沃顿商学院全套笔记-十-
沃顿商学院全套笔记（十）
沃顿商学院《商务基础》｜Business Foundations Specialization｜（中英字幕） - P142：26_总结.zh_en - GPT中英字幕课程资源 - BV1R34y1c74c
All right， you made it through the course。
Congratulations。 Thank you for your time。 I thought that rather than me just saying goodbye in this last module。
after all these， hours we spend together， I owe you a little more of a personal goodbye。 By now。
you already might be sick and tired of my personal examples， but here's one last， one。
I promise it's the last story of this course。 And it starts in the winter in Philadelphia。
What happened？ Well， here's the story。 This is a picture of my son Jan and myself。
The thing behind us， however， is not our car。 At that time。
my wife and I had two teenage drivers in the house。
And in all of you having a car that accelerates from zero to sixty miles per hour in four。
seconds was not the right vehicle for our young drivers。 But Jan and I really liked electric cars。
So we wanted to try one out。 And we agreed on the plan to rent a Tesla。 Now， at that time。
this was a couple of years ago， renting a Tesla was really hard。
So we went on this platform called Tool。 If you have not seen Tool， it basically works like Airbnb。
It's just for cars。 On Tool， I met this gentleman by the name of Marlon。 Great guy， super friendly。
super fun。 But just for the record， this is his profile picture on Tool。
Not my inability to use an iPhone as a camera。
Marlon was willing to rent his artist more or less for a weekend。
Now driving around in the car was fun， especially for someone who has mostly been driving a。
Toyota Prius before。 Now， I don't know if this has ever happened to you。
but it was winter in Philly and it， was cold。 And what can happen when it gets cold is that the air in the tire compresses。
So the tire alarm went on over and over again。 So we had to do the most embarrassing thing you can do with a Tesla。
which is what？ Right， pull into a gas station。 That fixed the problem。 But after one hour。
the tire alarm went on again。 We had enough and just called it a day。 Sunday morning comes along。
I leave you alone with my religious beliefs， but most Sundays we go to church。
So we took the Tesla and parked it behind the church。
Some 90 minutes later we come out of the church and what do we see behind our Tesla？ A tow truck。
This is when I got really mad。 I said， get away from my car。 This is fully legal parking here。
Now the tow truck driver was a little puzzled。 He said， well。
I got the service request that this guy is in need for new tires。
And so I took the liberty to replace all your tires， you sir， I got to go。 Wow。
What a magic customer experience。 I didn't ask for this service。 I didn't call the tow truck。
My demand was fulfilled before I said a word to Tesla。
I share this story as I think it offers us a glimpse into the future of operations。 First。
to really delight customers， to really maximize willingness to pay， future operations。
will not just wait for the customer demanding something。 They will know what the customer needs。
maybe even before the customer knows herself。 That gets us to the power of big data and predictive analytics。
Second， even in the future， great operations will still have to keep fulfillment costs low。
There still will be an efficiency frontier。 Note that this request was not handled by a Tesla mechanic。
the diagnostic cabinet automatically， via the onboard electronics。
And the mechanic was sourced via subcontracting， capacity on demand。
Tesla does not have to pay when the mechanic is idle。 In my example。
willingness to pay went up and the fulfillment costs were kept low。
That is the key to good operations。 Any industry you can think of is going through massive changes caused by digitization。
Moreover， the rapidly changing geopolitics in our world will dramatically impact future， operations。
But in all this turmoil， one thing is clear to me。
Despite what you hear from some self-declared technology gurus talking about artificial intelligence。
and robots， we will not be running out of work。 There will be students who need to be educated。
patients that need medical care， and new technologies， that have to be developed。
It also looks like the Western world has to relearn how to manufacture products。
So in my arguably biased view， operations management， the science of analyzing and improving work。
has never been more interesting。 Whatever work you might be doing。
I hope you found this course helpful。 Thank you for all the work you put in。
Stay in touch with your Twitter or LinkedIn。 For now， goodbye or all of you does it。 Thank you。
for watching。 [BLANK_AUDIO]。
沃顿商学院《商务基础》｜Business Foundations Specialization｜（中英字幕） - P143：0_框架简介7 55.zh_en - GPT中英字幕课程资源 - BV1R34y1c74c
So， welcome to my Coursera course in Introduction to Operations Management。
This is a six week long course， and today is the first session。
What I thought we would do in this first session is instead of me bombarding you with the logistics for this course。
including the homework assignments， the format of the course， the exam， the course book。
and all these other good things， we just get started。
I promise I'll make up for the logistics later on。 So， what is Operations Management about？
The purpose of this first session is to think a little bit about what Operations Management does。
and how it relates to the business strategy of a firm。
This will also help us think about what type of goals management might set for in operation。
and that in turn guides what performance measures that we're going to track。 So， let's get started。
Let's start with two very specific examples。 It's soon lunchtime。
and so consumers are thinking about where should we go for lunch today。 So。
we have our consumer here who is heading to a restaurant， and now ask yourself。
what does the consumer want out of the operations of this restaurant？ Well， first of all。
they want to get this language quickly。 Lunch break is short， people are hungry。
and so the time that they have to wait in order to get this sandwich。
isn't pretty important variable for the consumer。 Second。
consumers differ in what type of sandwiches that they like， and so the ability of the restaurant。
to really make sandwiches that are appealing to customers is important。
They have to be able to provide a variety of sandwiches， which means either having a big menu。
or being able to make these sandwiches to very specific customer instructions。 Third。
the customer cares about quality。
Now quality， that could be the ambiance of the restaurant， the friendliness of the staff。
It could be the hygiene of the place， it could be making sure that the cheese weighs exactly what it says on the recipe。
Quality will have a number of dimensions that we will explore later on in this course。
And then finally， of course， price matters， and so the consumer doesn't want to spend too much money for his lunch。
Now， let's go for the restaurant here， and let's look at the operations of a hospital。 Same thing。
we have a consumer arriving to， for example， the emergency room of a hospital。
so we have our unhappy consumer here， who is coming to the hospital， and we're now asking ourselves。
well， what does the consumer want the operations of this hospital to do？ Again， time is critical。
Wait times in emergency rooms in this country can often take as long as five hours。
and so the person wants to be seen quickly。 They want to make sure that they get the care that is right for them。
instead of the care that is right for the person in the bed next to them。
They want to receive this care in a high quality manner。
making sure that it is in accordance to the latest evidence-based medicine。
that the doctors and nurses have washed their hands， that this place is clean and everything else。
And then finally， they are the chargers and the co-pay that the consumer and/or his insurance will have to pay for the service。
So sandwich store or emergency room， we see that an operation has to be able to perform well along four dimensions。
The first one is a cost dimension。 That's probably what most of us associate with operations management is just providing a high efficient operation。
The second dimension is variety。 Now to be fair， consumers don't care about variety per se。
they just want something that they like。 So really variety measures the flexibility of an operation to provide goods and services to a heterogeneous customer base。
The third dimension is quality。 The quality dimension is broken up into two sub dimensions。
The first one is called performance quality， the second one is called conformance quality。
Performance quality measures how good of a product or service we provide。
Most of us would agree that the BMW is a high-performing car。 Not because how it is built。
but primarily because how it is being designed。 The second dimension then is conformance quality。
It really captures to what extent we are able to deliver on the promise that we have made to the customer。
And then finally there is time limits。 Our ability to provide a quick response to demand。
Those four dimensions are important for two reasons。
First of all they are the goals that we strive for in an operation and so they will guide what type of performance measures we track。
And then they are really also at the heart of designing the business strategy。
These four dimensions give us opportunity to differentiate our operations from other。
thereby potentially providing us with a competitive advantage。
Now imagine you get hired as a consultant to Subway and you would be asked to come up with a performance measurement system that tracks these four dimensions that we just discussed。
What would you measure？ Well on the cost side you would start potentially looking at the labor productivity。
You could imagine measures such as the sandwiches per employee， the customer served per employee。
or the minute it takes you to make a sandwich or other measures like that。
You could also look at the customer's per restaurant to measure to what extent you are going to efficiently use the real estate investment that you have by renting the restaurant。
Now how about the variety？ On the variety side， again our idea of varieties that we will look at。
are we able to meet the heterogeneous customer preferences？
Well a simple measure for that would simply be looking at the number of items that we have on the menu。
Beyond that if we are making the sandwiches to order。
we could imagine looking at the percentage of customer requests that we are able to fill。
So customers come in， they want extra ladders， extra tomato。
and the percentage of customer requests that we meet would be another good measure of variety。
How about quality？ Remember on the quality side we had the two dimensions。
conformance quality and performance quality。 So performance quality we would probably have to do some customer research。
some survey looking for things about to what extent they like the ambiance of the restaurant。
to what extent they found the courtesy of the staff in line with their expectations or other things。
On the conformance side we would probably look， are we really delivering what we promised？
And so that means we could look at the freshness of the ingredients of the sandwiches。
We could in the extreme case we could go even as far as putting these sandwiches on the scale and just measure whether we could the exact appropriate amount of grams of cheese on the Subway ham and cheese sandwich。
And so that would give us a good measure of conformance quality。
And then timeliness is relatively easy to measure。
customers care about the time that it will take them to get to the sandwich。
And so we could go and measure how many minutes a customer has to wait between entering the store and leaving the store with the sandwich in their hand。
So finally let's talk about strategy。 Strategy guru Michael Porter suggested there are two ways in which an organization can get a competitive advantage。
Either to cost leadership or through differentiation。 The dimensions that we discussed， variety。
quality and timeliness are three ways in which your operation can differentiate itself from others。
They thereby， by coming up with a great operation。
we're really creating it from competitive advantage。 [BLANK_AUDIO]。
