决方案。
23. Falsification / Confirmation Bias
23. 伪造/确认偏见
What a man wishes, he also believes. Similarly, what we believe is what we choose to see. This is commonly referred to as the confirmation bias. It is a deeply ingrained mental habit, both energy-conserving and comfortable, to look for confirmations of long-held wisdom rather than violations. Yet the scientific process – including hypothesis generation, blind testing when needed, and objective statistical rigor – is designed to root out precisely the opposite, which is why it works so well when followed.
男人的愿望，他也相信。同样，我们相信的就是我们选择看到的。这通常被称为确认偏差。这是一种根深蒂固的心理习惯，既节能又舒适，寻找长期智慧的确认而不是侵犯。然而，科学过程——包括假设生成、必要时的盲测和客观的统计严谨性——旨在根除恰恰相反的情况，这就是为什么它在遵循时如此有效。
The modern scientific enterprise operates under the principle of falsification: A method is termed scientific if it can be stated in such a way that a certain defined result would cause it to be proved false. Pseudo-knowledge and pseudo-science operate and propagate by being unfalsifiable – as with astrology, we are unable to prove them either correct or incorrect because the conditions under which they would be shown false are never stated.
现代科学事业在证伪原则下运作：如果一种方法可以这样陈述，即某种定义的结果会导致它被证明是错误的，那么它就被称为科学方法。伪知识和伪科学通过不可证伪来运作和传播——就像占星术一样，我们无法证明它们的正确或不正确，因为它们被证明是错误的条件从未被陈述过。

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/mental-model