沃顿商学院《商务基础》｜Business Foundations Specialization｜（中英字幕） - P144：1_成本质量品种响应7 56.zh_en - GPT中英字幕课程资源 - BV1R34y1c74c
Now in the last session we discussed how the performance of an operation can be evaluated along four dimensions。
Costing efficiency， the quality， or ability to provide choice to the customer and responsiveness。
Now as the owner of a business of course， I would love my operations to excel at all four of these dimensions。
I would love to provide customers with products as low prices， Provide them with infinite choice。
high quality servers， and all of that immediately provide them the products or services when they want them。
Obviously that is often not possible as the owner of the business， as a manager， as a consultant。
I have to make trade-offs among these four dimensions。
Which is really what we're going to be discussing in this session today。
Let's look at a specific example。
Imagine you're consulting for a call center， The call center currently has problems with response times。
Customers are waiting a long time and only 30% of the incoming calls get served in 20 seconds or less。
See if I take off argument that your goal is to improve this and get 80% of the calls serviced in 20 seconds or less。
This is called a service level and we'll talk more about this later on in this course。
Now there's a tension between the forces of responsiveness and productivity。
In the sense that you could easily imagine a call center that would have an amazing responsiveness。
It would have thousands and thousands of employees staffed。
It would be very inefficient but it would be very responsive。
By its versa you could imagine downsizing the workforce so that you have very few workers answering calls。
Which would be great for your productivity but very poor for your responsiveness。
So there is clearly a trade-off between those two dimensions。
What we want to think that we'll discuss in this course is how you can use your operations and tools in this course。
To really position yourself on this graph。
Because every business needs a different position in terms of the service level。
And the managerial decision is how many employees would you want to hire on a given shift。
Next imagine that you're going out， you're working for this call center。
Our call center is performing about here in terms of the responsiveness and the productivity。
You engage in some benchmarking and you're looking at the number of other industry players。
Along the lines of responsiveness and productivity。
First company that you run into is company A。
Company A you notice is a lot more responsive than you have。
So in other words their customers have to wait less。
But at the same time you notice that they are a lot less efficient。
Then you run into company B， These guys here are having a much better productivity。
But they do this at this cost of the responsiveness。
So they are cheaper than we are but they are a lot slower。
Both of these make good sense because they are really reflecting the trade-off that we just discussed on the previous slide。
Now the next company you run into is competitor C， And competitor C is a puzzle for you。
Really because these guys are both faster than we are and they are cheaper。
We refer to this difference here as the inefficiency in our operation。
And the line that goes， let me say this casually。
The line that includes all the industry players to its lower left。
We refer this as the efficient frontier。
Obviously the goal of an operation is to move out here。
To the upper right of this graph， Now an operation that is currently on the frontier。
In order to move to the upper right here。
It has to innovate and shift the frontier， Everybody else who is off the frontier。
Has the potential to simultaneously improve， Along multiple of the four dimensions of operational performance。
Without having to make necessarily a sacrifice。
These are guys that are just doing the work smarter。
Now one of the things that we will talk about in this course。
Is we will help you evaluate such changes。
Be it on the frontier to a new frontier， Or off the frontier towards more productivity and more responsiveness。
We will help you evaluate these changes before you actually make them。
Making these changes as expensive， And so to the extent that you can evaluate the financial impact。
Before embarking on them， you will have saved yourself a lot of headache。
Now it's time to look at a specific example。
What I've shown on this graph is data from the U。S。 airline industry。
And I plot here on the X-XSC efficiency of the carriers。
As measured by the ratio between the travel miles that they provide。
Relative to the operating expenses， I also measure on the Y-axis。
a number that is called the yield of the airline。
Which takes the ratio between the miles of travel service。
Provided by the airline relative to the revenue。
Now take a look here at this concept of the efficient frontier。
We see a line that roughly looks like this。
And that captures basically all of the big airlines along pretty linear line。
The interesting outlier on this graph is Southwest Airlines。
Southwest has been able to achieve a much higher productivity。
Compared to the big legacy carriers， And thereby has been able to shift the frontier largely done because of the clever labor productivity。
Something that we will analyze later on in this course。
You also notice how a Hawaiian airline has been able to achieve a similar productivity。
Because of this small route network， But has not been able to command the high prices relative to Southwest。
Now this is data from 1996， It's interesting to contrast this data with the year 2011。
In 2011 you notice that the frontier has changed very dramatically。
In fact Southwest that has been playing a cost-graphic game。
Relying on low pricing has emerged as actually an airline that has been able to charge the highest prices in the industry。
Yet they had to sacrifice on the productivity side。
And they've been overtaken on the productivity side by companies such as JetBlue and Virgin America。
So you notice how the frontier in the industry has shifted。
New business model has arrived， companies have played different strategies。
And because of their operations the industry landscape now is a very different one。
Alright， whatever we learned today， First of all we notice that you cannot have it all。
Just like in normal life we have to set priorities。
The business has to prioritize some of the four dimensions of operational performance， Cost。
quality， variety and responsiveness， You have to decide on which of these four dimensions you want to compete。
Second we talked about the concept of the efficient frontier。
I had casually defined the efficient frontier as the line that includes all firms to its lower left。
That was arguably quite casual definition， More formally in academic terms we talk about the line of firms that has no other firm that parader dominates a firm。
That is for example cheaper and faster at the same time。
The efficient frontier is important as our gap is in the company to the frontier measures。
The inefficiency the waste that we have in our operation。
One thing that we will talk about in this course is to clever operations to clever process design。
We will help your firm to move up towards the frontier。
And then once you're on the frontier we'll have to continually innovate to keep on pushing the frontier to the upper right of the graph。
[BLANK_AUDIO]。
沃顿商学院《商务基础》｜Business Foundations Specialization｜（中英字幕） - P145：2_战略营销翻版11 05.zh_en - GPT中英字幕课程资源 - BV1R34y1c74c
[MUSIC]。
So in this section， I want to spend a little time with the framework that I just introduced。
So I can show you what an effective tool it is for planning marketing strategy。
And for facilitating conversation within your company about different assumptions people have。
So let's go back to what the framework said。 As you recall， there were three dimensions。
There was the operational excellent dimension。 There was performance superiority dimension。
And there was customer intimacy dimension。 So the first thing you do in using this framework is to think within your industry for。
your product and your firm， what does it mean to be operational excellent？
Typically these are things like customer service， reliability， cost considerations， delivery。
inventory control， those kinds of things。 But what's important here is that you determine what operational excellence means in your industry。
And so you define that access in terms of what your customers think， your competition thinks。
and you think determines that access。 Similarly with performance superiority。
What does it mean to have the superior performance in your industry？ Financial service。
it's about the performance of stocks or， instruments， financial instruments。
It could be product design， it could be style， it could be technology。
Whatever it means to be product superior or performance superiority， that's what goes on this axis。
that's what this axis is。 And this axis is customer intimacy。
which means you're delivering what the customer wants。 It's about customization。
delivering to what a unique aspects that a customer demands。
And what it means to be truly customer intimate， this is something that P。
Fader is going to discuss in the next section。 But think about what does it mean to be customer intimate in your industry。
That's the first thing to do。 Agree on what these dimensions stand for in your industry for your product or service。
The second thing to do is to determine what fair value is。
Fair value is the expectation that the customer has on each of these dimensions。
And you must meet fair value。 If you're below fair value， customers reject you。
So you've got to be at least at fair value。 What the framework suggests is that you're going to meet fair value on two dimensions and。
be the best on one。 But first you have to determine what are those customer expectations。
And these customer expectations change over time， they're not static。
They change as customer expectations escalate。 So just to give you an example。
let's talk about what would happen in a brand new industry。
and a brand new product enters the market。 As an example， let's think about Apple's iPad。
And when they introduce that product， it kind of changed everybody's expectations for。
what a tablet should be。 When you have a brand new market and they're nothing existed before。
customers' expectations， are at the origin。 They don't have any expectations because the product doesn't exist。
When a new product comes into the marketplace， it tends to enter with a new product feature。
And so when the iPad came in， it came in with a new feature， the product features of that， iPad。
And that became better than what people expected and Apple was wildly successful。 Over time。
people started to expect that。 A tablet had to have at least those features and that became the new fair value。
So there was pressure on Apple to come up with new features and they came up with the， iPad Mini。
They came up with a smaller size screen， a better resolution on the screen， different。
kinds of things that would exceed those expectations。 But over time。
those new features will become the new expectations。 And you can imagine。
as the product gets more and more mature， the fair value or the customer。
expectations can go far out。 If you're in a very mature product category。
customer expectations are quite high。 If you want to enter a mature category。
you really have to deliver products that meet very， high customer expectations。 In most markets。
if the expectations of product features become so high that it's very hard。
to differentiate and be a leader on that。 Many times what you tend to see is movement on the operational act。
So people will deliver those benefits at a cheaper price。 And over time， in mature industries。
these， the competition here， gets very high。 For very efficient， low costs and personal computers。
for example， the features are quite， high and the price is driven down。
And so you see very high expectations on both the operational and the performance superiority。
dimensions。 It tends to be in mature markets that operational excellence is high。
performance superiority， is high， but the customer intimacy line is not as high。
So this tends to be what you'll see in mature product markets。
But you can imagine lots of different scenarios。 For example， in services， personal services。
you might have very high expectations on customer， intimacy。
You expect your hairdresser to cater the hairstyle that they give you to you so it's。
very personalized。 It may be that they use state of the art products。
but perhaps they're not very good at operational， excellence。
So you might see in some market like that， very high expectations on customer intimacy。
very high expectations on performance superiority， but not as high in operational excellence。
The point here is you determine what are these axes and what are customer expectations。
for fair value on each of these axes。 This is actually the hardest part of this framework。
determining what fair value is。 You can do market research on it。
You can kind of predict it based on your experience in the industry。
Some people use the average of all competition to plot this。
Sometimes fair value is at the minimum and all the firms are above fair value on some， dimension。
Other times fair value or customer expectations are higher than any firm can deliver to。
So for example， in the airline industry， I would argue customer expectations are for。
100% on time landings and on time takeoffs， but no firm commits to that or can perform。
to that level。 So in that case， operational excellence might be higher than any firm is delivering to。
So that's the first step in this framework。 Determine the axes and determine where you are。
where your fair value mark is on each， of these axes。
So the next thing you do is you plot how your firm is delivering to fair value。
So let's just for the sake of argument， assume fair value in this industry is here and is。
here and is here。 So then I either do market research or discuss it and try to get some kind of managerial。
insight on where my company is on these different dimensions relative to fair value。
So it may be that below fair value on performance superiority， maybe I'm above fair value on。
operational excellence and I'm kind of hitting the relatively low expectations on customer。
intimacy。 So that's the next thing。 Where is your firm？ In you plot， where's the competition？
So perhaps the competition is way below you in operational excellence but above you in。
performance superiority and also hits the spot on customer intimacy。
Now you're ready to plan strategy。 And what you want to do with this case is plan short term strategy and long term strategy。
So in the short term， what you have to do is if you remember what the framework says。
it says you have to meet fair value on two dimensions and be the best on one。
So if I was the red firm， what I might argue my short term strategy would be is to get up。
to speed on performance superiority because I'm below。 And if I don't keep up with my product。
I might ultimately be， you know， be shaken out， of the market。 And so in the short term。
I might plan strategies to improve my performance superiority。 In the long term， perhaps。
I want to be known as the market leader in operational excellence。
So I need to do what it's going to take to keep that operational excellence leadership。
and become like a Walmart or a Vanguard that's known for being the best at operational excellence。
That's just one example of the kind of strategy you can plan。
But what's great about this framework is it forces everybody to identify their assumptions。
to map in a very complex market what matters to the customer， where customer expectations， are。
where you think the competition is delivering， and where you as a firm are strong and weak。
And it puts it right on one framework。 Now this framework can be used very systematically。
You can run market research studies to actually plot where you and your competition and customer。
expectations are。 The other thing to remember is fair value is not a static concept。
These things change over time。 So you need to map this over time to see where customer expectations are。
The other thing that happens and you have to think about this as a dynamic strategy is。
when you make a move， competition reacts。 They're not just standing still。 So you need to think。
well， if I move here or if I move there， what's competition going， to do？
So it gives you a way to plan those kind of moves over time。 And lastly。
you think about how costly it is to move up with these different kinds of， things。
And that might affect your strategy。 Because it's very， very costly to move along this product axis。
And so you may think about whether or not that's the right short term strategy。
Maybe that's something you're going to do in the long term because you have to invest。
more to be able to move here effectively。 The other thing you need to consider when you think about all of this is that these dimensions。
are not independent。 If I move along the product dimension here。
I'm going to change my cost position。 I'm going to change my efficiency。 So as I move here。
I might be lowering my operational excellence。 And similarly。
as I become more product featured or product focused to deliver to technology， and design。
I may become less customer intimate。 And so you have to think about the interactions of all these things。
But what's very， very nice about this framework is that it's clear and simple and it maps。
in a very direct way some of the intricacies and complexities of your marketplace， of your。
firm and of your competition。 And for that， it's a very， very effective planning tool。 [MUSIC]。
沃顿商学院《商务基础》｜Business Foundations Specialization｜（中英字幕） - P146：3_客户本位如何获利19 03.zh_en - GPT中英字幕课程资源 - BV1R34y1c74c
Well， it's good to see everybody once again。
Let me remind you of where we've been and then talk about where we're going for the。
remainder of my portion of the course。 So here's where we've been。
We've been talking about customer centricity。 We've been motivating it by the fact that the traditional product centric model。
while， it's still common， still the way the most businesses operate， there are some cracks in。
product centricity。 Issues like commoditization， well-informed customers， globalization and so on。
that just， takes some of the edge off of product centricity。 And so customer centricity is emerging。
It seems to be a promising alternative， but it's not well understood。 So people。
companies are using a lot of different words for it， whether it's customer intimacy。
whether it's customer centricity， customer focus， people are using a lot of different。
words and people are implying a lot of different concepts。 For me。
I've offered a very clear definition of what customer centricity means and why。
companies would want to consider it。 And for me， the key to customer centricity is the celebration of customer heterogeneity。
an acknowledgment that customers are different from each other and instead of viewing that。
as a nuisance， oh， we have to treat them differently， it's an opportunity。
It's a terrific opportunity to say， hey， some customers are more valuable than others。
Let's really focus on them to create and extract some of that value。
Let's find more customers like them。 And let's find ways to continue to have relationships with the other customers。
but not necessarily， on the same terms as those really focal customers。
And at the heart of that argument was the concept of customer lifetime value， the idea。
that we're going to judge the goodness of a customer， not so much on the amount of money。
or value that we've already extracted from that customer， but from the amount of money。
or value that we think we can extract and will extract in the future。
So it's this future looking idea。 We're going to judge customers based on what we think they will be worth to us。
And that's just really critical and we're going to continue to really focus on how。
that forward looking， seal the orientation is going to affect and in some cases radically。
change the kinds of decisions we make about how we run our business。
And I mentioned very briefly some of the tactics that we tend to focus on are things。
like customer acquisition， customer retention， customer development。
But I haven't given a lot of specifics yet about how we manage those tactics， how we。
gauge our success at those tactics and how we balance them off against each other in。
order to really understand our customers and again create and extract all that value。
That's what we're going to be doing now。 So this module is all about show me the money。
This module is all about how to really， really understand acquisition， retention and development。
in a very new way because as I've said before those tactics by themselves aren't new。
Companies have been acquiring customers。 They've been retaining and increasing the value of customers for a long。
long time。 But we want to elevate the importance of those ideas。
We want to develop metrics and managerial guidelines to really understand those tactics。
better and drive the business using them。 Not just using them at the margin to squeeze a few more dollars。
So we're really going to dive deep into acquisition， retention and development。
That's what this module is all about。 Ideally a company aspires to be world class on all three of those dimensions。
acquisition， retention and development。 But that's tricky。
In fact it's tough enough to master any one of them， much less two or even three of them。
So what we're going to do is we're going to examine them one at a time but we do want。
to understand the interplay among them。 We do want to understand some of the trade-offs that companies face。
In fact I want to begin by asking you about one of those trade-offs。
So let's imagine that you're running a company， many of you are or you're involved with a， business。
And you're out there， you have your marketing budget and you're spending it appropriately。
on acquisition， retention， development。 But then the CEO comes down and says， "You know what。
I'm going to give you an extra， dollar or $100，000。 You get the idea。
I'm going to give you a little bit of extra money。"。
Which one of those three tactics are you going to spend it on？ No， there's all three are important。
But at the margin， which one do you think is most deserving of that incremental dollar。
that you might have？ In fact， I really want you to think about this。
I want to make this a little quiz question。 So in fact I'll pause for a second and I want you to vote。
Okay？ So I'm counting。 So I want you to raise your hand。
So which one is the most important tactic at the margin？
So how many of you would say it's customer acquisition？ Okay？ How many say customer retention？
Raise them high so I can see。 Okay。 And how many say customer development？ Okay， got it。 All right。
So I've tallied up your votes here and it looks like approximately 5% of you voted for。
customer acquisition。 And of the rest of you， the remaining 95%。
it looks like it's a pretty even split。 So 47。5% for customer retention， 47。5% for development。
At least when I ask this question to students， to managers， to senior executives， different。
companies all around the world， that's the basic split that I get。
Most of the attention seems to be on retention and development and just a few odd balls who。
are saying we should spend that extra dollar on acquisition。
So I'm going to come up with a crisp answer to that question。 Okay？ I don't like it depends。
I want to say at the margin， which one of those would be most important for our ongoing， activities？
So here's what I want to do。 Let's dive into each one of these three tactics and understand it really carefully。
but understand， it in a new way。 Because again， the basic words acquisition retention development aren't new。
but how do we see them， differently when we look at them through the lens of customer centricity？
Or more specifically， how do we see them differently in a world where we're celebrating。
heterogeneity？ Okay？ So that's the theme that's been running through my portion of the course so far and will continue。
Because now we're going to see the big payoff from that celebration of heterogeneity。
So here's what I'm going to do。 For each one of those tactics。
I'm going to lead by asking the same question and then， we're going to dive deeper from there。
So here's the question。 Let's start with customer acquisition。
What metric do firms use to gauge and guide their acquisition activities？
Because there's a lot of different metrics out there that firms use to evaluate how well。
they're doing different parts of their operations。
But when we look at customer acquisition in particular， what's the metric that tells us。
how well we're doing and gives us a forward-looking indication of how well we think we'll be doing？
Now for some of you， you might need to even have a readily available metric for it。
But for many of you， especially those of you， or firms that work in the digital world， very。
often I ask this question and I'll come up with the answer to it right away。
And it comes in the form of three letters。 CPA。 CPA。
And I'm sure many of you know what I'm talking about there。 Cost per acquisition。
Many firms gauge and guide their acquisition activities based on CPA， cost per acquisition。
One of the reasons why they do it is because it's just so visible， especially in this。
day and age where it's much easier to track not only the behavior of customers after we。
acquire them， but the cost of acquiring them in the first place。
So so many companies out there are constantly looking at their CPA and trying to think about。
ways to lower it。 How can we get that CPA down？ How can we bring in more customers for the same number of dollars？
And again， many of you who are out there working， especially focusing on marketing or customer。
acquisition activities in particular know what I'm talking about。
But here's the important point that I want to make。
Focusing your business using CPA to gauge and guide your acquisition activities is a big。
big mistake。 I'm not just saying that it's an imperfect measure。
I'm saying that it's actually a grossly misleading measure if you're using that to guide your。
acquisition activities。 So that's a very radical statement and I want to explain myself how I come up with that logic。
and what you should do about it。 So let me step back for a second and focus on issues that I've raised previously。
which， is the idea of thinking about our customers as assets， right？ Our customers are assets。
In many cases， that's the most important asset that we have。 Now。
I'm not necessarily saying that we're going to put customers formally on the balance， sheets。
although there's a lot of discussion about doing just that， taking customer equity。
and really using it as a formal measure。 I don't necessarily care about the accounting。
but we all agree that customers are assets。 So to the extent that customers are assets。
what do you think about using a CPA-type metric， when it comes to acquiring assets？
Think about other assets that we acquire。 How about employees？ How about technology？
How about lawyers？ Think about those kinds of assets that firms depend upon。
You'd never hear a firm say something like， "Well， she was a lousy lawyer， but she was， cheap。"。
Okay？ When it comes to lawyers， when it comes to employees， what are firms looking for？
They're looking for the best， not necessarily the cheapest。
So why is it that we use this cost-oriented mentality when it comes to our customers？
So my question is， instead of focusing on CPA， what is it that firms should be focusing， on instead？
Think about that for a second。 Instead of CPA， what should it be？ Say it all together with me。
Exactly。 VPA， value per acquisition。 We should be focusing on the upside that the customers can provide to us。
By the way， if you just think about the notion of value per acquisition， what does that sound。
a lot like？ An idea that we've already discussed。 Of course， that's CLV， customer lifetime value。
So let's think about the upside potential that customers have， and then use that number。
to drive the CPA。 Okay？ So we're going to kind of flip the equations around。
One way of thinking about customer lifetime value， and certainly this is the way a lot。
of textbooks present it， and the way a lot of companies think about it， is that they。
say CLV represents the upper bound。 I'm willing to spend up to that amount to acquire a customer。
Makes sense， right？ I certainly don't want to spend more than that because I'm losing money on the customer。
But the CLV is basically a ceiling。 I'm willing to spend up to that amount。
And that's what I want managers and companies to think about。 Here's the ceiling。
This is what I think the customer will be worth。 How much of that money am I willing to spend to acquire that customer？
And then how much of that money do I want to keep and give to my shareholders as current。
and future profits？ So when it comes to thinking about customer acquisition。
I don't want to focus on floors。 I don't want to focus on how low can we bring it。
I want to focus on ceilings instead。 Okay？ I want to understand how high we can go。
And I'm not saying that we should necessarily spend every penny up to CLV， but we're not aspiring。
to spend more money。 That's ridiculous。 What the point is that if we focus on the ceiling instead of the floor。
we'll be willing to spend， a little bit more money at the margin and more importantly。
get better customers in the， process。 So let me give you a very specific example。 So as I said。
in the digital marketing world， the CPA is so tangible。 It's so observable to us。
Any company that's working with Google， for instance， is thinking very carefully about。
what they're spending for every keyword on Google sponsored search。 And they're wondering。
"Should we be spending $4。50 to get someone through this keyword， or， should we be spending $4。49？"。
So you'll have all these arguments about pennies， about CPA。
And so there's a couple of companies that are getting smart about it and saying， "You， know what？
Instead of focusing exclusively on what we're paying to get those customers， let's look。
at what we're getting out of those customers after we acquire them。"， In other words。
let's look at the CLV of customers who we acquire through different kinds of marketing， activities。
And so over here you can see a screenshot of just one article。 It's just， I think。
a very nice typical example of an article and you can see just from the， title alone。
is let's understand the CLV， the lifetime value of the customers whom we've。
acquired through Google sponsored search。 And let's understand how their CLV is different than customers whom we acquire through other。
channels。 And so， well， given you all the details of the study， here's the highlight。
And it tells us that as we sit back and we look at the data that we've collected on customers。
acquired through different kinds of marketing activities， those who were acquired initially。
through Google sponsored search are worth， on average， CLV of about $1，000， whereas customers。
acquired through other channels are worth about $200 less。
So here we are arguing about pennies or dimes， small amounts of money about how much we should。
be spending to acquire customers。 But we find out that there are these huge， dramatic differences。
hundreds of dollars difference， if we use one kind of tactic instead of another。 And CLV is the key。
CLV shows us that there's so much more value lying in our customers that we don't necessarily。
appreciate。 And when we have this cost orientation， not only we don't appreciate it。
but we'll never， realize it。 We'll never actually be able to put it in our pocket。
So I really like this example。 And I wish that this example were more rural than exception。
And we said a lot of companies would kind of step back and do this kind of analysis for。
their existing customers。 And it's not only a matter of doing it for， say。
Google sponsored search versus everything， else， you can do it any which way。 You can say。
let's look at customers who we acquired at one time period versus another。
Let's look at customers who we acquired through one geographic area versus another。
Let's look at customers whose first product purchased from us was one kind of product。
versus another。 Let's look at customers who we acquired through one marketing campaign or another。
So we constantly want to be tagging our customers， understanding different characteristics of。
how and when and where we acquired them。 And then with the little patience。
let's match that information up with what these customers， proved to be worth。
And so we're going to run some CLV models。 We need to wait a little bit of time。
We need to collect more data on them to understand which customers or which groups of customers。
are the most valuable ones。 But by doing so， we can really understand those sources of value and get just some great。
guidance about where we should be spending our next marketing dollars。
So let me summarize this thinking about customer acquisition。 Most and foremost。
you want to avoid having a CPA mentality。 And I mean that not only kind of in a jokey way。
because of course I'm also referring， to CPAs being certified public accountants。
We don't want to think about being counting。 We don't want to think about pennies when it comes to acquiring customers。
We want to focus on ceilings instead of floors when it comes to how we're going to spend。
to acquire customers。 And the celebration of how to rejuvenate is that by understanding the CLV differences。
across customers， that's going to give us some direct ideas about where we should be。
spending the money。 And when we understand where the more valuable customers tend to come from。
let's invest， much more heavily in those search words and those channels and those marketing campaigns。
There's no guarantee that every customer that we get through those activities are going， to be good。
In fact， that's not true at all。 We're always going to get a mix of customers。
The metaphor that I like to use is that we're always fishing for our customers。
This is going to give us some idea of where we should be throwing the lines。
And when we throw the lines or when we throw out the nets， we're going to always pull in。
a heterogeneous mix of customers。 You know what？ Most of them are going to be so-so customers。
But if we can get really smart about where we throw the nets， we can tend to pull in。
just a slightly better mix of customers。 And if we do that more often。
if we do that in a smarter way， those differences can really。
magnify over time and show us that there's actually tremendous value unlocked by just。
being a better fisherman when it comes to customer acquisition。 So a couple of other points here。
Number one， companies need to be a little bit more patient when they're evaluating their。
customer acquisition activities。 Too often companies are looking for an immediate payoff。 Okay？
So we spent this money。 What did we get for it？ My point is， if you're forward looking。
if you're taking the long view as implied by customer， centricity。
then let's wait a little bit of time until we can get a pretty good sense。
of what the value is and what the CLV will be。 And that's going to give us not only better guidance。
but better idea of where to set， that ceiling。 The main point about customer acquisition。
which I've been implying， but let me say it， very plainly。
is that firms are under spending on acquisition by focusing so much of their。
efforts and asking all the time， how little can we spend？ They end up spending very little。
It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy。 And by focusing on tactics and methods to just bring in as many customers as possible。
for the least amount of dollars， they also tend to underachieve。 And that's a problem。
So by being smart， by being careful， by tagging and tracking on customers， by focusing on。
CLV instead of CPA， we can get a lot more money。 We might spend more on acquisition。
but the returns to scale on that are going to be huge。 So that's my piece on customer acquisition。
Let's take a step back now and talk about customer attention。
[MUSIC]。
沃顿商学院《商务基础》｜Business Foundations Specialization｜（中英字幕） - P147：4_客户保留18 24.zh_en - GPT中英字幕课程资源 - BV1R34y1c74c
[ Music ]。
All right， we're back and now we're going to talk about customer retention。
And I hope you know where I'm going with this。 There's really two themes that we're going to see through all of these discussions。
I'm going to begin by asking the same exact question that I asked about customer acquisition。
which is what metric do we use to gauge and guide our retention activities？ And so once again。
there's a very common metric out there。 In fact， it goes by several different names。
Some companies call it a retention rate， some call it a churn rate or a attrition rate。
Let's just explain what it is real quickly， although you probably get the idea if you're not familiar with it already。
We look at all the customers we had say at the beginning of the period。
We ask ourselves how many of them stayed with us。 So what percent of that original chunk of customers stayed with us？
That's the retention rate。 Of course， we can look at what percent of customers left。
And that goes by different names， as I said， a churn rate or a nutrition rate。 So either way。
whether you look at the glasses half full or half empty。
it's that kind of metric that firms use to say， how good a job are we doing at keeping our existing customers。
So again， very common metric。 And here's my view on it。 Unlike CPA， cost per acquisition。
which I view as a very bad metric， I see the retention rate or the churn rate as a pretty good metric。
but you have to be careful about how you look at it， how you use it。
and how you make decisions based on it。 So I'm going to start with a real world example。
One of the things that I like to do is I like to look at the information that public companies put out there。
about their retention rates or their attrition rates。
What did they say about how many of their customers stick around？
And what implications does it have？ How do they manage around the attrition rate？
Instead of viewing it as just a nice to know number。
Let's understand how we can actually use that information to go all the way to even coming up with the financial value。
of the entire customer base。 So here's the example that I'd like to work with。
The example comes from Vodafone， a big cell phone operator。 I'm sure many of you are familiar with。
And they actually put statements out there to their investors to say， "Here's our attrition rate。
and here's how it varies over time。"， And so you can see the graphic right here。
And from a very kind of quick look， it appears that there， a attrition rate on an annualized basis。
as we look at it from one quarter to another， is around 20%。 A little bit lower， but around 20%。
So let's think for a second about what that means。
So if we're losing around 20% of our customers at any given time。
how long do we expect those customers to stay with us？ Pretty simple math question。
Let me make it even simpler。 Suppose the attrition rate were 50%。
because suppose we're losing half our customers every period， God forbid。
then how long is the typical customer staying with us？ If our attrition rate is 50%。
then a typical lifetime would be around two years。 So if the attrition rate is around 20%。
the typical lifetime is around five years。 If it's a little bit less than 20%。
it'll be a little bit greater than five years。 So if we want to come up with kind of a quick and dirty evaluation。
not just for a given customer， but for the entire customer base。
if our attrition rate's a little under 20%， that means a typical customer is with us for a little over five years。
we can multiply that by the amount of revenue per customer。
multiply that by the size of the customer base， and boom， that's our customer equity。
That's the value of the firm， at least again， as a first pass approximation。
And I don't want to understate that。 There's a lot of companies out there that are doing exactly that kind of calculation。
to figure out what their customers are worth。 So here's my question。 What's wrong with this picture？
That sounds like a very nice calculation。 It's great to see their attrition rate。
but what's wrong with it？ What's missing？ What is it that we really want to see？
I contend that it's not enough to see the attrition rate for the customer base as a whole。
but what is it that we celebrate in the customer-centric world？ You got it。
We celebrate heterogeneity。 We don't want to just see a single number。
We don't want to say what does the attrition rate look like for an average customer。
because there is no average customer。 We want to know how that attrition rate。
how that attrition propensity varies across the customers。 So here's what I want you to think about。
And this is a very， very important question。 How does the attrition propensity vary across the customers？
Just imagine if we can reach into the mind of each and every customer。
and pull out just how churn-prone or not churn-prone they are。
How likely they are to leave at any given time。 And we look at those numbers across the customer base。
What will that distribution look like？ Will we tend to have a lot of very churn-prone customers？
Will we have a lot of customers who tend to stick around for a while？
Will it be kind of a nice bell-shaped， normal distribution？ Who knows？ Well， I know， and you know。
and I think it's a very important question。 So let me show you what it looks like for a Vodafone。
but before I do， I want to emphasize to you that the figure you're about to see is actually very。
very typical。 This is the basic shape that we see for almost all businesses。
not just in telecommunications， not just for a phone company that primarily operates in Europe。
but for pretty much any company that operates on some kind of contractual subscription basis。
And here's what it looks like。 Here is the celebration of heterogeneity for Vodafone。
So don't ask me where the numbers come from。 Again。
it comes through these are numbers that Vodafone calculated on their own， and to their credit。
shared with their investors， and they broke their customer base into three groups。
And they found that these three groups vary in terms of their churn or attrition rates。
They found that there's one real small group that has a very high attrition rate。
So those are people who are very， very likely to leave， you know， the next possible opportunity。
and then there's this middle-sized， middle attrition group。
and then there's this largest group to the left that has a fairly low attrition rate。
So first thing I want to ask is， is this good news or bad news for Vodafone， for most companies？
And the answer is， yeah， it's pretty good news。 It suggests that most of their companies。
most of the customers， tend to stick around for a while。
and don't have a propensity to leave right away。 Now the next question is， why is that？ I mean。
again， it's great to know， but what is it about those customers？
What words would be used to describe the customers with the fairly low attrition rates？
What most companies， what most managers like to use would be a word like loyal。
Those customers are really loyal。 They love us。 They'll run through the gates of hell to stay with us。
Maybe。 That's probably true for some of the customers。
but what other words could we use to describe them？ How about words like lazy， inertial。
indifferent？ Maybe they just don't care very much。
They're not very involved with this particular product or service。
They're working with the service provider， and it doesn't really matter enough to them to decide。
whether to stay or whether to go。 They just don't care very much。 Now。
I don't know what the breakdown is here。 We have this big bar to the left。 Some of them are loyal。
Some of them are lazy。 I don't know。 And for the purposes of this exercise。
I don't necessarily care。 But I do want to emphasize that when we see all of those customers who tend to have a low attrition rate。
it's not necessarily a reflection of great marketing or strong branding on our part。
Although it might be， it might be that a lot of customers just don't care very much。
So let's keep that in mind。 So here's my question。 Now that we're celebrating heterogeneity。
what difference does it make？ How are we going to use the information that you see on this chart in order to make a more informed assessment。
of what the customer base is worth？ So let me make it a little bit easier for you。
In addition to the graph， I'm just going to look carefully at the graph and pick off the various numbers。
And you see this table over here that shows you both the size of each of the three groups。
what percent of the customer base is associated with each of these three groups。
and the attrition rate。 Okay， again， as we see， the high， medium， low risk of churning。
So let's do the math right now。 In fact， take a moment and think about how you would take this information that's in front of you。
and combine it together in order to come up with an overall value of the customer base。
What would you do？ Think about that。 Okay， let's talk about the calculation。
Here's what I suspect most of you did。 You probably took a weighted average。 You said， "Look。
we understand the breakdown of our customer base， 70%， 20%， 10% into the low， medium。
and high risk groups， and then they have their associated attrition rates。"。
And so you took a simple weighted average。 You multiplied 0。7 by 0。06， and so on and so on。
and so on。 You did the calculation。 And as it says right here。
the overall average attrition rate would be 17。7%。
And what does that average attrition rate tell us about the overall length of the customer's life。
and therefore the overall financial value of the customer base？ Well， once again， 1 over 17。7%。
do that calculation。 You get 5。6 years。 Well， that sounds kind of familiar， right？
Isn't that just about the same number that we got when we didn't celebrate heterogeneity？
So what difference does it make？ Why is taking heterogeneity account going to help us at all here？
I'll tell you why， because you did the wrong calculation。 You did calculate an overall average。
but like we've said before， there is no average customer telling me that the average attrition rate is 17。
7% doesn't do me any good， because there is no customer out there。
at least according to the vote of phone analysis， who has that kind of attrition rate。
So we've just calculated an expected lifetime， an expected financial value for a customer who does not exist。
So the question is， what's wrong with this calculation？ How do we do it the right way？
How do we truly celebrate heterogeneity？ Because what we did here is we eliminated heterogeneity。
We just squashed it all together and said heterogeneity is gone。
and that's why we ended up getting the same result that we would have gotten if we didn't look at heterogeneity in the first place。
So what's wrong with this calculation and what's the right way to do it？
So think about that for a moment， and then I'll give you a super big hint from one of the world's leading thinkers about customer loyalty and so on。
So let's turn to the words of Frederick Raikeld， who a number of years ago。
wrote a book called The Loyalty Effect， and he laid out some many。
many good ideas about what loyalty is， how we measure it， how we capture it。
He's a consultant for Bain， so it's not an academic。
so he's really seen loyalty in action and has helped a lot of companies create and monetize it。
And here's the quote from Raikeld。 You can see it here， and I hope the logic makes a lot of sense。
The average makes no sense at all。 We need to do the calculations separately， group by group。 Okay。
so that's where the celebration of heterogeneity is going to come in。
Let's understand the separate value for the high， medium， and low。
and then combine them together instead of combining them together first。 I hope that makes sense。
Perhaps your inclination is to say， seems kind of similar。 You know。
let's take an average and then calculate the lifetime。
or let's calculate the lifetime and then take an average。 Seems kind of similar， but you know what。
it's not。 So let's revisit this example， but do the lifetime calculation first。 Okay。
so for our low risk customers， the average attrition rate is 。06。 So what does that mean？
Just for those customers， how long are they going to stick around on average？ So what's 1 over 。06？
Well， as you can see here， it's about 16。7 years。 And if we repeat that calculation for the other two groups。
you can see what their expected lifetime would be。 And here you see the really dramatic differences。
This is the celebration of heterogeneity。 We see an order of magnitude difference between the best and the worst customers。
We don't want to ignore that。 We don't want to eliminate that。 We don't want to average over that。
We want to celebrate that。 Once we see the expected lifetimes for each of these different customer groups。
then let's take the weighted average。 Then we'll multiply by 70， 20， and 10%。 And when we do that。
what do we get？ Our overall expected lifetime for this customer base， 12。4 years。
That's a big difference。 I'm sure you'll agree。 So instead of doing the calculation the wrong way。
where we weren't celebrating heterogeneity， once we acknowledge and explicitly take into account heterogeneity。
we have more than doubled the value of our customer base。 Just like that。 Not by doing anything。
just by doing the correct calculation。 This is the celebration of heterogeneity。
Now you might be wondering， all right， so this is this Vodafone example。
How does this work in general？ Answer always works the same way。
Whenever there's any heterogeneity at all， any spread among the customers in terms of their attrition rates。
there will always be money left on the table if we ignore heterogeneity。
We will always understate the value of the customer base by ignoring heterogeneity。
The only question is how much？ So in this case it's a more than two fold increase。
And as you might imagine， the magnitude of that increase depends entirely on the magnitude and nature of the heterogeneity。
So if the customers are more spread out， then ignoring heterogeneity is going to cause us an even steeper understatement of the customer value。
So again， it's not a question of whether it will occur。
It's not a question of whether it will be an overstatement or an understatement。
It always works this way。 It's just a question of how much。
Now if that's not a celebration of heterogeneity， then I don't know what is。
But this shows you that by explicitly accounting for heterogeneity。
by really understanding the differences among our good customers and our not so good customers。
we have just doubled the value in our company。 Now you might wonder。
so what are the implications of that for managing our customer base？ And this is really。
really important， especially for all of you who voted for customer retention as the activity that we should be putting our incremental dollars on。
So let's summarize our thinking about customer retention。
And there's two really important points that I want to make over here。 First and foremost。
there is no average customer。 And you can't do calculations based on an average customer。 Yes。
it's easy。 Yes， it's convenient， but it's wrong。 You will always understate the value of your customer base。
and that difference can be huge if you ignore the heterogeneity。 And here's the second point。
It's much more subtle， and I'll spare you the painful math to get there。
But if we ever want to calculate an elasticity， if we ever want to find out what's the incremental gain that we get for say a 1% reduction in the attrition rate？
It turns out we can do that calculation two ways。 If we do it by ignoring heterogeneity。
as many firms do， or if we do it by taking heterogeneity into account as we just did。
we get a very different conclusion。 So in some of my research。
we've actually done that calculation separately， and we show that the retention elasticity。
the gain that we get by lowering the attrition rate by 1% is much， much less。
When you account for heterogeneity。 Which means that efforts to boost retention。
or decrease attrition， or churn， are much more modest than you think they are。
once you explicitly account for heterogeneity。 Now， I want to be really clear about this。
I am not saying that you should stop spending on retention。 No， I am not saying that at all。 Okay。
retention is one of our three major pillars of customer centricity。 It is very， very important。
You want to figure out who the good customers are。
and do whatever it takes to keep them around for a long time。 You must do that。 But at the margin。
companies seem to want to spend more and more and more on retention。
That seems to be the constraint for them。 I contend that some companies might actually be overspending on retention。
And taking some of those retention dollars， which are often being allocated to customers who aren't really that great。
To customers who have a fairly high attrition rate。
and are always going to have a high attrition rate。
Even if we kind of bribe them or incent them to stay around for another year or two。
they are going to leave at the first opportunity after that。
We are better off taking some of those dollars and spending them where？ On customer acquisition。
Let's spend some of those dollars finding new customers who might be really good。
So right away you are starting to see some of the implications。
some of the trade-offs between acquisition and retention that arise when we have an explicit focus on heterogeneity。
So that's the retention story。 Let's take a short break and come back and talk about customer development。
[Music]。
沃顿商学院《商务基础》｜Business Foundations Specialization｜（中英字幕） - P148：5_客户发展3 07.zh_en - GPT中英字幕课程资源 - BV1R34y1c74c
[MUSIC]。
Now we're going to talk about customer development。 And before I ask you the same question。
I first want to be real clear what we mean by customer development。
The general idea is we want to make our customers as valuable as possible。
Our existing customers as valuable as possible。 And so what are the tactics associated with customer development？
What are the kinds of things that companies do in order to create and。
extract more value from their existing customers？ And we usually think about four different tactics。
You can think about for yourself as a manager or as a customer how you increase value。
And let's just review them real quickly and then we'll go on and talk about managing。
customer development。 So number one， there's cross selling。
The idea of getting customers to buy more than just the particular product that。
they're interested in。 So here in the US millions of time a day， we hear people asking。
do you want fries with that？ That's an example of cross selling。
Getting people to buy other products。 They could either be from the same product category。
like at an amazon。com recommending other books to you or other product categories。 Cross selling。
Next to cross selling would be up selling。 And of course the classic fast food example there would be。
do you want to supersize it？ So try to get people to buy a higher margin version of the same item。
Up selling。 Again， very common not just in fast food， but in financial services and， many。
many industries。 You want to get people， once they're going to buy something。
let's get them to buy the good something。 Those are the big two。 The third one would be frequency。
Let's just try to get people to buy our stuff more often。
Very often that's why companies use loyalty programs。
So let's give people just a little bit of motivation。 Not just to buy this product。
but to buy it on a more frequent basis。 So again， a very common source of customer development there。
And the fourth one， which companies don't like to talk about， but they like to do。
or at least they wish they could do， would be through margins。 Maybe not just upselling people。
but maybe we can get people to pay more money， for the same product or service。
A lot of companies are very hesitant to do that。 They don't want to mess around charging different prices for。
the same product or service to different people。 But as we discussed way back earlier when we were laying out the case for。
customer centricity， sometimes it makes a lot of sense to do so。 So whether it's cross selling。
up selling， frequency or margin。 And I'm not going to get into the nitty gritty details of exactly how we do those things。
But I just want to understand customer development as a whole。
How we measure it and where it fits in with acquisition and retention。
[MUSIC]。
沃顿商学院《商务基础》｜Business Foundations Specialization｜（中英字幕） - P149：6_品牌和数字营销14 01.zh_en - GPT中英字幕课程资源 - BV1R34y1c74c
[MUSIC]。
Okay， so we just finished talking about marketing math 101。
So hopefully that's a good framework for you guys to think about when you think about what's going to work in terms of execution and what's not。
One other thing that I want to overlay in the introduction that's going to be very。
very important in terms of execution is this whole idea of digital marketing。
So using the device is enabled by technology， the internet and mobile phones to make marketing more effective and more efficient。
So definition of digital marketing， you just look up on Wikipedia。
is digital marketing is the use of internet connected devices to engage a customer。
which is all well and good。 But the key thing I want us to remember is it's still marketing。
So we still have to have the right brand， the right promotional message。
the right customer strategy and so on。
So marketing in fact is probably more non-negotiable than ever because of digital marketing。
If we get things wrong， that word is going to get out more quickly。
So just a couple of other examples of why digital marketing though is interesting and why it's going to be important to execution。
First of all， there's a notion of something called social commerce。
So commerce has never been more engaged with multiple individuals than it is now。 So most of us。
certainly in the United States， before we try new products or services。
look to reviews often by complete strangers。
Could you imagine going into a city and going to try a restaurant without at first checking the reviews on something like Yelp。
com or maybe going to open table or another one of those devices？
Would you buy a book on Amazon without looking at the reviews first？ So commerce is much。
much more social。 People taking cues from other people。
both friends and strangers and we'll be talking about that。 The second thing that's really。
really interesting with digital marketing is probably more than ever。
There's now an ability to really target people at a micro level based on their browsing behavior on the internet based on how they use social media and using things like big data to discover who it is that you are。
what you're doing and to send your messages that are more and more precise and more and more engaging。
That's the second important trend and that will be coming through in some of our discussions later on too。
The third thing about digital marketing that's very。
very interesting is it's never been easier to experiment。
So say my friend Chris and I have a new business selling shoes on the internet and we don't know whether we should make the website blue or red。
well we could just try it out。
In fact an experiment like this was done at the Walton score not so long ago where we were getting people to come to a website to choose different kinds of automobiles。
And what we noticed if the background of the website was red and there were almost small little flames in the background。
people who went to that website were more likely to choose automobiles that had high ratings on safety。
Perhaps somehow the red color was making them think things were dangerous。
On the other hand if we sent people to a green website with a green background。
looked a little bit more like money and dollar signs。
those people were much more focused on automobiles that were better value for money。
So those things can be very， very easily tested out。
In fact some data suggests that there's been more experiments run in the last year 2012 than all the prior years put together。
So those are three very important trends in digital marketing， social commerce。
digital advertising and behavioral targeting and then the ability to experiment。
Okay， so now let's transition into the first of the assets that we have as marketers to execute on。
That's the brand asset。 So I'm just going to review some of the things that Barbara talked about and add a couple of additional ideas that become important when you execute in a digital environment。
So first of all just to motivate us as to why brands are important。
again continuing from Barbara's theme。 We notice now that about half of the assets that are howled around the world are non-tangible assets giving value。
Think of a company like Google。 Google recently celebrated its 15th year anniversary and is one of the most important brands in the world。
not because it has some of the most important assets。
Not because it has huge factories and huge physical plant but because it has intellectual capital。
That's kind of the idea there。 Second thing is about one third of the value tied up in the global stock market studies have shown it due to brands and the premium that people pay for brands。
And then thirdly my colleague here Jeremy Segal who is a finance professor at the Wharton School wrote a book called Stocks for the Long Run in which he looked at performance of stocks over a 50 year period from 1953 to 2003 on the New York Stock Exchange。
And one thing that he found was that brands that were very strong and widely perceived as valuable by customers actually had also stocks that outperformed the market。
So that's three interesting pieces of evidence about the brand asset。
Of course as Barbara mentioned to you branding is also perception as much as it is reality。
So behind me on the screen there's a shot of six brands of beer some of them you might recognize and this was a study that was done way way back in 1964 believe it or not。
Before most of us were born I believe。 And these six brands of beer were given to people in paper cups。
Brand A was Pabs。 Brand B was Colt 45 and so on。 And then people were asked to drink these brands in paper cups and afterwards to answer the following question。
How similar is brand A to brand B？ So A is Pabs。 B is Colt 45 but they don't know that because they're drinking out of a paper cup。
And what you notice there is all of those brands from Pabs to around to Bobweiser were all perceived by customers drinking from paper cups to be almost the same。
And yet that other guy all the way over to the right in the perception of Guinness which if you drink Guinness is a dark heavy beer at least they could figure out well gee that one's different。
Now what was really interesting with this experiment was repeated here's the next chart where people were drinking out of the bottles and asked how similar they thought these beers were to each other。
We get this big spread that's the difference between perception and reality and the importance of brand all of those great things that Barbara was talking about。
So just quickly again these are the top brands in the world as mentioned by Interbrand in 2013 the surveys just come out。
The top 10 that you see there it's the same top 10 as last year but the orders changed a little bit。
For many years Coca-Cola was the number one brand in the world。
Now Apple is the number one brand and number two is Google。
I'm not saying there's too much you can do with this information but it's kind of nice to see as a marketing person。
We'd be talking about those brands and of course also our focal brand and family of brands for the course Quidzy。
com。 So now I'm showing on the slide the family of Quidzy brands that we've talked about a little bit as we've gone through diapers。
com soap。com and so on。 So in addition to those kind of famous brands these new brands are brands that we'll be talking about。
A couple of others that we're going to spend some time on as well。
Warby Parker I'd encourage you to go to the website of these brands。
Warby Parker is a company that's disrupting eyewear。
Harry's is the shaving company that I mentioned earlier。
Benobos is a means clothing company here in the United States that does some interesting online offline omnichannel strategy that we'll be talking about in a subsequent session。
And of course diapers。com。
So what are some additional things that you do when you develop a brand in a digital environment and you try and execute on all of those things that Barbara talked about？
Well just going back to basics you think about your brand goal which is to affect people's heart。
mind， thinking and feeling and sometimes action。 So you want to change the way people feel by showing them certain messages。
You want to change the way they think and sometimes you want to get them to do stuff。
So let me give you some examples there。
So Google and again I'd encourage you to go to Google and Google this。
I recently ran an ad campaign in the United States called DSOFI。
It was a very heart rendering campaign。 If you watch the video you might want to have some tissues with you because it's a beautiful story of a child being born and a father essentially sending email making YouTube videos and communicating with his daughter through her life using all of the products that Google has。
Now why is Google doing that？ Well they're trying to build an emotional connection to make you think that they really interact with you in a much deeper way than just purely through search。
So that's an example of a brand using a digital marketing campaign to try and affect your heart。
Thinking， one of my favorite ones here this is an old one but you know we all have different ways of getting our protein。
Maybe we like tofu， maybe like fish。 If you're a Kiwi like me you like lamb。
perhaps you like beef but anyway it wasn't so long ago that studies were done that showed that white meat was probably better for us than red meat。
So clearly chicken and fish are on the white side。
Beef and lamb are probably on the red side but if you're pork now which way do you go？
You know you're more like the beef and lamb or more like the fish and chicken and so it's a very clever market。
So those came up with a slogan "Pork the other white meat"。 So now when I think pork I think white。
white is good。 I'm sure they got a good sales lift out of that。
That's an example of changing your mind。 Getting you into action。
another great campaign again it was used in the United States but I saw a similar campaign back at my home country in New Zealand。
It's difficult to get people to drink more milk because you drink milk at a pretty regular rate and so in the United States there was a campaign that was run here that was called Got Milk。
And the idea was to sort of create a fear if I somehow ran out of milk。
So I have my friend Chris comes to my house reading a whole bunch of cookies while watching TV and of course what do you have with cookies but milk we go to the fridge and there's no milk。
So sort of instilling this panic that if I don't have milk things are going to be really bad so I should go out and buy more。
So those are examples of tactics to affect thinking， feeling and action。
Now what's different in digital marketing execution is sometimes you want to build this engagement through real world events that you can then leverage in the virtual world and I'm going to show examples of that using social media and so on to get the message out。
So what are these additional digital considerations？
So in the slide in the black you still have to have an outstanding value proposition and great positioning but there's three other things that you have to do to execute in the digital environment。
You need to be authentic and transparent。 Barbara's already talked a little bit about that。
Secondly you need to create a personality and be humanised and accessible。
And then thirdly you need to consider that pretty much everything you do in terms of messages that you put out are going to have an infinite life and also you want to put out messages that potentially allow you to capitalise on chance or serendipity。
I'll show an example of that in a moment。 So here's the first example。
There's a company again here in the United States but many of you have probably heard of this。
It's called JetBlue。 JetBlue is an airline that flies internally around the US。
And a few years ago they ran a campaign called AYCJ。 All you can jet。
And for $600 or $599 you could buy a ticket that would allow you to fly anywhere for an entire month。
People responded to this very well。 It was promoted over Twitter。
They got about a 700% lift in traffic to the website。 Very， very successful campaign。
But here's the extra brand consideration to think about in a digital environment。
It just so happened a gentleman named Drew Lawrence was going on a campaign 29 cities in 29 days。
He was trying to raise money for cancer。 Very worthy thing to do。
And he took advantage of this promotion。 And when he took advantage of this promotion this was picked up by news outlets and traditional media。
And of course generated a tremendous lift to the campaign for JetBlue。
So that's what I'm saying in terms of capitalizing on serendipity or putting messages out into the digital environment that allow other good things to continue on。
You also have to be a little bit careful in the digital environment。
I'm going to show you a slide now of McDonald's。 One of the world's top brands as we saw in a previous slide。
Who tried to start in Twitter a hashtag called McD stories。
Hopefully so that I would go there and talk about the great time I had with my friend chomping on a big Mac。
Unfortunately this Twitter hashtag was hijacked by people who didn't like McDonald's。
Who then produced some really kind of negative things about the company。
Some of which I've shared with you。 So that's making the point that you just have to be careful because of the way people are going to capitalize in the digital environment for better or for worse on your marketing initiatives。
Then the final thing I'd like to say here about branding before we just continue on and executing on the brand asset is back in the old days。
If you weren't that far away。 We used to use celebrity sometimes to endorse our brands。
In fact it's still a fairly common tactic。 People like Tiger Woods or Michael Jordan。
People like Shaquille O'Neal。 So let me give you an example with Shaquille O'Neal。
I happen to like Shaquille O'Neal。 He seems like a good guy。 He's a good basketball player as well。
I believe he recently completed his PhD and he's also a part time policeman who couldn't like Shaquille。
So you see Shaquille on TV in the United States promoting the Buick。
So part of the good feeling I have about Shaquille then transfers over onto the Buick。
That's great news for the automobile Buick because now I feel better about Buick。
But at the same time I kind of stepped back a little bit and said you know what？
I don't know if Shaquille O'Neal is really driving a Buick。
That doesn't seem fancy enough for Shaquille。 So there's a bit of a mismatch between the personality and also the brand that's being promoted。
But of course in the age of YouTube and social media what we now have is we have so-called organic celebrities springing up。
So what I'm showing on the slide here is a lady called Redrummond who has positioned herself as the so-called pioneer woman。
So she knows everything about southern cooking， southern way of living in the United States。
manners， baking and so forth。 So if I were land of lakes butter who would be a better person to promote my product？
Really or some famous actress？ And then the age of 2013 really is a better person because she's organic and she's authentic。
[Music]。
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沃顿商学院《商务基础》｜Business Foundations Specialization｜（中英字幕） - P15：14_更多关于客户本位的思考.zh_en - GPT中英字幕课程资源 - BV1R34y1c74c
I'm going to spend a little bit more time thinking about the distinction between those。
really focal， those really valuable customers and the not so valuable ones。
How do we achieve the right balance there？ If you take my words a little bit too literally。
I keep focusing on the valuable， valuable， customers and I keep saying let's just zoom our whole business around them。
If we were to do that then we'd come very vulnerable。
We have all of our eggs in one basket and what happens if we're wrong about them？
What happens if there's other customers out there who are fairly valuable？
What happens if something changes to our product or in the marketplace that turns those really。
valuable customers against us？ So how do we find the right balance？
And so here I want to raise an important but subtle point。
The idea that the more we zoom in on those really focal customers， the more we need the。
less valuable customers in order to have a stable mix。
The metaphor that I like to use here comes from finance。
We want to have some really high flying stocks in our financial portfolio。 High risk， high return。
We definitely want to have some of them。 Those are going to be where the real growth comes from。
But the day to day stability comes from the more predictable ones， the cash， the bonds， and so on。
So in our customer mix we want to have that same kind of portfolio approach。
We want to have a large number of the stable， predictable but potentially not very valuable。
customers that we're going to balance off with the high flyer customers， the really， focal ones。
This is where I come up with the notion of the paradox of customer centricity。 It goes like this。
The more we zoom in on those really valuable customers， the more we need those other customers。
around in order to have a stable balance for the company as a whole。 You see。
with only a few exceptions， no company can be truly， purely customer centric。
If you're a private wealth manager and your customer base consists of four billionaires， yes。
you can be totally customer centric。 You know everything about every one of them。
You can be a trusted advisor to each one of them。 But if you have millions or tens or hundreds of millions of customers。
it's a matter of， finding that just right balance between being truly customer centric with the customer segments。
that we see as really valuable， but being product centric with the remaining customers。
who aren't as valuable， being operationally efficient with them。
Now the difference between a true product centric firm is that we're not going to let。
those so-so customers drive the business。 We're going to continue to focus on the customer centric ones for growth。
We're going to continue to focus a disproportionate amount of our R&D activity on those really。
good customers， coming up with products for them， hoping and finding ways to make those。
same products palatable and attractive for the product centric customers， but it's a matter。
of finding that balance。 That's the paradox of customer centricity and one of the challenges for firms is to figure。
out how to do that well。 [MUSIC]。
沃顿商学院《商务基础》｜Business Foundations Specialization｜（中英字幕） - P150：7_客户和数字营销9 49.zh_en - GPT中英字幕课程资源 - BV1R34y1c74c
[MUSIC]。
Okay， let's continue on now to Pete's area， which is customer assets。
I'm just again going to add a couple of little things here in terms of digital considerations and。
additional things we have to think about for execution。 So as Pete told you， I'm sure very。
very clearly， your key goals are to attract， engage， and， retain the right kind of customers。
Some customers， as Pete told you， you actually want to get rid of because of the heterogeneity。
one of our favorite buzzwords here at the Wharton School， in the customer base。
Some customers are just not worth hanging on to。 So as Pete has told you。
you should never ever pay more to acquire a customer than you can expect to get back。
So the customer lifetime value of my friend Chris， who's renting cars from Hertz。
should be higher than what Hertz had to pay to get Chris as a customer。
The second thing that's very important though is that the CLV， the customer lifetime value。
when executed in the digital marketing environment， needs to also consider what I call our LV。
That's referral lifetime value。 So let's imagine that I have a beard， actually don't today。
but if I have a beard and I don't shave， I probably have a very low customer lifetime value to Harry's。
com， the shaving company。 However， if I'm a popular guy and I tell a lot of my friends about Harry's。
com， I might have a very， very high referral lifetime value because I'm bringing other people to the party。
So let me give you an example。 From data based on diapers。com， one of our case study companies。
that just shows how powerful this point is。 So a few years ago， my colleague， John， and I。
got all of the data from diapers。com， and we looked at the first 100。
000 customers that became customers at diapers。com。 And back in those days。
if I were a customer of diapers。com and I sent an email referral to my friend Amy。
and then Amy made a purchase at diapers。com， I would get a $1 credit towards buying more diapers。
Also， what I could do is I could print out physical coupons and put them on all the cars on Walnut Street here in Philadelphia。
and some stranger might pick them up and take my code and enter it。
and then I would get a credit if they became a customer。 So two things were very。
very interesting to us about this process。 First of all， about 8，000 of those 100。
000 customers engaged in this customer based promotional word of mouth， if you will。
That's kind of interesting。 About 8% of the people were motivated to go and try and acquire other customers on behalf of the firm。
Now， of course， again， going back to what Pete talked about， we all know about averages。
It's an important measure。 So the average number of people that were brought in by a referring customer was about 4。
So those 8，000 people generated 32，000 new customers for diapers。com。 It's a pretty powerful number。
But again， in the internet， it's not just the average that's important。
The internet is the world of extremes。 There's going to be some customers out there that just love you so much。
They may go completely nuts， as it were。 And so it turned out when we looked carefully at the data。
the top 100 customers were generating about 15，000 other customers。
So think about that， about 150 each。 So again， when you execute your customer strategies in the digital age。
one of the most important things you can do is you can encourage your existing customers to refer other customers。
So let me just summarize that， the digital considerations。
So non-negotiable in the black at the top of the slide is that you must still attract the right target customers。
Pete has been talking about for the last few weeks。 However。
there are three interesting nuances that come into play here。 First of all。
your interaction with customers changes from just a monologue， you sending out messages。
now into a conversation。 So let me give you a personal example。
Recently， I've been flying from Philadelphia to San Francisco to our West Coast campus。
and where possible， I try and fly on Virgin America。 It's a great airline。
I think they really know what they're doing in terms of marketing。 And when I get on the airline。
sometimes I send a tweet。 I'm happy to be on VX141 looking forward to the Sushi and Beer。
And sure enough， within a few moments later， Virgin will tweet back to me and engage me in a conversation。
In fact， on a recent flight， I received a direct message from somebody at Virgin telling me if I took a screenshot of my status on United Airlines that Virgin would match it。
So think about the power of that medium to change from a monologue to a conversation。
So that's going to be an important theme。 How can we use technology to engage in real conversations with our customers？
The second thing that we can do with customers is we can amplify activities that go on in the real world out into the virtual world。
So an example that I'll get more into a little bit later on is way back in September 2011。
WarbyParker。com， another company that I'll talk about a little bit。
staged an event in the New York Public Library where their friends went in there and took over a whole floor wearing Warby Parker glasses。
This was， of course， picked up by the traditional press and then there was an amplification from that real world event pushed out through the virtual world。
And then finally， the third point is we need to be aware of this possibility of what I'll call the long tail leverage。
The long tail is the idea， the conceptual idea。 There are some people who are just sort of extreme。
like those customers for diapers。com that referred 150 customers each when the average was only four。
So how do we use technology to tap into who those people are？
Okay， one final thing I'd like to mention here， guys， a little bit of a technical term。
but it's a very， very interesting distinction that's important for thinking about how to execute with customers through things like loyalty programs and referral programs and so on。
So I wanted to distinguish two effects。 The first is what I'll call a selection effect and the second is what I'll call a treatment effect。
And both of these things are very， very important to companies who want to get customers to acquire new customers。
So let's start with a selection effect。
So imagine I'm a customer of diapers。com and diapers。
com is going to give me some cash or some points if I refer somebody else。 Now。
I happen to refer my friend Chris just because I know that he recently had twins。 Now。
the CEO of diapers。com doesn't know that， but I know that。
So I'm better able to find a new customer than the management of the company。
That's the idea of a selection effect。 So the person who's doing the referring is deliberately picking out people who are going to be very。
very appropriate for the good old service。 That's the selection effect。
And my colleague here at the Wharton School， Christol Vandenbald。
has shown that customers who are attracted through word of mouth and through referral have higher customer lifetime values than those who are not。
Because of this selection effect。 The second effect is what I'll call the treatment effect。
The treatment effect says， "Well， how did Chris come to be introduced to diapers。com？"。
It wasn't through Google search。 It wasn't through seeing an advertisement。
But he got introduced through me， his trusted friend。
And because that was the way he found out about something。
it's more natural then for him to engage in the same practice。 So when we looked at that diapers。
com data， remember I said on average， there was about an 8-10% rate of referral。 Well。
if a customer was acquired， because of referral， the chance that they then referred went up to about 15-18%。
So that's the difference between a treatment effect and a selection effect。
But both of those things are very， very important。
Okay， I'm just going to wrap up now with the third asset。
Remember we're talking about three assets that we have as marketers to execute on。
Number one is the brand。 We've just gone through。 Number two is the customer。
And then the third one that I mentioned at the beginning of this module is that marketing expenditure itself also should be thought of as an asset。
And again， the naive way of thinking about marketing is we have top line sales minus what we spend on marketing or advertising is equal to our profit。
Now， if we make that marketing spend equal to zero。
it's not the case that our profit will go up by the same amount。 Why is that？ Because the marketing。
of course， is contributing to the sales and to the top line growth。
That's something that will be exploring in more detail as we go ahead。
The final piece of food for thought for today is the following。 I'd just like to encourage you。
as you've been doing already on your own， is to go out and look at some examples that reinforce the points that we were making。
So the first thing I'd like you to do just over the next few days is to try and think about some experience that you have buying coffee。
paying for something， booking a hotel， communicating with your friends。
keeping track of your appointments。 Whatever it is， it's just not as good as it could be。
And try and think about how this status quo situation could be solved or fixed in the same way that Howard Schultz figured out that the coffee situation in America was suboptimal and he fixed it by introducing Starbucks。
The second thing I'd like you to do is go to the website warbyparker。com。
they're listed on the slides， and try and think about what you've learned from Barbara and also our additional discussion today about how in the digital age。
a brand needs to be authentic， transparent， and humanized。
And try and see what elements of the execution in that website touch on those three points。
Great， hopefully you'll have a good time doing that。
We'll come back to those examples as we go through， and that's the end of this particular piece。
[Music]。
(lively music)。
